Perry’s WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational Betting Guide: The Favorite Worth a Look
Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Justin Thomas
- Joshua Perry details his betting card for the 2019 WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational.
- There's one favorite with value, plus a couple of mid-tier guys and one longshot worth a look.
There’s no time for golf’s stars.
Fresh off the final major of the season, they’re all back in action (for the most part) at the WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational.
This event replaced the Bridgestone Invitational on the schedule. Firestone was one of Tiger Wood’s favorite courses, so he’s decided to pass this week along with Rickie Fowler and Francesco Molinari. But we’ve got basically everyone else as the PGA Tour season heads down the home stretch.
TPC Southwind in Memphis has been a regular on the tour for a long time. It hosted the St. Jude Classic every year since 1989.
The course checks in at a little more than 7,200 yards for a par 70. It has as much water in play as any on tour, so staying dry will be the most important thing for every player this week. It’s not too long, so hang the ability to keep it in play off the tee and dialing in the irons.
We’ve got a limited field of 64 players in this no-cut event. Dustin Johnson is at the top of the board in the +900 range. He’s won here twice, so it’s likely he’ll be a popular play even though the form has been off by his lofty standards.
Brooks Koepka and Rory McIlroy are right behind in the +1000 range while Jon Rahm is right there with them at +1200.
I’ll pass on the top big names, but will be dipping into the favorites range for a rare bet with Justin Thomas at +1800.
Tee to green, Thomas has been in great shape for a couple months now. The putter has held him back, but everything else is trending toward a win. This is basically the number we’d see on him at a PGA Championship or U.S. Open, but this field isn’t nearly as deep.
With all the water lurking on this course, I’m going to target a pair of players who are among the best at keeping the ball in play.
We’ll start with Webb Simpson at +4000. Simpson’s last win came at The Players, another tournament in which dodging the water is critical. Simpson hasn’t played Southwind a ton, but does own a third-place here in 2014. He’s basically a lock to gain strokes with the approach. It’s been four month since he’s lost ground with the irons in an event.
Matt Kuchar is the other play in this range at +4450.
Kuch was having another solid week at The Open before the weather took its toll on him Sunday. I’ll wipe that from my mind and I think he can too. Like Webb, the irons have been on point for awhile. He’s only lost strokes once since January. I also think getting back on Bermuda greens will help as the Georgia native is usually a better putter on that surface.
WGC events tend to have 40 or so of the game’s super elite players, then the rest of the field is cobbled together by qualifiers from other tours. So when it comes to big underdogs, there’s not much to choose from.
I’ll back an old favorite of mine in this spot though. As mentioned, we’re back on Bermuda, so I’ll back Keith Mitchell here at +20000.
Mitchell’s irons haven’t been in the best spot, but he has the ability to compete with the best when everything is firing on all cylinders.
He was able to close out a tournament on a difficult course at PGA National this year with Brooks Koepka and Rickie Fowler trying to track him down. Mitchell has played well on a tough course with a putting surface he’s comfortable, while two of the top guys were on his tail. Maybe he can do it again.
WGC FedEx St. Jude Invitational Betting Card
- Justin Thomas +1800 (1.83 units)
- Webb Simpson +4000 (.825 units)
- Matt Kuchar +4450 (.725 units)
- Keith Mitchell +20000 (.165 units)
Total Stake: 3.545 units