Which Sportsbooks Have the Best NFL Teaser Prices?
Andy Lyons/Getty Images. Pictured: Vikings’ Adam Thielen.
You’ve probably heard about the success of Wong teaser pieces this NFL season. Certain teasers (through key numbers of 3 and 7) hit at a greater rate than what it costs to buy the points you’re getting, and they’ve been red-hot to start the year (Seahawks +8.5 against the Rams not withstanding).
But don’t go rushing to bet these teasers without understanding if you’re getting a fair price.
That’s because the price your sportsbook offers on two-team, 6-point teasers will impact whether or not the teaser is still mathematically advantageous. Ideally you want -110 on a two-team, 6-point teaser, but that’s not available in the United States from the 20 books we’ve looked at. And -130 on these teasers evaporates the edge immediately.
So which U.S. sportsbooks are giving the best prices on teasers? Let’s dive in.
Tests run at 20 sportsbooks in New Jersey. If you’ve seen different prices or been limited on certain teaser types, please let us know.
The Basic Math
You can read Stuckey’s full teaser guide for more info, but here’s how the basic math looks.
NFL underdogs between +1.5 and +2.5 teased six points have covered 75.3% of the time. Favorites between -7.5 and -8.5 have covered about 76% of the time. They cover at a high rate because many NFL games end in these margins, given how points are scored in football.
To break even on a two-team, 6-point teaser at -110, you only need to win 72.4% of the time. That’s an advantage, historically speaking, based on the cover rate I just detailed.
But to break even on a 6-point, two-team teaser at -130, you need to win 75.2% of the time. Based on those same cover rates, your entire advantage is gone at -130.
Road underdogs have been the best teaser pieces over the last decade.
— Benjamin Brown (@PFF_BenBrown) September 22, 2021
Different Types of Teaser Pricing
There are three primary ways a sportsbook offers NFL teasers:
- Fixed price: All two-team, 6-point teasers cost the same. Taking the Texans from +16 to +22 is the same price as taking the Jets from +2.5 to +8.5 (even though the Jets line is much more advantageous).
- Dynamic prices: The book will charge you different prices depending on how advantageous the teaser price is. You’ll get a much better price teasing the Texans from +16 to +22 than the Jets from +2.5 to +8.5.
- Choose your own spreads: Some books don’t offer traditional teasers, and instead make you parlay alternate point spreads (which is exactly what a teaser is). This style gives you a little more control over your pricing, but it’s rarely advantageous to go from +2 to +8 with choose your own spreads.
So Who Is Giving Fair Prices?
*Books that use dynamic pricing or alternate spread parlays, so listed price is based on teasing two teams from +2 to +8.
|Sportsbook||2 teams, 6 points||3 teams, 6 points|
And the winner is…
Unibet, Barstool, BetRivers, etc., who all use odds provider Kambi, came in second at around -117 on two teaser pieces going from +2 to +8. Their Wong teasers are priced anywhere from -117 to -123, depending on the exact numbers you’re teasing through.
These books have dynamic pricing, so you can actually get better prices on bad teasers, making them … less bad.
Books to avoid…
FanDuel should be avoided because of its fixed price at -134. DraftKings is available in all the same states, and has a fixed price of -120.
BetMGM and PointsBet should also be avoided in most cases, because you’re parlaying alternate spreads. And if you want to take a team from +1.5 to +7.5, those alternate spreads are going to be costly.