A movie release, a presidential vote, an NFL game and a reality-TV finale land within days of each other, with a key Senate race in the midterms. Kalshi has a market for each. Here are 5 prediction markets worth a look this week, with what is moving each price. Don't forget to read our Kalshi review, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Kalshi Prediction Markets
Kalshi is an exchange where people trade contracts tied to real-world events. Each contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and nothing if it doesn't. The price, in cents, reflects the market's view of the chances, so 60 cents points to roughly a 60% probability. Prices move as news arrives, and you can sell before an event resolves.
Digger Rotten Tomatoes Score
Alejandro G. Iñárritu's Digger opens Oct. 2, with Tom Cruise as an oil tycoon whose drilling triggers a global disaster. Early reactions split sharply. IndieWire called it "a brave and gorgeous art film that will not score with mainstream audiences." The full review embargo lifts Tuesday at noon ET, so the Tomatometer takes shape fast.
Kalshi's forecast fell after those first reactions and now sits a few points under 60%. The "Above 60" contract settles Monday, Oct. 5, and needs a score of 61 or higher.
Our take:
A mixed reaction doesn't have to mean a rotten score. Iñárritu directed Birdman, a Best Picture winner, and The Revenant, and some early reactions praise Cruise's work. We see the score landing between 60% and 64%, which makes "Above 60" a lean, not a lock. Tuesday's reviews could move the price either way.
Brazil Presidential Election Winner
Brazil votes Sunday, Oct. 4. If nobody wins more than half of the valid votes, the top two meet in a runoff on Oct. 25, and polling points that way. The front-runners are President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, Jair Bolsonaro's son.
The market and the polls don't fully agree. Kalshi has swung toward Bolsonaro, yet Datafolha's latest survey had Lula two points ahead in a simulated runoff, inside the margin of error, and Quaest had Bolsonaro one point up. Either the market sees something the polls miss or the polls lag behind it, and Sunday's first-round vote should show which. The contract runs through the Oct. 25 runoff, so Sunday will move the price without likely closing it.
Packers vs. Buccaneers
Green Bay (1-2) visits Tampa Bay (0-3) on Sunday. Baker Mayfield left the Buccaneers' loss to Minnesota, and reports say he is expected to miss time, which would put undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels under center. Green Bay is banged up too, with Micah Parsons still sidelined and right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele out for the season.
The Packers are the favorites in Kalshi's market, which has drawn the most volume of any Week 4 game so far. The game also has spread and total markets, so a trade isn't only about who wins.
Our take:
Green Bay. A first-time starter facing a team that can't afford another loss is a favorable setup. Mayfield's official status is the number to watch, since the price can move once it is confirmed.
Ohio Senate Winner
Ohio's special election on Nov. 3 fills the last two years of JD Vance's Senate term. RepublicanJon Husted, appointed to the seat, faces Democrat Sherrod Brown, who lost it in 2024 by about 3.5 points in a state Donald Trump carried by 11. Republicans hold 53 seats and Democrats need a net gain of four for control.
Kalshi currently favors Brown after a long stretch with Husted in front. Polls are less clear-cut: a Fox News survey in August had Brown up by 8, Rasmussen and Trafalgar found narrower leads, and one polling average shows a near tie. With more than a month to go, each new poll can shift the price, and traders don't have to hold until Election Day.
Big Brother 28 Winner
The Big Brother28 finale airs Thursday, Oct. 1, at 8 p.m. ET. Three houseguests remain: Rick Devens, Drew Campbell and Taylor Brown. Live-feed reports say Devens won Part 2 of the final Head of Household competition and will face Brown, who won Part 1, in Part 3 on finale night. Kalshi's market has Devens in front, with Campbell second.
Our take:
Devens. He is one competition away from choosing his final-two partner, and the market has already moved his way.
Three of these markets resolve within days, so prices can move quickly. Check each contract before you trade.
