2021 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Betting Preview: Which Stats Matter at Austin Country Club?

2021 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Betting Preview: Which Stats Matter at Austin Country Club? article feature image
Credit:

Rob Carr/Getty Images. Pictured: Bryson DeChambeau.

We head to Austin Country Club this week for the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. It has been two years since the TOUR has had this event after last year’s cancellation due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This will be the fifth edition of this tournament hosted by Austin Country Club.

Austin Country Club is a Par 71 measuring 7,108 yards. It is a Pete Dye design and features Bermudagrass greens.

The field will consist of 64 of the world’s top players. The only notable exceptions are Brooks Koepka, Tiger Woods, Gary Woodland, Adam Scott and Justin Rose. The players will be put in 16 groups of four, where the winner of each pod will advance to the final 16.

Past Winners at Austin Country Club

  • 2019: Kevin Kisner (48 seed)
  • 2018: Bubba Watson  (35  seed)
  • 2017: Dustin Johnson (1 seed)
  • 2016: Jason Day (2 seed)

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5 Key Stats For Austin Country Club

Let’s take a look at five metrics key for Austin Country Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes gained: Approach is always a great place to start when creating a predictive model. Pete Dye designs have challenging green complexes, making it crucial to hit your spot when hitting approaches to the green, and the greens at Austin CC are smaller than TOUR average.

Total SG: Approach over past 24 Rounds

  1. Collin Morikawa (+31.4) (+1800)
  2. Justin Thomas (+26.0) (+1100)
  3. Corey Conners (+22.7) (+5000)
  4. Russell Henley (+22.1) (+6600)
  5. Will Zalatoris (+21.2) (+5000)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

In match play, driving distance can play a huge factor. Whoever has the furthest drive will have the luxury of seeing what their opponent did with their approach before deciding on which strategy to apply when making their approaches. The greens are firm at Austin Country Club, so playing from the rough or using a longer iron on approaches will cause some issues for golfers.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee over past 24 Rounds

  1. Bryson DeChambeau (+26.8) (+1200)
  2. Viktor Hovland (+19.3) (+2500) 
  3. Sungjae Im (+18.7) (+3300)
  4. Sergio Garcia (+17.0) (+4000)
  5. Corey Conners (+15.2) (+5000)

3. Strokes Gained: Pete Dye Designs

Pete Dye specialists seem to always bring their best game when playing on Pete Dye designs. Golfers’ comfort level on the unique layout of the course this week should play a factor this week.

SG: per round on Pete Dye designs over past 24 rounds:

  1. Bryson DeChambeau (+2.2) (+1200)
  2. Brian Harman (+2.0) (+8000)
  3. Dustin Johnson (+1.9) (+1600)
  4. Abraham Ancer  (+1.9) (+5000)
  5. Jason Day (+1.8) (+5000)

4. Birdie or Better gained

A unique aspect of match play is the fact that a terrible hole doesn’t take you out of the match. If your opponent makes birdie, it doesn’t matter if you make a par or a quadruple bogey, you simply lose the hole and move on to the next. Therefore, targeting golfers who make a lot of birdies and force their opponent to match will be a sound strategy this week.

Birdie or Better gained over the past 24 rounds

  1. Justin Thomas (+29.3) (+1200)
  2. Viktor Hovland (+25.8) (+2500)
  3. Tony Finau (+25.8) (+2500)
  4. Bryson DeChambeau (+25.0) (+1200)
  5. Patrick Cantlay (+23.2) (+2000)

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass)

Putting is especially important in Match play. Golfers will need to make plenty of pressure packed putts in the match play setting. Historically, great putters have won this event (Jason Day and Kevin Kisner) and flat stick prowess should prove to be a factor again. 

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) over past 24 rounds

  1. Brendon Todd (+24,6) (+10000)
  2. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+23.7) (+6600)
  3. Sungjae Im (+21.6) (+3300)
  4. Kevin Kisner (+20.8) (+6600)
  5. J.T. Poston (+20.4) (+15000)

2021 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (28%), SG: OTT (22%), BOB:Gained (20 %), SG: Pete Dye (15%) and SG: Putting (Bermudagrass) (15%).

  1. Bryson DeChambeau (+1200)
  2. Jon Rahm (+1400)
  3. Corey Conners (+5000)
  4. Xander Schauffele (+2500)
  5. Tony Finau (+2500)
  6. Patrick Cantlay (+2000)
  7. Daniel Berger (+3300)
  8. Collin Morikawa (+1800)
  9. Justin Thomas (+1200)
  10. Dustin Johnson (+1600)

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