2021 Houston Open Betting Odds & Picks: How to Back Patrick Reed & Marc Leishman

2021 Houston Open Betting Odds & Picks: How to Back Patrick Reed & Marc Leishman article feature image

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Reed.

  • The PGA TOUR is back this week in the United States at the Houston Open.
  • Multiple former major winners are in the field, including Patrick Reed.
  • Chris Murphy sees value in Reed and two other players, laying out his picks below.

Viktor Hovland captured the win in Bermuda over the weekend, becoming the first player to successfully defend a title since Brooks Koepka went back to back at PGA Championships in 2019. The Norwegian was truly dominant once again, never really letting anyone within shouting distance of his lead down the stretch Sunday as he captured his third TOUR victory.

This week, golfers head back stateside for the Houston Open, which will have an intriguing field of its own that's headlined by Koepka. You will hear throughout the week that he was involved in the redesign at Memorial Park Golf Course two years ago, resulting in its current 7,412-yard, Par 70 layout. This will be the second edition of the event at this track, as Carlos Ortiz held off Dustin Johnson in the final tune-up before the 2020 November Masters.

Ortiz captured his first win on TOUR by being sharp throughout his bag during the week. He stood out as the fifth-best player in the field in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, but also rolled it well ranking in that same position in Strokes Gained Putting.

An additional aspect that stood out both in stats and player comments was the importance of play around the greens at Memorial Park, as a missed green almost always left a tough up and down. It seems the short game is a much bigger factor than play off the tee this week, though we have to be careful buying in too heavily with just a one-year sample.

Now, let's get a winner.

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2021 Houston Open Full Odds

Click here to see the full odds board as of Monday
Sam Burns+1200
Scottie Scheffler+1800
Cameron Smith+1800
Sung-Jae Im+2000
Talor Gooch+2200
Matthew Wolff+2500
Tyrrell Hatton+2500
Tony Finau+2500
Brooks Koepka+2800
Adam Scott+2800
Aaron Wise+3000
Joaquin Niemann+3000
Carlos Ortiz+3500
Marc Leishman+4000
Shane Lowry+4000
Patrick Reed+4500
Maverick McNealy+4500
Seamus Power+4500
Christiaan Bezuidenhout+4500
Russell Henley+4500
Mackenzie Hughes+5000
Jason Kokrak+5000
Cameron Tringale+5000
Harold Varner III+5000
Max Homa+6000
Lanto Griffin+6000
Erik Van Rooyen+6000
Ian Poulter+6500
Charley Hoffman+6500
Branden Grace+7500
Mito Pereira+8000
Jhonattan Vegas+8000
Taylor Moore+8000
Gary Woodland+9000
Chad Ramey+10000
Cameron Davis+10000
Jason Day+10000
Sebastian Munoz+10000
Greyson Sigg+10000
Taylor Pendrith+11000
Cheng-Tsung Pan+11000
Kevin Streelman+11000
Lee Westwood+11000
Adam Schenk+13000
Danny Willett+13000
Chez Reavie+13000
Emiliano Grillo+13000
Brian Harman+13000
Ryan Palmer+13000
Joel Dahmen+13000
Stewart Cink+13000
Matthias Schwab+13000
Harry Higgs+13000
Sepp Straka+15000
Luke List+15000
Martin Laird+15000
Pat Perez+15000
Adam Long+15000
Aaron Rai+15000
Henrik Norlander+15000
Scott Piercy+15000
James Hahn+15000
Stephan Jaeger+15000
Sahith Theegala+15000
Keith Mitchell+15000
Russell Knox+15000
Tom Hoge+15000
Henrik Stenson+15000
Denny McCarthy+18000
Hudson Swafford+18000
J.J. Spaun+18000
Nate Lashley+18000
Brandt Snedeker+18000
Scott Stallings+18000
Francesco Molinari+18000
Roger Sloan+18000
Brian Stuard+18000
Andrew Landry+20000
Robert Streb+20000
Wyndham Clark+20000
Dylan Frittelli+20000
Nick Taylor+20000
Peter Uihlein+25000
David Lipsky+25000
Anirban Lahiri+25000
J.T. Poston+25000
Jason Dufner+25000
Davis Riley+25000
Kyle Stanley+25000
Doc Redman+25000
Brandon Hagy+25000
Sunghoon Kang+25000
Hank Lebioda+25000
Andrew Putnam+25000
Matthew NeSmith+25000
Dawie Van Der Walt+25000
Brice Garnett+25000
Lee Hodges+25000
Vincent Whaley+25000
Tyler Duncan+25000
Sam Ryder+25000
Adam Svensson+25000
Kevin Tway+30000
Zach Johnson+30000
Bill Haas+30000
Graeme McDowell+30000
Jimmy Walker+30000
Nick Watney+30000
Chesson Hadley+30000
Bronson Burgoon+30000
Joseph Bramlett+30000
Peter Malnati+30000
MJ Daffue+30000
Kramer Hickok+30000
Trey Mullinax+30000
Jim Herman+35000
Noh Seung-yul+40000
Tyler McCumber+40000
Richy Werenski+40000
Brian Gay+40000
Chris Stroud+50000
Chase Koepka+50000
Paul Barjon+50000
Gilbert Mendez+100000
Martin Trainer+100000
Shawn Stefani+100000
Kelly Kraft+100000

Patrick Reed +4000 (DraftKings)

Outside of a strong second-place finish at the Bermuda Championship a couple of weeks ago, it has been a rough start for Patrick Reed. He hasn't taken advantage of his starts in these weaker fall swing fields, as his ball striking was woeful to start the season. That's the bad news. The good news is he's starting to show signs of turning it around.

His high finish in Bermuda was due to a great Sunday, where he fired a 65 to close out a week of four rounds in the 60s. I thought that might carry over to Mayakoba, but an ugly opening-round 73 put the breaks on that thought. Reed was able to bounce back Friday with another 65. I lay this all out because often at this level, volatility is a sign of an elite player starting to put it all together.

Reed is a player who will often have struggles right before a win, and I think he could be headed toward that this week in Houston. He has the game to fit with his elite short game and bermudagrass preference, just needing the ball striking to show a bit more consistency for him to push to the top.

We get a nice discount on the former Masters Champion due to his struggles, and at +4000 he's got a lot of things aligning for a potential big week.

Bet Patrick Reed at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.

Marc Leishman +4100 (FanDuel)

There are very specific courses where I like targeting Marc Leishman and it's usually on courses where I think he can get away with spraying it a bit off the tee (because he will). Memorial Park seems to be that type of track, as Ortiz hit just half of his fairways, while two other top-5 finishers barely eclipsed the 50 percent mark in the category.

Leishman will be able to get away with his squirrely driver and has shown signs of his elite iron play over the last few events. When I add in the fact he has the short game and an extreme preference for bermuda greens, he becomes an easy play alongside Reed at +4100 on FanDuel. I am pretty pumped to start my card with these two proven winners on TOUR at solid odds.

Bet Marc Leishman at FanDuel and get a $1,000 risk-free bet.

Branden Grace +9500 (FanDuel)

I was ready to write Grace up for a top-10 play, but then I came across his number on FanDuel and he became an easy longshot pick for me. Most other books have him listed 20 points or more shorter, so I'll grab the value here and take a chance he puts it all together.

The South African has shown flashes of elite play this year, which started with his emotional win in Puerto Rico in February. He followed that up with three Top 10s in four TOUR events over the summer, including a T7 at the US Open. Grace would match that seventh-place finish again a few weeks ago at the ZOZO Championship, allowing him to carry some good momentum into Texas, where he will play a similar Par 70 track with five Par 3s and three Par 5s.

He certainly can contend on a course like this that mitigates his weakness off the tee, and will play on his preferred Bermuda putting surface, making him a solid value at nearly triple-digit odds.

Bet Branden Grace at BetMGM and get a risk-free bet up to $1,000.

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