Five Kalshi markets are worth watching this week, from a buzzy movie sequel's review score to a presidential race that just flipped on its head. Before getting into it, don't forget to grab the Kalshi promo code, check our full Kalshi review to see how the platform works, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis as these markets keep moving through the week.
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5 Kalshi Prediction Markets this Week
Kalshi let traders buy and sell contracts tied to how a real-world event turns out: a movie's score, a game's winner, an election. Prices shift constantly as new information lands, and the price itself reflects what the market collectively expects: a prediction market contract trading well above the midpoint signals strong confidence in that outcome, one trading well below it signals the opposite. That makes these charts a fast, useful read on sentiment heading into any event.
The Social Reckoning's Rotten Tomatoes Score
Aaron Sorkin won an Oscar for writing The Social Network, and that 2010 film earned 8 Academy Award nominations including Best Picture on its way to $226 million worldwide. 16 years later, Sorkin returns with a companion piece, The Social Reckoning, out October 9. This time he's writing and directing solo: David Fincher, who shaped the original's look, doesn't return, and Jesse Eisenberg has been replaced by Jeremy Strong as an older Mark Zuckerberg. The story follows whistleblower Frances Haugen and Wall Street Journal reporter Jeff Horwitz roughly two decades after the first film's events.
Our take:
Kalshi's contract on the film's eventual Rotten Tomatoes score is currently leaning toward the high 60s. Given Sorkin's track record and a subject this timely, there's a real case for the number to climb once reviews start landing closer to release: scores like this tend to move fast once embargoes lift, so the window to get ahead of it is short.
49ers vs. Seahawks
San Francisco opened the season 3-0 with Brock Purdy drawing early MVP buzz, even as Nick Bosa deals with injury trouble and edge rusher Mykel Williams targets this game for his return from a torn ACL. Seattle enters as the defending Super Bowl champion after a 14-3 campaign, though the Seahawks have had their own early bumps with Sam Darnold missing time before settling back in.
The market currently gives Seattle a moderate edge at home, but this is a classic NFC West measuring-stick game, and the injury report will likely keep shifting right up to kickoff: worth more than one look this week.
Brazil's Presidential Runoff
Brazil's first-round vote wrapped up Sunday, and it didn't go the way most traditional pollsters called it. Heading into the vote, surveys from Quaest and BTG Pactual/Nexus had Flávio Bolsonaro and President Lula essentially tied in a potential runoff. Instead, Bolsonaro finished the first round with roughly 47% of the vote to Lula's 45%, and that surprise lead makes him the clear favorite heading into the October 25 runoff.
Kalshi's market on the overall presidency swung hard toward Bolsonaro once the count came in. With 3 weeks left before the runoff and a result that already caught most forecasters off guard once, there's an argument for staying active here instead of treating it as decided.
Midterms: Balance of Power
With about 4 weeks to go before November's midterms, Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority, meaning Democrats need to flip four seats on top of the House to take full control. Recent national polling has shown Democrats with a real edge on the generic ballot.
Kalshi's combo market, which covers every possible split of House and Senate control, now shows a full Democratic sweep as the clear favorite: a shift from a race that looked far tighter earlier in the cycle. With a month of debates, ads, and fresh polling still ahead, this is a market built for staying engaged, not setting and forgetting.
Yankees vs. Rays
Tampa Bay and New York enter the ALDS as two of the American League's best regular-season teams, with the Rays taking the season series by a single game, 7-6, and earning home-field advantage as a result. Game 2 at Tropicana Field lines up Rays right-hander Nick Martinez against Yankees breakout ace Cam Schlittler, with Aaron Judge reportedly working his way back into the lineup after missing time with injury.
Our take:
The market has this one essentially split down the middle, with New York holding the smallest of edges. In a series this even, one game changes the entire complexion of the week: which makes Game 2 worth trading on its own.
