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Rockstar Games' newest addition to the Grand Theft Auto franchise is on the verge of release after what has felt — to many fans — like an endless wait. In fact, the wait has been so long that fans are only now taking the release date seriously.
Grand Theft Auto VI is set to release on November 19 and will succeed GTA V — which released back in 2013 — as Rockstar Games' flagship title. In prediction markets, like Kalshi's Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date, traders have recently begun to trust that the game will release before December, as the volume of trades has climbed over $5.3 million.
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September Predictions: Tentative Optimism
As weeks have passed without significant issues concerning GTA VI or its release, traders have grown increasingly confident in the November 19 target. On Kalshi, 94% of people predict the game will drop before December 2026, identical to the number of users who expect the game to release before 2027 at the latest.
Polymarket users are still trading a touch more cautiously than those on Kalshi. Only 89% of users predict that the scheduled release will hold, and only 91% of traders expect GTA VI to drop by December 31.
August Predictions: Measured Pessimism
The confidence engendered by a quiet September is striking when compared with the turmoil of August. As of August 2026, traders on Polymarket were unconvinced that GTA VI would release by November 19, which was already the second postponement of the GTA VI launch. On August 1, 95% of traders on Polymarket believed Rockstar's newest addition would rollout on time. However, amidst gameplay leaks, rumors of technical issues, and fears of delays, that number dropped to 77% by August 24.
There was serious doubt whether GTA VI would release by the conclusion of 2026. While the game was officially announced in December of 2023, the past three years have offered anything but assurance to fans. After initially scheduling a Fall 2025 launch, Rockstar pushed the title release back to May 2026 before landing on November 2026 last summer.
In late August, fans were unsure how extensive additional delays could be. On August 24, only 88% of traders on Polymarket (and 86% on Kalshi) expected GTA VI to launch before 2027.
