2021 TOUR Championship Betting Picks & Predictions: Bet Scottie Scheffler in Lowest 72-Hole Market
Tracy Wilcox/PGA TOUR via Getty Images. Pictured: Scottie Scheffler.
- The 30 best players of the 2020-21 PGA TOUR marathon season assemble at East Lake Golf Club this week for the TOUR Championship.
- The betting market is different for this tournament, with books offering odds for the FedExCup winner and the outright low score over the 72-hole tournament.
- Joshua Perry breaks down why he thinks Scottie Scheffler has betting value this week.
The marathon that is the 2020-21 PGA TOUR season reaches its conclusion this week with the TOUR Championship at East Lake Golf Club.
There’s obviously a lot on the line with the winner taking home $15 million. But from a betting perspective, it’s hard to really get up for this one. A 30-player field with a handicapped start really isn’t the best thing to get wagers down on, but we’ll find one or two things of interest this week.
East Lake has played host to the TOUR Championship each year since 2004. It’s a par-70 that measures 7,346 yards and is a fairly challenging test for this elite field.
The approach game is usually what separates the top of the field here. Rory McIlroy and Tiger Woods each have two wins here. Henrik Stenson and Xander Schauffele have also notched victories, as well. Schauffele also gets credit at least in the world rankings for a win here last year for his low-72-hole performance.
We’ll usually get a score in the 10- to 12-under par range coming out on top, though Schauffele managed to get to 15-under in 2020.
There are a couple of ways to look at the odds this week, but either way, Jon Rahm is the favorite. Even with a four-shot deficit to overcome, Rahm opens at +350 to win the $15 million over Patrick Cantlay, who’s next in line at +400.
But my focus will be on the low-72-hole score this week, which will ignore the starting strokes. There, Rahm is still favored at +600 with Schauffele, McIlroy and Dustin Johnson coming in between +1100 and +1200.
Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth and Bryson DeChambeau make up the next group between +1400 and +1600. DeChambeau would be of the most interest to me given his form, but East Lake hasn’t always been kind to bombing away. The approach shots really do play a big factor, and he was just mediocre there last week.
Instead, I’ll be going to Scottie Scheffler as my one play this week.
Scheffler was fifth in Strokes Gained: Approach last week at the BMW Championship, and he was also second here to Schauffele last year. Scheffler enters the week at 1-under, so he’s a full nine shots behind Cantlay to start.
I expect Scheffler to be aggressive from the start on a course that he should be a good fit for. I think he’s worth a shot at +2500 on BetMGM.
The Tour Championship Card
- Scottie Scheffler low 72 holes +2500 (1.32 units)
Total Stake: 1.32 units