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Best Director Oscar Predictions, Odds: The Daniels Favored Over Steven Spielberg

Best Director Oscar Predictions, Odds: The Daniels Favored Over Steven Spielberg article feature image

Kevin Winter/Getty Images. Pictured: Daniel Scheinert and Dan Kwan.

Best Director Nominees & Odds

Odds via FanDuel and as of March 12

Nominee Odds Implied Probability
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All At Once) -1800 94.74%
Steve Spielberg (The Fabelmans) +850 10.53%
Todd Field (Tar) +2900 3.33%
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) +3500 2.78%
Ruben Ostlund (Triangle of Sadness) +6500 1.52%

Collin Wilson: When it comes to Best Director, it takes a number of strong elements to veer away from the winner of this very category at the Directors Guild.

There may have been no stronger correlation in winners until Bong Joon-ho won for Parasite at the Academy Awards versus Directors Guild winner Sam Mendes for 1917. The defeat can be attributed to the growing number of voters who rely less on the specific guilds as a write-in candidate. The winner of Best Director at the recent 2022 Director’s Guild was Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, also known collectively as ‘The Daniels.’ 

Daniel Scheinert and Dan Kwan, known as The Daniels, won the theatrical film directing prize at #DGAawards. See the full winners list:

— Variety (@Variety) February 19, 2023

Everything Everywhere All At Once casts a large shadow over these awards, but the numbers in most categories are oversold. Per Gold Derby, the Daniels pulled in just less than 75% of the top vote for Best Director. An eye-popping 25% of the votes went in favor of Stephen Spielberg for The Fabelmans.

As discussed on The Action Network Podcast – Oscars Edition, The Fabelmans did not deliver for all the hype associated with a Spielberg movie. 

Despite an underperforming movie, Spielberg has value in the market with the rush on Everything Everywhere All At Once. With 25% of the vote from editors and experts, Spielberg should be lined closer to +300, with the Daniels less than -400.

In the case there is crazy Yorgos Lanthimos steam on Sunday, look for the correct price in the market with the boundaries mentioned above. 

Chris Raybon: Gold Derby gives Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert’s Everything Everywhere All At Once (-1200) a 93% chance to win, but there’s nothing to do with a -1200 except parlay.

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