2020 Corales Puntacana Betting Preview: Which Stats Matter Most This Week at Corales?

2020 Corales Puntacana Betting Preview: Which Stats Matter Most This Week at Corales? article feature image
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Jamie Squire/Getty Images. Pictured: Corey Conners.

Following an exciting U.S. Open, we officially enter a dull few weeks until we reach the CJ Cup and ZOZO Championship. While we won’t have the star-studded fields we have gotten accustomed to seeing recently, there is still plenty of value to be had when betting these “swing season” tournaments.

The third edition of the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship will start on Thursday, Sept. 24 and will take place at Corales Golf Club. The course was built in 2010 and is a par 72, measuring 7,666 yards with Paspalum greens. The course has relatively wide open fairways, and the coastal wind is the course’s main defense.

Past Winners at Corales Golf Club

  • 2019: Graeme McDowell (-18) 
  • 2018: Brice Garnett (-18)

Let’s take a look at several key metrics for Corales to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.


GolfBet

 


Strokes Gained: Approach

SG: Approach tells us how close a golfer is getting to the hole on his approach to the green. This is often a strong indicator of which golfers are in the best form heading into any given tournament. Corales Golf Club is a second shot golf course. With very wide fairways and the ball tending to travel farther in the Dominican Republic heat, the majority of players will have no trouble off of the tee.

Total strokes gained in category in past 24 rounds:

  1. Henrik Norlander (+18.0) (+4500)
  2. Henrik Stenson  (+16.9) (+3300)
  3. Chris Baker (+14.9) (+6600)
  4. Branden Grace (+13.5) (+4000)
  5. Cameron Percy (+12.6) (+7000)

 


Strokes Gained: Total (Paspalum greens)

In the past, players have noted that Paspalum greens have a very different feel than they’re are used to. On this putting surface, the putt needs to be hit more firmly and there is less break than there may appear to be. I am weighing this relatively heavily because Paspalum is very common on resort courses and on the coast and many of the same players tend to play well in these situations. Some comparable tournaments with Paspalum greens are El Camaleon, TPC Kuala Lumpur and Kiawah Island. Looking at the leaderboards from many of those events, many of the same players are standing out.

  1. Pat Perez  (+55.1)(+2500)
  2. Anirban Lahiri (+44.4)(+9000)
  3. Brice Garnett (+44.3)(+6600)
  4. Aaron Baddeley (+38.0)(+15000)
  5. George McNeil (+34.6)(+50000)

SG: Tee to Green (in moderate wind conditions)

With many of the holes at Corales being right on the coastline, wind may play a factor this week. Last year’s champion, Graeme McDowell, is an excellent wind and coastal player and I don’t think that is a coincidence.

Total strokes gained in category in past 24 rounds:

  1. Henrik Stenson (+31.1)(+2500)
  2. Jamie Lovemark (+31.0)(+17500)
  3. Charley Hoffman (+23.8)(+3300)
  4. Kevin Chappell (+23.2)(+9000)
  5. Corey Conners (+19.5)(+1400)

Birdie or Better Gained

With fairways being easy to hit and the rough not playing much of a factor, it will be important to target golfers who are able to take advantage of easier setups and make birdies in bunches.

Total strokes gained in category in past 24 rounds:

  1. Grayson Murray (+20.6)(+15000)
  2. Denny McCarthy (+12.7)(+2800)
  3. Will Gordon (+10.9)(+6600)
  4. Jhonattan Vegas (+10.4)(+4500)
  5. Mackenzie Hughes (+8.2)(+2000)

Strokes Gained: Par 5

With four par 5s on the course that all should be reachable by most of the field, par 5 scoring will be crucial. With some relatively low scores in play, the golfer that takes advantage of the scoring holes can separate themselves from the field.

Total strokes gained in category in past 24 rounds:

  1. Grayson Murray (+14.9)(+15000)
  2. Corey Conners (+10.8)(+1400)
  3. Sam Burns (+10.0)(+1800)
  4. Matthias Schwab (+9.8)(+4000)
  5. Adam Schenk (+9.4)(+3300)

Statistical Model

Below, I’ve reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: APP (24.1%), SG: TOT Paspalum: (24.2%), SG: T2G Moderate wind (19.1%), BOB Gained (16.4%), SG: Par 5 (16.1%).

  1. Chris Baker (+6600)
  2. Henrik Stenson (+3300)
  3. Brice Garnett (+6600)
  4. Emiliano Grillo (+2800)
  5. Pat Perez (+2500)
  6. Sepp Straka (+3300)
  7. Charley Hoffman (+3300)
  8. Corey Conners (+1400)
  9. Adam Long (+2000)
  10. James Hahm (+6600)

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