2021 PGA Championship Odds: Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm & Jordan Spieth the Favorites at Kiawah Island

2021 PGA Championship Odds: Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm & Jordan Spieth the Favorites at Kiawah Island article feature image
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Ben Jared/PGA TOUR via Getty Images. Pictured: Rory McIlroy

If someone had suggested to you a few weeks ago that Rory McIlroy would be the betting favorite for the 2021 PGA Championship, you would have likely called their betting acumen into question. But golf is a twisted game and now here we are, just days away from Round 1 of the second major of the season, and McIlroy finds himself atop the odds at DraftKings.

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The Favorites

It does seem a bit perplexing that McIlroy would vault right back to betting favorite considering that his win at the Wells Fargo was preceded by two straight missed cuts and an 18-month winless streak. Will one win be enough for bettors to be tempted to play the Northern Irishman at such short odds?

Of course there are good reasons for Rory to be the favorite at +1150 ($10 bet wins $110.50). Not only is he coming off a win at Quail Hollow two weeks ago, but he also won this event at this course by eight strokes, albeit back in 2012. Kiawah is a long course that plays favorably for those who can drive the ball well and, well, that sounds like Rory’s music.

Though Rory’s story arc this past year hasn’t been as dramatic, it does remind me a bit of Jordan Spieth‘s. After a few years in the wilderness Spieth found his game at the beginning of 2021 and quickly vaulted his way back up the oddsboard. Spieth, who was around the triple-digits not too long ago, is +1450 and a joint second-favorite for the PGA Championship along with everybody’s favorite pick for “the next guy to win a major,” Jon Rahm, and Justin Thomas.

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When the TOUR heads to long courses everybody immediately thinks Bryson DeChambeau (+1650). That makes logical sense. Bryson knows how to hit the ball very far. That said, DeChambeau is coming off a disappointing T55 at TPC Craig Ranch — another track that was supposed to suit his game — because the rest of his game let him down. Although his price is still short, I wouldn’t be surprised if bettors who like playing the top of the board land on Bryson because of the mini drift on his number at a bomber’s course.

Speaking of a drift, World No. 1 Dustin Johnson (+1850) has slipped a bit lately and now finds himself as the seventh-favorite in between Xander Schauffele (+1700) and Viktor Hovland (+2000). DJ has come back down to earth after his world-beating run of form to close out 2020, but he’s another player who should be set up well at a long, coastal course.

As for Hovland, he’s already drawing plenty of attention from bettors and has seen his number come down from near 30/1 to 20/1 since the odds posted.

Hovland isn’t the only one who seems to be taking early money, though. Daniel Berger was hanging around +4000 for the PGA last week, but another solid week for the Florida native forced oddsmakers to slash his number towards +3000.

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The Mid-Tier

Deep fields always make the mid-tier quite a fun range to shop in. It isn’t every week that you get to bet guys like Tony Finau (+4000), Patrick Cantlay (+4500), Brooks Koepka (+5000), Paul Casey (+5500) and Tyrrell Hatton (+5500) at big numbers.

Even though his health is in question, it is definitely worth a good think about Koepka this week. We know he can win PGA Championships. We know he can hit the ball a mile. And we know he doesn’t need to play his way into form to win (see this year’s Waste Management). I’d imagine if he wins a lot of speculators will be thinking “how did I not bet Brooks Koepka at 50/1?” You can apply similar logic to Finau and Cantlay, who are both at basically double their “normal” price for majors due to poor form.

Mother Nature is expected to play her part this week as there is some wind in the forecast and when that happens bettors love to build their betting cards to look like a Ryder or Presidents Cup team. You can expect Casey, Hatton, Matthew Fitzpatrick (+6000), Marc Leishman (+7000), Tommy Fleetwood (+7500) and Matt Wallace (+8500) to attract some attention in this range.

Another interesting name in this range is Joaquin Niemann at +8000. A few weeks ago Niemann was a chic sleeper pick to win the Masters at a shorter number. A few pedestrian weeks from the young Chilean and now he’s at 80/1.

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Pictured: Shane Lowry

Notable Longshots

There’s plenty of starpower in the triple-digits this week. Shane Lowry (+10000) has won a major and plays well when the trousers are flapping. Gary Woodland (+10000) has begun to round into form. Sergio Garcia (+11000) is on quite the cut-making streak in majors and can get hot at a moment’s notice. Brian Harman (+11000) was red hot not too long ago. So was Billy Horschel (+11000). Charl Schwartzel (+11000) is white hot right now. Adam Scott (+11000) is usually a trendy pick when he’s half these odds, so why not take a flier at 110/1?

What I’m trying to say is that you can make a compelling case for a lot of great players at long odds this week. Self-control, don’t fail us now.

2021 PGA Championship Odds

via DraftKings

Player Odds
Rory McIlroy +1150
Jon Rahm +1450
Justin Thomas +1450
Jordan Spieth +1450
Bryson DeChambeau +1650
Xander Schauffele +1700
Dustin Johnson +1850
Viktor Hovland +2000
Daniel Berger +3000
Collin Morikawa +3000
Hideki Matsuyama +3500
Patrick Reed +3500
Scottie Scheffler +3500
Tony Finau +4000
Patrick Cantlay +4500
Webb Simpson +4500
Cameron Smith +4650
Brooks Koepka +5000
Abraham Ancer +5500
Paul Casey +5500
Louis Oosthuizen +5500
Tyrrell Hatton +5500
Will Zalatoris +5500
Sam Burns +6000
Matt Fitzpatrick +6000
Keegan Bradley +7000
Corey Conners +7000
Marc Leishman +7000
Bubba Watson +7000
Tommy Fleetwood +7500
Joaquin Niemann +8000
Matt Wallace +8500
Harris English +9000
Shane Lowry +10000
Alexander Noren +10000
Justin Rose +10000
Gary Woodland +10000
Jason Day +11000
Sergio Garcia +11000
Emiliano Grillo +11000
Brian Harman +11000
Billy Horschel +11000
Charl Schwartzel +11000
Adam Scott +11000
Cameron Tringale +11000
Lee Westwood +11000
Stewart Cink +12500
Ryan Palmer +12500
Jason Kokrak +13000
Si Woo Kim +13000
Garrick Higgo +14000
Charley Hoffman +14000
Francesco Molinari +14000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +17500
Rickie Fowler +17500
Lanto Griffin +17500
Max Homa +17500
Matt Jones +17500
Matt Kuchar +17500
Robert MacIntyre +17500
Kevin Na +17500
Carlos Ortiz +17500
Thomas Pieters +17500
Kevin Streelman +17500
Bernd Wiesberger +17500
Talor Gooch +20000
Chris Kirk +20000
Brendon Todd +20000
Aaron Wise +20000
Cameron Champ +22500
Branden Grace +22500
Russell Henley +22500
Zach Johnson +22500
Kyoung-hoon Lee +22500
J.T. Poston +22500
Ian Poulter +22500
Steve Stricker +22500
Cameron Davis +25000
Maverick McNealy +25000
Sebastian Munoz +25000
Harold Varner III +25000
Thomas Detry +30000
Adam Hadwin +30000
Kevin Kisner +30000
Denny McCarthy +30000
Phil Mickelson +30000
Victor Perez +30000
Danny Willett +30000
Joel Dahmen +35000
Dean Burmester +40000
John Catlin +40000
Dylan Frittelli +40000
Martin Kaymer +40000
Martin Laird +40000
Antoine Rozner +40000
Brendan Steele +40000
Henrik Stenson +40000
Richy Werenski +40000
Byeong-hun An +60000
Chan Kim +60000
George Coetzee +60000
Jason Dufner +60000
Brian Gay +60000
Padraig Harrington +60000
Lucas Herbert +60000
Harry Higgs +60000
Tom Hoge +60000
Rasmus Hojgaard +60000
Sam Horsfield +60000
Rikuya Hoshino +60000
Mackenzie Hughes +60000
Jazz Janewattananond +60000
Takumi Kanaya +60000
Kurt Kitayama +60000
Tom Lewis +60000
Adam Long +60000
Peter Malnati +60000
Aaron Rai +60000
Chez Reavie +60000
Kalle Samooja +60000
Brandon Stone +60000
Robert Streb +60000
Andy Sullivan +60000
Jimmy Walker +60000
Erik van Rooyen +60000
John Daly +150000
Jim Herman +150000
Jason Scrivener +150000
Vijay Singh +150000
Hudson Swafford +150000
Sami Valimaki +150000
Daniel van Tonder +150000
Omar Uresti +200000
YE Yang +200000
Daniel Balin +250000
Peter Ballo +250000
Alex Beach +250000
Rich Beem +250000
Frank Bensel +250000
Tyler Collet +250000
Ben Cook +250000
Mark Geddes +250000
Derek Holmes +250000
Greg Koch +250000
Rob Labritz +250000
Brad Marek +250000
Shaun Micheel +250000
Tim Pearce +250000
Ben Polland +250000
Patrick Rada +250000
Sonny Skinner +250000
Stuart Smith +250000
Joe Summerhays +250000
Brett Walker +250000

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