As Opening Day nears, I'll preview and make 2026 MLB predictions for various markets, including team futures (win total over/unders, playoffs, World Series), player awards, and regular-season stat leaders.
Make sure to check out my other preseason futures previews, including Team Futures and Player Awards (coming soon).
For this article, I'm covering my MLB player prop and stat leader predictions and picks.
Generally, these markets encompass category leaders for wins, strikeouts, and saves for pitchers, and home runs, RBI, steals, and hits for batters. However, this season, I'll also cover player prop Over/Unders, and statistical milestones (e.g., 30+ HR, 40+ HR, etc.).
Below, I'll provide my projections and simulated outcomes (using a Monte Carlo simulation) for these statistics, guide you through each category, and tell you where I'm placing my money for the 2026 MLB season.
Bear in mind, this article is loaded with bets, but the breakdown of potential edges is starred as follows:
There are four top picks (10%+ edges, labeled four stars), 34 strong edges (5-10%, labeled three stars), 63 two-star edges (2-5%), and up to 92 one-star leans (0.5%-1.9%) or borderline bets.
Pick a few bigger edges you really like and increase bet sizing, or spray the board and build player portfolios for smaller stakes. I have over 90 bets in this article, but allocated 9.3 units among them, compared to 21.3 units across 26 team futures, and 2.4 units across 24 awards bets. I also don't have more than a half unit allocated to any specific player – one injury won't kill me.
As a reminder, I will post any new bets to the Action Network app. Download the app, follow me, and get notifications when I place a bet.
| Click on a category to skip ahead |
| Pitcher Wins |
| Pitcher Strikeouts |
| Pitcher Saves |
| Batter Hits |
| Batter RBIs |
| Batter Stolen Bases |
| Batter Home Runs |
| All Wagers |
| Downloadable Model Edges |
MLB Futures Bets: Pitching Stat Leaders
Pitcher Wins
Below are my projected pitching wins leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their simulated odds to lead the category (minimum 1% chance of winning) or to hit certain statistical milestones, and their listed outright and prop odds from the betting market.
Alternatively, you can use this link to view these oddsboards in Excel.
Note that while I will provide my average projection for each player across every statistical category, each athlete has a different range of projected performance outcomes (some highly variable, others less so) and a different chance of getting injured.
As a result, a pitcher or hitter with a lower average projection (E.g., Tatsuya Imai, projected 7.4 wins) may have a higher chance of actually leading a category or exceeding statistical benchmarks than peers with seemingly more reliable playing time projected above them for that category. This will become even more noticeable in other categories down the line.
Wins are far more team-dependent than our next category, strikeouts, and, as a result, more longshot pitchers have a chance to end the season with the wins lead. I project up to 44 potential wins leaders with a probability of greater than 0.5%, compared to 27 potential strikeout kings ranked higher than a half a percentage point, and the combined outright chances for the top five favorites in strikeouts are nearly double that of the top choices for wins (63% vs. 32%).
We cashed a Max Fried outright (+4000) ticket in this category last season and have several intriguing longshot options for 2026.
I have found that the eventual wins leader correlates just as strongly with preseason quality start projections as they do with preseason win projections.
My candidates — Logan Webb (85 quality starts since 2022, first in MLB), Framber Valdez (83, second), Zac Gallen (66, eighth), and George Kirby (63, 13th) — not only project among both the wins and quality start leaders for 2026, but have already proven to rank among the most reliable arms at pitching well deep into games and giving themselves a chance to win with adequate run support.
In fact, Valdez (57, 14.25 per season), Gallen (56, 14 per season), and Webb (54, 13.5 per season) are the top three pitchers in wins over the past four seasons combined, while Kirby is 13th (11.25 per season) in 14.3 fewer starts (on average) compared to the aforementioned trio.
Converting quality starts to a rate stat, those same four pitchers rank fourth, second, 16th, and 26th in quality starts on a per-start basis over the same span, and many of the top-ranked pitchers on that rate leaderboard (Zach Wheeler, first; Shane Bieber, third; Corbin Burnes, fifth; Gerrit Cole, sixth; Joe Musgrove, seventh) are either nursing injuries or not expected to pitch full seasons heading into spring.
Paul Skenes (eighth in quality start per start since 2022), Fried (ninth), Tarik Skubal (12th), Hunter Brown (14th), and Cristopher Sanchez (17th) should remain top contenders, but my model prefers the bolded, albeit negligible edges.
Garrett Crochet increased his quality start rate from 34% in 2024 to 68.8% in 2025, a figure that would rank just behind the rates posted by Wheeler (69.2%) and Framber (68.6%) over their four-year samples. Crochet makes a solid second choice, but I wouldn't take anything worse than +1200.
Bryan Woo posted a quality start in 70% of his outings this season, and his outright projection isn't far off from the market. Still, I think there are better ways to bet on Woo in a different market than to bet on wins at a more actionable edge, whereas this is the appropriate category to play his teammate, Kirby, for the club I project to lead the AL and finish second in MLB in wins.
Imai's projected value is a quirk of the model that forecasts upside when there are no full-season playing-time projections for a player. Every projection system pegs the Japanese rookie for 26 starts, as Houston is expected to open the season with a six-man rotation.
As a result, it's difficult to place that wager. Even four to six weeks of a six-man rotation could cost him enough opportunities to win this category (averaged 24.6 starts, 165 IPs his last three full seasons in Japan) — winners have averaged 31.2 starts over the past five years. Pass on the rookie.
Lastly, I want to mention that I project next to no value in the pitcher milestone props compared to the bounty of strikeouts ladders below.
I modeled out the 14+, 16+, 18+, and 20+ wins milestone markets (against odds from DraftKings and bet365), and Valdez's 16+ wins prop was the lone wins milestone bet to return a positive edge. This market is tightly calibrated. As a result, I didn't specifically check the odds for lower-end milestones here (8+, 10+, 12+, wins), but I can provide projections if you have specific requests (or for subsequent categories).
If you're looking to narrow in on the wins category, Valdez and Webb are the best bets.
Pitcher Wins Bets
- Wins Leader: Zac Gallen (+6000, 0.05u), Parx
- Wins Leader: George Kirby (+5000, 0.1u), Caesars
- Wins Leader: Framber Valdez (+3000, 0.1u), Caesars
- Wins Leader: Logan Webb (+2000, 0.1u), Caesars
- Wins Milestone: Framber Valdez 16+ Wins (+600, 0.1u), DraftKings
Pitcher Strikeouts
Below are my projected pitching strikeout leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their simulated odds to lead the category (minimum 1% chance of winning) or to hit certain statistical milestones, and their listed outright and prop odds from the betting market.
Alternatively, you can use this link to view these oddsboards in Excel.
We cashed on Garrett Crochet (+1300) in this category last season and, similar to his wins bet, I wouldn't talk you off of building a Crochet portfolio (or crocheting a Crochet portfolio) between his wins leader and strikeout leader props for this season. Still, I do think both lines are properly valued within a margin of error, and don't see enough value to fire.
Moreover, as I'll discuss in my player awards piece, I think Crochet is actually overvalued in the AL Cy Young market (best odds +450).
The odds have also dropped substantially on Hunter Greene, who we bet last season at +3000. I wouldn't consider anything worse than +1000 on a pitcher with such a lengthy injury history.
As indicated with Bryan Woo, I would rather bet him for strikeouts than wins, both in terms of his milestone upside (230+) and as an outright. His second-half strikeout rate (31.4%) was on par with Crochet's season-long mark (31.3%), and his late-season pectoral strain appears behind him. If he carried that strikeout rate across the same workload last season, Woo would've finished at 229, despite missing a few starts.
Jesús Luzardo (30.2% second-half strikeout rate) also got better as the 2025 season went along, peaking with a 32.4% strikeout rate and 27.6% strikeout minus walk rate in September. Perhaps last year (career-best 183 2/3 IP, 216 strikeouts) was his career season, or maybe Luzardo can carry that second-half level forward.
Regardless, I'd cap Luzardo's upside around 245 strikeouts. Category leaders have averaged around 254 over the past five years.
Trey Yesavage is one of my favorite players from a milestone upside perspective this season.
The AL Rookie of the Year favorite tossed 139 2/3 combined innings (560 total batters faced) between the minors, majors, and his breakout postseason in 2025, and I could see him exceeding the upper end of current forecasts (projected range of 109 to 161 innings; 455 to 679 total batters faced) in 2026.
OOPSY and The BAT X, which incorporate Stuff data, project Yesavage with the highest strikeout rate (29% and 27.3%) in the market, but are also more conservative in their playing time estimates. Conversely, Steamer has Yesavage facing about 100 more batters (679) than he saw last season, and if that potential volume upside meets his talent upside, you're looking at around 195 strikeouts or more.
I think Yesavage can realistically approach 180 innings and 725 batters faced, which would put him closer to 210 strikeouts. His odds for 200+ are enormous, as is his outright prop at 100-1. But after throwing 140 combined innings last year, there's room for Yesavage to grow into a full workload as a rookie.
The same projections strongly disagree about the strikeout potential of his teammate, KBO signee Cody Ponce — OOPSY has him at a 23.2% strikeout rate, but the BAT X puts Ponce at 27.4%.
I prefer Logan Webb's 220+ and 230+ strikeout milestones to his outright odds, as they present more actionable prices and a more achievable target for a volume-oriented pitcher.
Webb did bump up his strikeout rate by more than 5% last season, but it regressed in the second half. Had he maintained his first-half strikeout rate (27.1%) for a full year, Webb would have finished with 232 Ks. Considering the allocation in wins (and potentially awards) for Webb, you can also choose whether to ladder down to 200+ and 210+ strikeouts, albeit at lesser edges.
Cole Ragans is another longshot upside dart throw, but unlike Webb, his chances purely come down to availability. Ragans missed significant time in 2025 with a rotator cuff strain, but when he pitched, he posted an elite 38.1% strikeout rate and 30.4% strikeout minus walk rate, including marks of 45.8% and 37.5% after returning in the second half.
You can combine multiple milestones for the same player together and build a ladder for pitchers like Logan Gilbert, Cristopher Sanchez, Kevin Gausman, and Framber Valdez while focusing on 2-star bets and up. Still, if there is a player that you particularly like (looking at you, Eury Perez fans), I wouldn't discourage you from wagering on anything with a star next to it — there are just a plethora of options.
To that point, if you're looking to narrow your card in the strikeout category, I would take Bryan Woo as category leader, focus on the Yesavage and Gilbert ladders, and also play Chase Burns to hit 190+ at a big number.
Burns projects for a strikeout rate north of 30% by both Stuff-driven systems, after posting a 37.7% strikeout rate in his rookie starts. At a 30% strikeout rate, Burns would need to throw roughly 145 innings to reach 190 K's. However, most forecasts are capping him at 133 frames, and there's a significant injury downside.
Pitcher Strikeout Bets
- K Leader: Jesús Luzardo (+6600, 0.05u), Fanatics
- K Leader: Bryan Woo (+5000, 0.05u), Caesars
- K Leader: Trey Yesavage (+10000, 0.01u), Caesars
- K Milestone: Trey Yesavage 180+ K (+185, 0.1u), bet365
- K Milestone: Trey Yesavage 190+ K (+400, 0.15u), bet365
- K Milestone: Trey Yesavage 200+ K (+900, 0.1u), bet365
- K Milestone: Logan Gilbert 200+ K (+310, 0.1u), DraftKings/bet365
- K Milestone: Logan Gilbert 210+ K (+450, 0.1u), DraftKings/bet365
- K Milestone: Logan Gilbert 220+ K (+800, 0.05u), DraftKings/bet365
- K Milestone: Chase Burns 190+ K (+1200, 0.1u), DraftKings
- K Milestone: Framber Valdez 200+ K (+550, 0.1u), DraftKings/bet365
- K Milestone: Kevin Gausman 200+ K (+500, 0.1u), DraftKings/bet365
- K Milestone: Kevin Gausman 210+ K (+900, 0.05u), DraftKings/bet365
- K Milestone: Cristopher Sánchez 210+ K (+330, 0.1u), DraftKings/bet365
- K Milestone: Cristopher Sánchez 220+ K (+550, 0.05u), DraftKings/bet365
- K Milestone: Cristopher Sánchez 230+ K (+1100, 0.05u), DraftKings/bet365
- K Milestone: Logan Webb 220+ K (+600, 0.05u), DraftKings/bet365
- K Milestone: Logan Webb 230+ K (+1300, 0.05u), DraftKings
- K Milestone: Sonny Gray 200+ K (+330, 0.1u), DraftKings/bet365
- K Milestone: Cole Ragans 240+ K (+1000, 0.05u), DraftKings/bet365
- K Milestone: Bryan Woo 230+ K (+750, 0.1u), DraftKings/bet365
Pitcher Saves
Below are my projected saves leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their simulated odds to lead the category (minimum 1% chance of winning) or to hit certain statistical milestones, and their listed outright and prop odds from the betting market.
Alternatively, you can use this link to view these oddsboards in Excel.
I'd urge caution with the 40+ save props, as just seven closers have cleared that benchmark in the past five seasons, compared to an average of eight closers with 30+ saves per year. The model is a touch too conservative in its forecast of relief pitcher role fluctuations, but the leader is still expected to need 43 saves.
Moreover, despite taking the Phillies' win total under, I still like the odds for Jhoan Duran to record his first 40-save season, after earning 16 in 19 chances over two months after joining his new club at the trade deadline. About 55% of wins end in a save chance (and 47% end with a save being recorded), and even if the Phillies finish around 88 wins, Duran could clear 40 if he's efficient — surpassing that threshold should put him in contention to lead the category.
My other preferred leader bets are Andrés Muñoz and Devin Williams, as I forecast both teams to win their respective divisions.
Muñoz's role is about as safe as Duran's. Williams will have a much shorter leash after coming over from the Bronx with former teammate Luke Weaver. Still, he was arguably the single unluckiest reliever in baseball last season (4.79 ERA, 3.05 xERA, 2.95 xFIP, 25.1% K-BB), and every projection has him north of 30 saves.
Apart from Emmanuel Clase (115), Carlos Estévez (99) has recorded the most saves in baseball over the past three seasons despite subpar indicators (2.95 ERA, 3.69 xERA, 4.56 xFIP). Moreover, his strikeout minus walk rate dropped both below the MLB average and to a career low (11.9%, 14.9% career) in 2025, and he's lost a tick of velocity in each of the past two seasons.
The model still likes Estévez, given the steady volume (projected between 31 and 32 saves in every public forecast), and I can envision the Royals winning around 85 games in the AL Central if everything goes well. Still, both Muñoz and Williams play for teams with significantly higher ceilings.
Raisel Iglesias (96) ranks third behind Estévez in saves over the past three years. While his peripherals have held steady strong in his mid-thirties, I'm admittedly spooked by the Braves' signing of Robert Suárez as the new setup man while installing a new manager in Walt Weiss. Oftentimes, a managerial change can lead to unexpected role changes.
The Braves have maintained that Igleislas will remain the closer, but I want to see how things shake out this spring.
I'm also concerned about Ryan Helsley's role security, who was tattooed while tipping pitches for parts of last season. I like his odds to clear 30+ saves, but there are too many potential vultures (Kittredge, Akin, Cano) in that Baltimore bullpen to cap his 40+ upside beyond what the model thinks.
If Daniel Palencia learns to handle lefties (career 3.28 xFIP against righties, 4.59 against lefties), he could be one of the best closers in the game. He'll also begin the season as the closer for a team expected to win around 90 games. More than half of the projections have Palencia at 30 saves, and I believe in the 40+ upside given the team and his raw talent.
Dennis Santana is a fun way to invest in the Pirates' success, but I'd prefer their playoff odds (or a specific non-Paul Skenes, non-Konnor Griffin awards bet) to his 40+ upside.
Muñoz and Williams are my preferred leader bets. Still, if you only place one bet in this category, take Kenley Jansen to record one final 30+ save season as he sits in fourth place all-time with 476 (Lee Smith is third, at 478).
Jansen's skills have fallen off from peak (2.60 xERA, 27.1% K-BB). However, he's still an average to slightly above-average reliever in his late thirties (3.73 xERA, 16.2% K-BB), and he's favored to open the season as the closer for a team that is a coin-flip to win their division (and whom I expect to win around 90 games when the dust settles).
Kenley won't get every save opportunity, while both Kyle Finnegan and Will Vest have experience in that role should Jansen falter. That said, I'd expect AJ Hinch to give the future Hall of Famer every opportunity to reach 24 (and 500 all-time), with upside beyond that on a potential 90+ win team.
Pitcher Saves Bets
- SV Leader: Jhoan Duran (+1700, 0.1u), DraftKings
- SV Leader: Devin Williams (+1600, 0.1u), BetMGM
- SV Leader: Andrés Muñoz (+1600, 0.1u), BetMGM
- SV Leader: Carlos Estévez (+2000, 0.05u), bet365
- SV Leader: Daniel Palencia (+2500, 0.05u), Caesars
- SV Milestone: Kenley Jansen 30+ SV (+310, 0.2u), DraftKings
- SV Milestone: Kenley Jansen 40+ SV (+1000, 0.05u), DraftKings
- SV Milestone: Jhoan Duran 40+ SV (+350, 0.1u), DraftKings
- SV Milestone: Ryan Helsley 30+ SV (+155, 0.1u), DraftKings
- SV Milestone: Carlos Estévez 40+ SV (+330, 0.1u), DraftKings
- SV Milestone: Daniel Palencia 40+ SV (+400, 0.1u), bet365
- SV Milestone: Dennis Santana 30+ SV (+195, 0.1u), DraftKings
| Click on a category to skip around |
| Pitcher Wins |
| Pitcher Strikeouts |
| Pitcher Saves |
| Batter Hits |
| Batter RBIs |
| Batter Stolen Bases |
| Batter Home Runs |
| All Wagers |
| Downloadable Model Edges |
MLB Futures Predictions: Batting Stat Leaders
Batter Hits
Below are my projected edges in the hits milestone market for the upcoming season, alongside their listed prop odds from the betting market.
Alternatively, you can use this link to view these oddsboards in Excel.
I have not included my projected hits leaders yet because I have not found a book willing to hang a market for this category.
I will update this section — and provide a new graphic with simulated outright odds and edges — once those become available, as we've had success betting this category, cashing Bobby Witt Jr. at +3000 in 2024 (he was projected to finish sixth in hits), and again at +800 as my projected favorite in 2025.
I projected Witt to finish first last season, but have him down at third for 2026, with Luis Arraez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Jacob Wilson, and Bo Bichette rounding out the top five.
Still, I don't project much value on the players near the top of the hits leaderboard.
You could utilize some of the chalkier two-starred props (e.g., Trea Turner 150+ and Julio Rodriguez 150+) as potential parlay pieces, but I'd prefer to scoop each of the plus-money props for small stakes.
I also don't project any edges in the 170+, 180+, etc. hits milestone markets, except for Xavier Edwards 180+ (projected +510, listed +610). But I also show a more significant edge on the 160+ prop for the Marlins' anticipated two-hole hitter (159 hits in 139 games last season, 98th percentile in whiff rate).
Roughly 50 hitters will surpass the 150-hit mark, and around 25 will surpass 160, with an expected total of 202 for the league leader.
The mini Jarren Duran and Nick Kurtz ladders are my favorite bets in this category.
Duran posted 159 hits in 157 games last season, following his breakout 2024 campaign (191 hits in 160 games). He's slated to bat third against righties (career 128 wRC+, 133 in 2025) and sixth against lefties, but could get platooned out against southpaw pitching (career 70 wRC+, 61 in 2025) — that's partly why projection systems are calling for 140 games played, and about 100 fewer plate appearances than he's accumulated each of the past two seasons.
The downside of reduced playing time is more than factored into his odds, but Duran could also move back atop the Red Sox lineup or remain an everyday player and surpass these thresholds on pure volume.
Kurtz is slated to be the Athletics' leadoff hitter in 2026 after spending the final six or so weeks of the 2025 season in that role. The more optimistic forecasts have Kurtz maintaining the roughly one-hit-per-game pace he posted as a rookie (122 in 117 games). But the projections are also underselling his potential volume gains over a full season as a leadoff hitter. He averaged 4.18 plate appearances per game as a rookie, but should push closer to the league leaders (4.3 to 4.5) in 2026.
Moreover, the Athletics' unique home environment in Sacramento (+17% runs, +7% hits, +7% walks, -3% strikeouts in 2025) provides a general offensive boost to an already talented group — you'll find Kurtz and some of his teammates as potential bets in sections below.
Lastly, I wanted to highlight Daylen Lile, one of 2025's most surprising rookies.
Lile makes excellent swing decisions and also excels with bat-to-ball skills, ranking in the 81st percentile for whiff rate and strikeout rate, while posting the highest launch-angle sweet-spot and expected batting average (.302) in the majors last season. He's also fast (92nd percentile sprint speed), which helps boost his BABIP.
Lile has the skillset of a future batting champion. He accumulated 96 hits in 91 games last year, and projections expect him to maintain a similar pace in 2026, but cap him at roughly 135 games played. The 23-year-old is slated to bat third for the Nationals against righties and fourth against lefties. He should play every day, but he could get moved down the platoon batting order if he doesn't improve against same-sided pitching (144 wRC+ against righties, 91 against lefties in 2025).
Hits Bets
- Hits Milestone: Jarren Duran 150+ Hits (+195, 0.15u), DraftKings
- Hits Milestone: Jarren Duran 160+ Hits (+350, 0.1u), DraftKings
- Hits Milestone: Nick Kurtz 150+ Hits (+290, 0.1u), DraftKings
- Hits Milestone: Nick Kurtz 160+ Hits (+550, 0.1u), DraftKings
- Hits Milestone: Daylen Lile 150+ Hits (+450, 0.1u), DraftKings
- Hits Milestone: Xavier Edwards 160+ Hits (+195, 0.1u), DraftKings
Batter RBIs
Here are my projected RBI leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their simulated odds to lead the category (minimum 2% chance of winning) or to hit certain statistical milestones, and their listed outright and prop odds from the betting market.
Alternatively, you can use this link to view these oddsboards in Excel.
By setting the outright threshold at 2% instead of 1%, we trimmed 11 names from this list, including Kyle Tucker, Matt Olson, Rafael Devers, and Bryce Harper. Still, I can assure you that all of their outright odds show a delta of -0.2% to -3.1% compared to their best available prices, and their milestone values are equally unappealing.
Note that I didn't project any value in the 100+, 110+, 120+ markets except for a negligible edge on Ohtani (e.g., Ohtani 120+ RBIs, projected +119, listed +125). As a result, I narrowed the milestone leaderboard to the 80+ and 90+ thresholds.
Roughly 25-30 players will surpass 90+ RBI, and upwards of 45-50 will surpass the 80+ mark. The league leader has averaged around 133.
We cashed a big ticket on Kyle Schwarber (+5000) last season, after noting his lineup spot change for the Phillies. I made his odds around 4.5% and +2100 last season, and have set them in a very similar spot (4.7%, +2029) for 2026. Anything better than +2500 should be an instant click.
I'd prefer that Schwarber remain out of the Phillies' leadoff spot, as the bottom of their lineup doesn't produce much offense.
I'm less concerned about run production opportunities for Shohei Ohtani and Nick Kurtz, even if both stick atop their respective batting orders.
Ohtani has both the highest average and overall RBI projections (138 from ZIPS) among hitters for this season — and frankly, he seemed to be hitting a different level in the second half of 2025 (165 wRC+ 1st half, 183 2nd half), which carried into his epic playoff run. Although he'll be back on the mound this season, Shohei could be sitting on his career year offensively. I think he'll threaten 60 homers (see below) and gather the spoils that come with it.
Kurtz is a rare second-year offensive player with legitimate MVP upside solely because of his bat. His second-half numbers were Aaron Judge-like (199 wRC+, 1.107 OPS), and the Athletics have the opportunity to post record-setting offensive numbers in their second summer at Sutter Health Park.
I wouldn't be shocked to eventually see a lineup spot bump for Kurtz in this category. His optimal RBI spot would be batting second, behind Jacob Wilson. Brent Rooker's outright edge is correlated to Kurtz's on-base prowess, but I'd rather take the player with the significantly higher ceiling (and there are better ways to bet Rooker).
Moreover, I show bigger edges in his teammates, Shea Langeliers and Tyler Soderstrom (hitting second and third respectively) to knock in Kurtz a ton in front of Rooker.
I don't mind stacking the Mariners either.
Randy Arozarena hit leadoff for Seattle through a large part of last season, but shifted down to fifth by the playoffs and will remain there for 2026 behind teammate Josh Naylor, with new on-base machine Brendan Donovan hitting atop Seattle's order.
At the same time, Naylor's 90+ RBI prop could be my favorite bet on this milestone board.
Among the other three-star bets, Pete Crow-Armstrong (72 wRC+, 63-RBI full-season pace) and James Wood (93 wRC+, 65-RBI pace) had second-half collapses featuring spikes in strikeout rates, whereas Mookie Betts (118 wRC+, 98 RBI-pace) righted himself after early-season health issues.
Jackson Chourio hits leadoff but should continue to improve in his age-22 season. He would have cleared 100+ runs and 90+ RBI out of a top-two batting order spot had he avoided an IL trip. He's developing into one of the game's best young players.
Conversely, while I'm personally very high on Zach Neto, I don't like the leadoff spot quite as much for his RBI chances, given the low on-base rates in the back half of the Angels' order. Compared to other potential plays, he's a two-star bet I'd leave on the cutting room floor.
I strongly prefer a team like the Marlins to the Angels, and expect Kyle Stowers to continue to develop into an elite power hitter, ranking among the league leaders in barrel rate and hard-hit rate in 2025 (while playing a key part in the All-Star Game swing-off). Stowers was pacing for roughly 34 homers and 100 RBI last season before an oblique injury took him out in the second half.
I expect him to form a dynamic duo in the Marlins' outfield with Jakob Marsee (see below).
My favorite bets in this category are the Ohtani and Schwarber outrights, Naylor 90+ RBI, and Stowers 90+ RBI.
Runs Batted In Bets
- RBI Leader: Shohei Ohtani (+1400, 0.15u), DraftKings
- RBI Leader: Kyle Schwarber (+3500, 0.1u), DraftKings
- RBI Leader: Nick Kurtz (+6600, 0.05u), Fanatics
- RBI Milestone: James Wood 90+ RBI (+280, 0.1u), bet365
- RBI Milestone: James Wood 80+ RBI (+110, 0.1u), bet365
- RBI Milestone: Tyler Soderstrom 90+ RBI (+280, 0.1u), bet365
- RBI Milestone: Jackson Chourio 90+ RBI (+190, 0.1u), DraftKings/bet365
- RBI Milestone: Josh Naylor 90+ RBI (+235, 0.2u), DraftKings
- RBI Milestone: Shea Langeliers 90+ RBI (+300, 0.1u), bet365
- RBI Milestone: Pete Crow-Armstrong 90+ RBI (+280, 0.1u), bet365
- RBI Milestone: Mookie Betts 90+ RBI (+230, 0.1u), DraftKings/bet365
- RBI Milestone: Kyle Stowers 90+ RBI (+250, 0.15u), DraftKings/bet365
- RBI Milestone: Randy Arozarena 80+ RBI (+155, 0.1u), bet365
- RBI Milestone: Randy Arozarena 90+ RBI (+300, 0.1u), bet365
Batter Stolen Bases
Below are my projected stolen base (SB) leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their simulated odds to lead the category (minimum 1% chance of winning) or to hit certain statistical milestones, and their listed outright and prop odds from the betting market.
Alternatively, you can use this link to view these oddsboards in Excel.
Since the new pickoff rule was implemented in 2023, we have seen an average of 21 players at 30+, five at 40+, and two players with 50+ steals over the past three seasons, with an average of 63 for the league leader.
We cashed Elly De La Cruz at +1000 to win this category in 2024, but I expressed a lack of confidence in the Reds' ability to continue running under a new manager (Terry Francona). Cincinnati was the most aggressive base-stealing team in 2023 (238 attempts), and attempts increased in 2024 (252), but the Reds ultimately finished 19th in Francona's first season at the helm with 135 attempts.
Elly should also hit for more power as he ages, which will reduce his chances of stealing second base.
Nobody ran more aggressively last season than the Tampa Bay Rays (242 attempts, 1.49 per game) — Milwaukee ranked second (217, 1.34 per game), while no other team cleared 200 attempts.
Chandler Simpson stole 44 bases on 56 attempts in just 109 games last season, a 65-steal (and 83 attempt) full-season pace. He should get the strong side of a platoon and remain a useful pinch runner off the bench when he doesn't start. I show his 40+ steal milestone as a safe floor bet, with reasonable upside to 50+ if he merely remains on the roster for the full season (33 games in Triple-A in 2025).
Simpson puts the ball in play (sub 10% strikeout rate, 98th percentile in chase rate and whiff rate), and he potentially has the quickest home-to-first time in baseball history (3.97 seconds, nobody else has posted a sub-four rate in the Statcast era).
I also project outright and milestone value for Victor Scott II, who grades faster than Simpson (and every player except Trea Turner) at a sustained sprint, although he's less adept at getting on base. Scott should play every day for the rebuilding Cardinals, and he showed improvements in both his strikeout (-10.8%) and walk rates (+2.3%) in the second half of 2025.
I think Scott is one of our roughly five 40+ finishers, but whether he finishes as the outright leader depends upon Simpson's playing time.
José Ramírez keeps getting better with age, posting consecutive 40+ steal seasons despite ranking in the 78th percentile in sprint speed. I'm uncertain that he can post a third consecutive 40-steal season — let alone lead the league — at age 33. The price I found is a bit off-market, but it's worth a poke if you can find it.
Otherwise, my favorite bets in this category are the outrights and milestones for Simpson and Scott, alongside the milestone props for Jakob Marsee, who posted 61 steals in 153 games between Triple-A and the majors last season.
Marsee isn't a burner (68th percentile in sprint speed), but he is an elite baserunner and an extremely well-rounded athlete, and he should have a high floor if he hangs onto the Marlins' leadoff spot. Marsee's steals ladder is among my favorite bets in this article, but don't take his outright price when you can get 50+ steals at the same number.
I scooped up the other plus-money two- and three-star plays, but surpassed a couple of potential three-star chalk prices on Jazz Chisholm Jr. and PCA — of those, I'd prefer the former, especially with Jazz in a contract year.
I mentioned earlier not to be shy to bet the one-star plays on your dudes.
Julio Rodriguez is one of my guys, and we still have not seen his best season yet. He's already gone 30-30 twice in four years, and if he ever manages to start fast and sustain (career 114 wRC+ first half, 154 second half) rather than struggle in April (career 90 wRC+) and recover, he'll become the seventh member of the 40-40 club (Juan Soto nearly joined in 2025).
Stolen Bases Bets
- SB Leader: José Ramírez (+2500, 0.025u), Parx
- SB Leader: Chandler Simpson (+500, 0.15u), Fanatics
- SB Leader: Victor Scott II (+2500, 0.1u), ScoreBet
- SB Milestone: Jakob Marsee 30+ SB (-125, 0.2u), DraftKings
- SB Milestone: Jakob Marsee 40+ SB (+300, 0.1u), DraftKings
- SB Milestone: Jakob Marsee 50+ SB (+1100, 0.1u), DraftKings
- SB Milestone: Chandler Simpson 40+ SB (-105, 0.1u), DraftKings
- SB Milestone: Chandler Simpson 50+ SB (+310, 0.1u), DraftKings
- SB Milestone: Victor Scott II 30+ SB (-150, 0.1u), bet365
- SB Milestone: Victor Scott II 40+ SB (+275, 0.1u), bet365
- SB Milestone: Pete Crow-Armstrong 40+ SB (+250, 0.1u), DraftKings
- SB Milestone: Bryson Stott 30+ SB (+325, 0.1u), bet365
- SB Milestone: Luke Keaschall 30+ SB (+380, 0.1u), DraftKings
- SB Milestone: Julio Rodríguez 30+ SB (+175, 0.1u), bet365
Batter Home Runs
Below are my projected home run leaders for the upcoming season, alongside their simulated odds to lead the category (minimum 1% chance of winning) or to hit certain statistical milestones, and their listed outright and prop odds from the betting market.
Alternatively, you can use this link to view these oddsboards in Excel.
Over the past five seasons, we've seen an average of 28 players at 30+, five at 40+, and 1.6 players with 50+ homers. The leader has finished with an average of 56.4.
I only project value in a few outright props.
Similar to the RBI leader, I project Shohei Ohtani to take one final step forward in 2026 and potentially claim the category (en route to a potential triple crown). But as you can see below in the over/under projections, I also think there are many scenarios in which he fails to clear 50.
Juan Soto is my favorite player to bet in this category.
We saw Soto really tap into his power in the second half with the Mets after a slow start. He posted 20 homers in 64 second-half games, a 50.6 full-season pace, and I expected him to reach 55 at some point over the next few seasons as he enters peak power ages (28-29). I had to leave it off for brevity, but in addition to his outright edge, I also show positive value on Soto Over 35.5 homers and on 50+ homers (projected +619, listed +700), and would take shares of each.
I'd consider new Pirates' DH Marcell Ozuna a quirk of the model — he hit 79 homers between the 2023 and 2024 seasons for the Braves but dealt with a hip injury last season, seeing his production (and batspeed) decline. Ozuna says he's healthy heading into 2026, but I'm skeptical, since he seemingly chose rest over surgery.
The home run milestone and over/under wagers fall into the same analysis bucket, but if the edges are relatively equal I'm happier to bet the milestones at plus money rather than laying juice on over/unders for what are seemingly eight-month coinflips (like betting a division or playoff bet for a team at plus money, rather than laying juice on their win total).
For example, I'd rather play Kyle Tucker's 30+ and 40+ homer props, or Fernando Tatis Jr.'s 30+ prop, at very similar projected edges to their Overs (at 27.5 and 26.5, respectively).
Brent Rooker Over 28.5 homers was my early player prop best bet in the Action Network App. There's still plenty of value on Rooker's Over even at 30.5. Every projection has Rooker hitting 30-36 homers this season, but the average projection is much closer to 35 than 30.
There's nearly as much value with Munetaka Murakami, either from an Over or a 30+ homers milestone standpoint. The Japanese rookie and single-season NPB home run king (56 in 2022) is projected to hit 27-30 homers in his rookie campaign, with upside for more with his 80-grade raw power.
The Under leaderboard is a bit sketchier.
Like you, my first desire wouldn't be to put money on the Unders for Aaron Judge, Nick Kurtz, Cal Raleigh, Pete Alonso, or Roman Anthony. The beauty of having so many options is that you don't have to follow every model recommendation.
I do feel like some of these season-long unders, specific to those red lollipop power metric guys, come down to whether the player, like Judge, gets hurt and spends enough time on the IL to kill their chances. Moreover, while I always enjoy betting against human achievement in a single game, sweating an Under-heavy portfolio over a full season can be a miserable experience.
That said, since fewer people are willing to bet season-long unders, those props generally tend to offer more value.
I'll deep-dive into individual power profiles beyond pure projections and scoop up some of these edges, rather than betting them blindly, and I do find the statcast-driven projections (from BAT X and OOPSY) are often directionally encouraging in driving my decision-making. For instance, those projections have Judge at 50 and 52 homers, respectively, compared to a range of 43-47 from other systems in similar playing time. Despite the three-star assessment, Judge probably needs to miss a month to cash that Under 49.5 ticket; you don't need to bet all of these.
Moreover, by fading Judge in the outright market, we have already implicitly bet his Under.
After parsing individual projections and statistical datapoints – including approach and power metrics – I selected one third of these totals. We're already heavily invested in player props, and I have more player (and manager) award bets coming later this week.
Bet responsibly and don't exceed my projected prices.
Home Run Bets
- HR Leader: Shohei Ohtani (+500, 0.2u), Fanatics
- HR Leader: Juan Soto (+2500, 0.1u), BetRivers
- HR Milestone: Munetaka Murakami 30+ HR (+140, 0.15u), bet365
- HR Milestone: Kyle Tucker 30+ HR (+125, 0.1u), bet365
- HR Milestone: Kyle Tucker 40+ HR (+550, 0.05u), bet365
- HR Milestone: Fernando Tatis Jr. 30+ HR (+145, 0.1u), bet365
- HR Milestone: Austin Riley 40+ HR (+550, 0.1u), bet365/DraftKings
- HR Milestone: Juan Soto 50+ HR (+700, 0.1u), DraftKings
- HR Milestone: Julio Rodríguez 30+ HR (+125, 0.1u), bet365
- HR O/U Over: Munetaka Murakami o26.5 HR (-110, 0.15u), bet365
- HR O/U Over: Brent Rooker o28.5 HR (-120, 0.25u), BetRivers
- HR O/U Over: Juan Soto o35.5 HR (-115, 0.1u), Parx
- HR O/U Over: Oneil Cruz o20.5 HR (-115, 0.1u), BetRivers
- HR O/U Over: Elly De La Cruz o23.5 HR (-105, 0.1u), FanDuel
- HR O/U Under: Alex Bregman u22.5 HR (-115, 0.1u), BetRivers
- HR O/U Under: Cody Bellinger u23.5 HR (-115, 0.1u), FanDue
- HR O/U Under: Jose Ramirez u28.5 HR (-112, 0.1u), BetRiver
- HR O/U Under: Colson Montgomery u24.5 HR (-120, 0.1u), BetMGM
- HR O/U Under: Ketel Marte u28.5 HR (-110, 0.1u), BetMGM
- HR O/U Under: Eugenio Suárez u33.5 HR (-110, 0.1u), BetMGM
| Click on a category to skip around |
| Pitcher Wins |
| Pitcher Strikeouts |
| Pitcher Saves |
| Batter Hits |
| Batter RBIs |
| Batter Stolen Bases |
| Batter Home Runs |
| All Wagers |
| Downloadable Model Edges |
Zerillo's MLB Player Stat Futures
Hits Bets
- Hits Milestone: Jarren Duran 150+ Hits (+195, 0.15u), DraftKings
- Hits Milestone: Jarren Duran 160+ Hits (+350, 0.1u), DraftKings
- Hits Milestone: Nick Kurtz 150+ Hits (+290, 0.1u), DraftKings
- Hits Milestone: Nick Kurtz 160+ Hits (+550, 0.1u), DraftKings
- Hits Milestone: Daylen Lile 150+ Hits (+450, 0.1u), DraftKings
- Hits Milestone: Xavier Edwards 160+ Hits (+195, 0.1u), DraftKings
Home Run Bets
- HR Leader: Shohei Ohtani (+500, 0.2u), Fanatics
- HR Leader: Juan Soto (+2500, 0.1u), BetRivers
- HR Milestone: Munetaka Murakami 30+ HR (+140, 0.15u), bet365
- HR Milestone: Kyle Tucker 30+ HR (+125, 0.1u), bet365
- HR Milestone: Kyle Tucker 40+ HR (+550, 0.05u), bet365
- HR Milestone: Fernando Tatis Jr. 30+ HR (+145, 0.1u), bet365
- HR Milestone: Austin Riley 40+ HR (+550, 0.1u), bet365/DraftKings
- HR Milestone: Juan Soto 50+ HR (+700, 0.1u), DraftKings
- HR Milestone: Julio Rodríguez 30+ HR (+125, 0.1u), bet365
- HR O/U Over: Munetaka Murakami o26.5 HR (-110, 0.15u), bet365
- HR O/U Over: Brent Rooker o28.5 HR (-120, 0.25u), BetRivers
- HR O/U Over: Juan Soto o35.5 HR (-115, 0.1u), Parx
- HR O/U Over: Oneil Cruz o20.5 HR (-115, 0.1u), BetRivers
- HR O/U Over: Elly De La Cruz o23.5 HR (-105, 0.1u), FanDuel
- HR O/U Under: Alex Bregman u22.5 HR (-115, 0.1u), BetRivers
- HR O/U Under: Cody Bellinger u23.5 HR (-115, 0.1u), FanDue
- HR O/U Under: Jose Ramirez u28.5 HR (-112, 0.1u), BetRiver
- HR O/U Under: Colson Montgomery u24.5 HR (-120, 0.1u), BetMGM
- HR O/U Under: Ketel Marte u28.5 HR (-110, 0.1u), BetMGM
- HR O/U Under: Eugenio Suárez u33.5 HR (-110, 0.1u), BetMGM
Runs Batted In Bets
- RBI Leader: Shohei Ohtani (+1400, 0.15u), DraftKings
- RBI Leader: Kyle Schwarber (+3500, 0.1u), DraftKings
- RBI Leader: Nick Kurtz (+6600, 0.05u), Fanatics
- RBI Milestone: James Wood 90+ RBI (+280, 0.1u), bet365
- RBI Milestone: James Wood 80+ RBI (+110, 0.1u), bet365
- RBI Milestone: Tyler Soderstrom 90+ RBI (+280, 0.1u), bet365
- RBI Milestone: Jackson Chourio 90+ RBI (+190, 0.1u), DraftKings/bet365
- RBI Milestone: Josh Naylor 90+ RBI (+235, 0.2u), DraftKings
- RBI Milestone: Shea Langeliers 90+ RBI (+300, 0.1u), bet365
- RBI Milestone: Pete Crow-Armstrong 90+ RBI (+280, 0.1u), bet365
- RBI Milestone: Mookie Betts 90+ RBI (+230, 0.1u), DraftKings/bet365
- RBI Milestone: Kyle Stowers 90+ RBI (+250, 0.15u), DraftKings/bet365
- RBI Milestone: Randy Arozarena 80+ RBI (+155, 0.1u), bet365
- RBI Milestone: Randy Arozarena 90+ RBI (+300, 0.1u), bet365
Stolen Base Bets
- SB Leader: José Ramírez (+2500, 0.025u), Parx
- SB Leader: Chandler Simpson (+500, 0.15u), Fanatics
- SB Leader: Victor Scott II (+2500, 0.1u), ScoreBet
- SB Milestone: Jakob Marsee 30+ SB (-125, 0.2u), DraftKings
- SB Milestone: Jakob Marsee 40+ SB (+300, 0.1u), DraftKings
- SB Milestone: Jakob Marsee 50+ SB (+1100, 0.1u), DraftKings
- SB Milestone: Chandler Simpson 40+ SB (-105, 0.1u), DraftKings
- SB Milestone: Chandler Simpson 50+ SB (+310, 0.1u), DraftKings
- SB Milestone: Victor Scott II 30+ SB (-150, 0.1u), bet365
- SB Milestone: Victor Scott II 40+ SB (+275, 0.1u), bet365
- SB Milestone: Pete Crow-Armstrong 40+ SB (+250, 0.1u), DraftKings
- SB Milestone: Bryson Stott 30+ SB (+325, 0.1u), bet365
- SB Milestone: Luke Keaschall 30+ SB (+380, 0.1u), DraftKings
- SB Milestone: Julio Rodríguez 30+ SB (+175, 0.1u), bet365
Pitcher Saves Bets
- SV Leader: Jhoan Duran (+1700, 0.1u), DraftKings
- SV Leader: Devin Williams (+1600, 0.1u), BetMGM
- SV Leader: Andrés Muñoz (+1600, 0.1u), BetMGM
- SV Leader: Carlos Estévez (+2000, 0.05u), bet365
- SV Leader: Daniel Palencia (+2500, 0.05u), Caesars
- SV Milestone: Kenley Jansen 30+ SV (+310, 0.2u), DraftKings
- SV Milestone: Kenley Jansen 40+ SV (+1000, 0.05u), DraftKings
- SV Milestone: Jhoan Duran 40+ SV (+350, 0.1u), DraftKings
- SV Milestone: Ryan Helsley 30+ SV (+155, 0.1u), DraftKings
- SV Milestone: Carlos Estévez 40+ SV (+330, 0.1u), DraftKings
- SV Milestone: Daniel Palencia 40+ SV (+400, 0.1u), bet365
- SV Milestone: Dennis Santana 30+ SV (+195, 0.1u), DraftKings
Pitcher Strikeout Bets
- K Leader: Jesús Luzardo (+6600, 0.05u), Fanatics
- K Leader: Bryan Woo (+5000, 0.05u), Caesars
- K Leader: Trey Yesavage (+10000, 0.01u), Caesars
- K Milestone: Trey Yesavage 180+ K (+185, 0.1u), bet365
- K Milestone: Trey Yesavage 190+ K (+400, 0.15u), bet365
- K Milestone: Trey Yesavage 200+ K (+900, 0.1u), bet365
- K Milestone: Logan Gilbert 200+ K (+310, 0.1u), DraftKings/bet365
- K Milestone: Logan Gilbert 210+ K (+450, 0.1u), DraftKings/bet365
- K Milestone: Logan Gilbert 220+ K (+800, 0.05u), DraftKings/bet365
- K Milestone: Chase Burns 190+ K (+1200, 0.1u), DraftKings
- K Milestone: Framber Valdez 200+ K (+550, 0.1u), DraftKings/bet365
- K Milestone: Kevin Gausman 200+ K (+500, 0.1u), DraftKings/bet365
- K Milestone: Kevin Gausman 210+ K (+900, 0.05u), DraftKings/bet365
- K Milestone: Cristopher Sánchez 210+ K (+330, 0.1u), DraftKings/bet365
- K Milestone: Cristopher Sánchez 220+ K (+550, 0.05u), DraftKings/bet365
- K Milestone: Cristopher Sánchez 230+ K (+1100, 0.05u), DraftKings/bet365
- K Milestone: Logan Webb 220+ K (+600, 0.05u), DraftKings/bet365
- K Milestone: Logan Webb 230+ K (+1300, 0.05u), DraftKings
- K Milestone: Sonny Gray 200+ K (+330, 0.1u), DraftKings/bet365
- K Milestone: Cole Ragans 240+ K (+1000, 0.05u), DraftKings/bet365
- K Milestone: Bryan Woo 230+ K (+750, 0.1u), DraftKings/bet365
Pitcher Wins Bets
- Wins Leader: Zac Gallen (+6000, 0.05u), Parx
- Wins Leader: George Kirby (+5000, 0.1u), Caesars
- Wins Leader: Framber Valdez (+3000, 0.1u), Caesars
- Wins Leader: Logan Webb (+2000, 0.1u), Caesars
- Wins Milestone: Framber Valdez 16+ Wins (+600, 0.1u), DraftKings
Check out and/or download all of my model edges below:
