Marlon Vera vs. Charles Jourdain Odds
| Vera Odds | +180 |
| Jourdain Odds | -218 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-245/+185) |
| Location | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California |
| Bout Time | 8:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 331 odds as of Friday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 331 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Marlon Vera vs. Charles Jourdain prediction for UFC 331 on Saturday, September 19, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Marlon “Chito” Vera has gotten his hand raised just once since 2022, dropping five of his last six fights inside the octagon. His strength of schedule throughout his UFC tenure is second-to-none and he will once again be facing an uphill battle in his quest to get his career back on track when he steps inside the cage with the always game Charles Jourdain.
Let’s dive into the analysis to determine just how good of a scrap these two veterans will be involved in on Saturday night.
Here's my Vera vs. Jourdain pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Vera | Jourdain | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 23-12-1 | 18-8-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:36 | 11:31 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 135 lbs. | 135 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 69" |
| Stance | Switch | Switch |
| Date of birth | 12/02/1992 | 11/27/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.18 | 5.36 |
| SS Accuracy | 47% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.34 | 4.11 |
| SS Defense | 50% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.47 | 0.38 |
| TD Acc | 39% | 21% |
| TD Def | 71% | 46% |
| Submission Avg | 0.8 | 0.6 |
It has become mandatory at this point to mention two key factors when breaking down a Chito Vera bout: his durability is legendary, and he is a notoriously slow starter in his fights. In Vera’s 15 UFC fights that have gone to a decision, he has only won the first round twice.
In his most recent appearance against David Martinez, Vera landed just 18 significant strikes within the first two rounds before turning up the heat and winning the 3rd round in a 29-28 decision loss across all three judges’ scorecards.
Charles Jourdain has shown the ability to adapt to his opponent’s style, and we know he can oblige Vera in what could be a very entertaining clash if the output of both men begins to increase a little earlier than what is expected – a responsibility Vera must take upon himself if he is serious about winning a decision.
Jourdain is going to set the pace of this fight, and it feels like a foregone conclusion he will take the first round. His movement skills and willingness to attack the body may put him ahead in the early going but I can’t help but wonder if he actually holds the advantage warranting a price tag north of -200 here when comparing these two men skill for skill.
Despite the momentum being on his side, Jourdain isn’t going to be able to lock up his patented guillotine as he has in previous wins. Vera carries too much experience and has never been submitted in his MMA career.
Jourdain’s explosive striking ability is not to be taken lightly, but Vera’s incredible durability is not going to suddenly fall off at 34 years of age. Vera has weathered the storm against fighters at or above the caliber of Jourdain on many occasions. Vera may drop the first round, but he is still highly dangerous with his counter shots and is the more likely fighter to land the knockout shot if Jourdain overextends himself.
Stylistically, there is one concerning bout on Jourdain’s resume that could be an applicable comparison to what we might see in his matchup with Vera. Jourdain’s lateral movement, leg kicks, and persistent work to the body was on display in his 2024 matchup with Sean Woodson, but it still wasn’t enough to get the win in what was a very competitive fight.
Woodson is a taller and longer fighter than Vera, but despite the speed disadvantage, he found a way to out-strike Jourdain by 40 significant strikes to the head.
Vera vs. Jourdain Pick, Prediction
Jourdain has been a reliable bet to best his opponent when he has a clear-cut advantage in skill and finishing ability, but I don’t believe he necessarily will have the upper-hand in either of those areas in this matchup.
Backing Vera to win on the moneyline feels irresponsible considering there is no way to predict if he is determined to fight from the opening bell, or if he will simply be taking mental notes on his opponent’s rhythm through the first 5 to 7 minutes.
Thus, the best angle to play in this particular matchup is the point spread. Even in his previous three losses, there was only just one 30-27 scorecard. Vera +3.5 points captures his win condition by finish and supports his ability to turn the fight in his favor over the second-half of the bout.
Instead of guessing whether his approach will change or when it will change, let’s simply invest in him winning one round, likely the third frame, with any other unforeseen advantage translating to a favorable outcome with this position.
John's Pick: Marlon Vera +3.5 -160 (DraftKings)
