Michigan State vs. Northwestern Odds & Prediction: Over/Under Keeps Falling

Michigan State at Northwestern Odds & Prediction

• Odds: Michigan State -8
• Over/Under: 36.5
• Time: 12 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC

All odds above as of Saturday at 8 a.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Is there anything more exciting than a noon Big Ten game with a total in the 30's? No? OK.

Northwestern is more than a touchdown underdog at home to Michigan State after the Spartans coughed up last week's games against Arizona State.

Below you can find our projected odds and total from Collin Wilson, plus keys to the game and one useful trend. You can get Collin's pick on this game for free in The Action Network app.

Wilson's Model Prediction for Michigan State vs. Northwestern

Collin Wilson uses an oddsmaker-style approach to creating his own power ratings that can set a point spread between any two teams on a neutral field. 

Action EDGE members can get his projections for every Week 4 game here, and his full power ratings for all 130 teams are here.

• Spread: Michigan State -6.9
• Over/Under: 50.3

One Useful Trend

In college football games with an over/under of 40 or less, the underdog has covered 59.2% of the time (116-80-9 ATS).

One Key for Michigan State

Find some offensive rhythm to finish drives.

Michigan State has scored a touchdown on just 50% of its red zone entries this season, and while the offense has looked better after an opening week slog against Tulsa, there are still issues.

One Key for Northwestern

Can the Wildcats actually move the ball on this vaunted Spartans defense?

So far this season, Michigan State has allowed 70 rushing yards on 78 attempts, tied for the best yards per carry mark in the country.

Northwestern couldn't get anything going on offense against Stanford, averaging just 3.5 yards per play. Things were better against UNLV, but that's not saying much.

Michigan State vs. Northwestern Sharp Action

Sharps bettors hammered the Michigan State vs. Northwestern line early in the week. You can get access to the full sharp report as an Action EDGE member.

Michigan State vs. Northwestern Pick

Collin Wilson isn't interested in a side on this game, but is instead playing the total. You can get his Michigan State vs. Northwestern pick, and everything else he's betting on Saturday, for free in The Action Network app.

Odds & Line Shopping for Other Key College Football Games

Michigan State at Northwestern (+9, 37)
Michigan at Wisconsin (-3, 44.5)
California at Ole Miss (-2.5, 41.5)
Tennessee at Florida (-14, 48.5)
Southern Mississippi at Alabama (-38, 61.5)
LSU at Vanderbilt (+24, 62.5)
Miami (Ohio) at Ohio State (-38.5, 56)
UCF at Pittsburgh (+10.5, 61)
Washington at BYU (+6.5, 51)
Auburn at Texas A&M (-4, 47.5)
Notre Dame at Georgia (-14.5, 57.5)
SMU at TCU (-8, 55)
Central Michigan at Miami (Fla.) (-29.5, 48.5)
Kentucky at Mississippi State (-6, 47.5)
South Carolina at Missouri (-9, 61)
Oregon at Stanford (+10.5, 57.5)
Charlotte at Clemson (-41.5, 61.5)
Oklahoma State at Texas (-7, 72.5)
Nebraska at Illinois (+13.5, 62)
Colorado at Arizona State (-8.5, 48.5)
UCLA at Washington State (-18.5, 58)