After what was ultimately a pair of lackluster title fights last weekend, the UFC roadshow continues on to Sacramento, featuring a middleweight main event between California-native Anthony Hernandez and Gregory Rogrigues.
As of Monday, we've got 13 fights from the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, with the event starting at 5:00 p.m. ET.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Serbia odds as of Monday and via DraftKings except where otherwise noted. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Sacramento Predictions & Luck Ratings
Anthony Hernandez (-166) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (+140)
While I often complain about the UFC's stubborn insistence on middleweight main events, we've got a good one this weekend in Sacramento. Anthony "Fluffy" Hernandez had an eight-fight winning streak snapped by now-champion Sean Strickland, while Gregory "Robocop" Rodriguez has won seven of his last eight, with three performance bonuses in his last four fights.
Both men are elite grapplers, with Hernandez known for putting an absurd pace on his opponents, making up for what he lacks in skill with cardio and enthusiasm. Rodrigues is a former Brazilian national BJJ champion who also competed in freestyle wrestling at the international level — but prefers to use his grappling defensively and throw bombs with his opponents.
My early read is that this fight is very binary in a time sense, with Rodrigues likely to defend early takedowns and have the edge standing, but Hernandez taking over the longer the fight goes. Rodrigues has been to the championship rounds just once in the UFC, suffering a fourth-round knockout loss after nearly finishing his opponent in Round 1. Hernandez has been in two five-round UFC fights, picking up finishes in the fourth and fifth round.
From a pure moneyline perspective, I'd make Rodrigues slightly undervalued here, but I prefer playing some combination of Rodrigues early and Hernandez late or live, which will have to wait until more props become available, so I'm calling this "fairly valued" for now.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Carli Judice (-500) vs. Jeisla Chaves (+380)
UFC Sacramento features a bout between two surging female flyweights, both of whom have so far fought a reasonably low level of opposition.
Judice is 3-1 in the UFC (and also lost on the Contender Series), with both losses coming via split decision and three consecutive wins. Chaves is 1-0 plus a win on the Contender Series, with both victories coming via split scorecards.
Typically this is a spot where I'd be on the fighter (Judice) with worse "split decision luck." However, that's more than baked into the market given her -500 moneyline odds. I actually like Chaves here, given that this fight is likely to go to a decision with over 2.5 rounds at -154 odds on Monday. Both women are high-volume brawlers, and absent a knockdown or stoppage that can be fairly hard to judge, plus Chaves probably has the grappling upside here, which could swing close rounds her way.
Also, there's always the hope of some bad judging bailing out what should be a losing pick, which is a worthwhile angle at a price this big. It's a small sprinkle for me, but I'll take Chaves at her best price of +390 via Caesars.
Verdict: Chaves Undervalued
Nasrat Haqparast (-118) vs. Chris Padilla (-102)
In the time it took me to write the two previous entries, Chris "Taco" Padilla's moneyline has flipped from slight plus money to -102, which lines up with the 74% of Tapology predictions coming his way. Taco remains undefeated in the UFC after fighting to a split draw against fellow UFC Sacramento competitor Marquel Mederos in his last fight, a bout that 100% of media members should've been adjudicated for Padilla.
On the other side, Haqparast comes in off a knockout loss to Quillan Salkilld, and while there's no shame in that, his previous two wins both came via split decision. This is a pretty classic case of one fighter having much worse luck than the other so far, with all signs pointing to Padilla being undervalued.
Given the early movement on Monday morning, it would be prudent to act quickly, with DraftKings still a bit behind the market at -102 odds.
Verdict: Padilla Undervalued
