Inter and Paris Saint-Germain will face off today at 3:00 p.m. EDT at the Allianz Arena in Munich, Germany. Neither team was among the favorites at the beginning of the season, but they earned their place in this decisive match through merit and determination.
PSG is favored at a +115 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-100o / -125u) goals.
Let's get into my Inter vs. PSG prediction.
Inter vs. PSG Odds, Prediction
| Inter Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -150 | 2.5 100o / -125u | +235 |
| PSG Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +110 | 2.5 100o / -125u | +115 |
Inter vs. PSG Spread: Inter +0.5 (-150), PSG -0.5 (+110)
Inter vs. PSG Over/Under: 2.5 (+100o / -125u)
Inter vs. PSG Moneyline: Inter +235, Draw +235, PSG +115
Inter vs. PSG Best Bets: Dembele 1+ Shot on Target, L. Martinez 1+ Shot on Target and Under 2.5 Goals
Inter Prediction
The Italian side has three Champions League titles (1964, 1965, 2010) and three additional final appearances in which they came up short. Fans and coach Simone Inzaghi still remember the heartbreak of losing the final to Manchester City two years ago — and are now back for redemption.
More vivid in the memory, however, is the historic semifinal against Barcelona, which ended 7-6 on aggregate, with a last-minute goal from Francesco Acerbi sending the tie to extra time. Another hero of that night at San Siro was Yann Sommer, who has the highest save percentage (82.8%) of any goalkeeper with at least eight Champions League matches this season. He also leads the competition with seven clean sheets.
Inter’s main attacking threat is Lautaro Martinez, who has scored nine goals in 13 appearances. Another Argentine, Diego Milito, was Inter’s top scorer the last time they lifted the Champions League trophy, including scoring both goals in the final.
There were concerns about Martinez’s fitness as he didn’t play in Inter’s final Serie A match, where they finished second behind Napoli, but he looked sharp in training this week. So did Benjamin Pavard, Yann Bissec, and Piotr Zieliński, all of whom have recovered in time.
PSG Prediction
The Parisian side is aiming to win the first Champions League title in club history and avenge their 2020 final loss to Bayern Munich. They’ll also be looking to break a longstanding curse as PSG has won only one of the four continental finals they’ve reached (the 1995/96 Cup Winners’ Cup against Rapid Wien).
Ironically, success may come in their first season without Kylian Mbappe, the club’s biggest star in recent years, who now plays for Real Madrid. Ousmane Dembéle didn’t flinch when asked to fill that void and lead the attack — just as Khvicha Kvaratskhelia stepped up in a starring role, despite arriving just over four months ago.
Manager Luis Enrique deserves major credit for getting this star-studded, financially powerful team to click. PSG already secured the Ligue 1 and Coupe de France titles this season, and in the Champions League they knocked out giants like Liverpool and Arsenal.
PSG averaged 2.38 goals per game in the Champions League knockout stages — only Barcelona, Arsenal and Aston Villa have a better rate, but all have fewer matches played. They’ve also averaged 18.6 shots per game in the tournament, second only to Bayern Munich.
Inter vs. PSG Picks
This will be the first official match between the two clubs. PSG enters as the favorite thanks to their consistent Champions League campaign and a strong recent record against Italian teams, winning four of the last five encounters (1 loss).
But Inter has proven an ability to thrive as underdogs. They pulled off a surprise win away at Bayern Munich in the quarterfinals and eliminated Barcelona in the semis after a gritty draw in Spain.
With the moneyline so tight, the smart play is to look at player props and other game lines. Expect PSG to dominate possession, while Inter will likely sit deep and look to strike on the counter.
True to their Catenaccio heritage, the Italians boast a physical and highly disciplined defense, so the Parisians may need to test their luck from long range. That’s where Dembélé becomes a prime candidate to try shots from outside the box.
On the other side, Lautaro Martinez will look to bring speed and danger to Inter’s counterattacks. While PSG features a solid backline — Willian Pacho and Marquinhos rank first and second in ball recoveries this tournament — Lautaro has proven he’s up for any challenge.
Another factor to consider: the last six Champions League finals have all ended with fewer than three goals. That trend could very well continue, especially with the outstanding form of the goalkeepers: Yann Sommer for Inter and Gianluigi Donnarumma for PSG.
Inter vs. PSG Parlay:
- Ousmane Dembele 1+ Shot on Target (-425)
- Lautaro Martinez 1+ Shot on Target (-190)
- Under 2.5 Goals (-125)
Total Payout: +310 (DraftKings)
