Bayern Munich (3-0) and Paris Saint-Germain (3-0) will face off today at 3:00 p.m. EST at Parc des Princes in Paris.
PSG is favored at a +142 price, with the over/under set at 3.5 (-110o / -112u) goals.
Let's get into my Bayern vs. PSG prediction.
Bayern vs. PSG Prediction
Pick: PSG Moneyline
My Bayern vs. PSG best bet is for PSG to win the match.
Bayern vs. PSG Odds
| Bayern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -175 | 3.5 -110o / -112u | +162 |
| PSG Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +125 | 3.5 -110o / -112u | +142 |
Bayern vs. PSG Picks, Parlay
Leg 1: PSG to Win
Leg 2: Harry Kane to Score
PSG Moneyline
As the odds suggest, this is a challenging game to call. PSG and Bayern sit 1st and 2nd in the league phase heading into this game, and their performances have been superb. However, Luis Enrique’s team has shown it can outwork any opponent, and that, coupled with home advantage, should prove to be key. As a result, we are backing Les Parisiens to win as part of our PSG vs Bayern predictions.
PSG recorded an emphatic 7-2 win over Leverkusen in the last round. The German side struggled to wrestle control of the game despite being the hosts. Enrique’s team enjoyed 71% possession and created a wealth of opportunities. Les Parisiens are unlikely to be as dominant against Bayern, but the ability to press relentlessly should serve them well.
The away win over Barcelona was arguably PSG’s most impressive of the league phase to date. Ousmane Dembele and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia missed the clash, but the French side still managed to win the game and the xG (expected goals) battle. Hansi Flick’s side has been one of the most impressive teams in Europe since the start of last season, so PSG’s win without so many crucial players was impressive.
It’s difficult to pick holes in Bayern’s performances. The team has a perfect record across all competitions this season and has arguably the most deadly attack in Europe. However, Vincent Kompany’s high-risk approach leaves space behind the Bavarian defense for PSG to exploit. The home side has plenty of pace in its front three, and it could be a decisive factor here.
PSG also beat Bayern 2-0 when the teams met at the Club World Cup. Enrique’s team was able to double its lead despite having two red cards. The French side will feel it has the edge here.
Harry Kane to Score
With 12 goals domestically, Harry Kane sits behind only Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland in the top five European leagues. Furthermore, Kane and Mbappe are also the top goal scorers in Europe, with both netting five goals across three games.
While Bayern has many other offensive options who can score, it’s Kane’s experience that will be the X factor in a game of this calibre. Kane will be the main target of all crosses, and his ability to find space will be key against a compact and strong team like PSG.
As a direct result of the difficulty of this matchup, the odds are proportionally higher. Harry Kane is often priced low to find the net, and despite being the first favorite in this market, the price of 2.10/+110 makes it a value bet.
Looking at the underlying metrics, Kane has been more clinical in Europe than domestically. With an average of 1.52 xG per 90 in the Champions League, the Englishman is outperforming his 0.86 xG per 90 from the Bundesliga, albeit from a smaller sample size. When facing more formidable challenges, you can expect Kane to step up and take the spotlight.
Bayern vs. PSG Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Bayern | Draw | PSG |
|---|---|---|
| 29.4% | 20.2% | 50.4% |
Projected Total Goals
| Bayern | Total Goals | PSG |
|---|---|---|
| 1.63 | 3.78 | 2.16 |
Bayern vs. PSG Betting Analysis
This is a real heavyweight clash. Both teams will fancy their chances of making the top eight regardless of the result here, but this is a chance for them to prove a point in the early stages of the Champions League.
The quality of these teams suggests we should see a tight contest, and the PSG vs Bayern odds certainly agree, with the bookmakers having a hard time splitting them.
PSG took Europe by storm last season. The energetic pressing acted as a platform for its success, and that has continued. Les Parisiens allow just 8.93 passes per defensive action (PPDA) in Ligue 1, so expect them to put significant pressure on Bayern as it attempts to play out from the back here.
Bayern is also aggressive with its defensive approach, with the second-lowest PPDA in the Bundesliga. Neither of these teams is keen to sit back and allow the opponent to pass the ball around, so there should be a fiery battle for possession.
The Bavarians also have the cutting edge to hurt PSG. Harry Kane is in inspired form, having scored 22 goals in 15 appearances this season. The striker played just 30 minutes at the weekend, so tired legs won’t be an issue.
Since the start of last season, PSG has scored 51 Champions League goals, whereas Bayern has netted 43. Only Barcelona has scored more during that period, so this promises to be a feast of attacking football, with match-winners in both starting lineups.
