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2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Matchup Pick: Chris Kirk Has Betting Value at Bay Hill

2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Matchup Pick: Chris Kirk Has Betting Value at Bay Hill article feature image
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Andy Lyons/Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Kirk.

Click arrow to expand 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational odds via BetMGM

2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds

Golfer Odds
Jon Rahm +800
Rory McIlroy +1200
Scottie Scheffler +1600
Viktor Hovland +1600
Hideki Matsuyama +2500
Matt Fitzpatrick +2500
Sungjae Im +2500
Will Zalatoris +2500
Tyrrell Hatton +3000
Adam Scott +3300
Marc Leishman +3300
Billy Horschel +4000
Jason Kokrak +4000
Keith Mitchell +4000
Paul Casey +4000
Max Homa +4000
Sam Burns +4000
Gary Woodland +5000
Sergio Garcia +5000
Tommy Fleetwood +5000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5000
Jason Day +5000
Justin Rose +5000
Maverick McNealy +5000
Russell Henley +5000
Cameron Tringale +6600
Chris Kirk +6600
Talor Gooch +6600
Cameron Young +6600
Corey Conners +6600
Erik van Rooyen +6600
Keegan Bradley +6600
Luke List +6600
Seamus Power +6600
Kevin Na +8000
Lanto Griffin +8000
Sepp Straka +8000
Tom Hoge +8000
Denny McCarthy +8000
Lee Westwood +8000
Sebastian Munoz +8000
Si Woo Kim +8000
Aaron Wise +10000
Charles Howell III +10000
Ian Poulter +10000
Kevin Kisner +10000
Lucas Glover +10000
Matthew Wolff +10000
Patrick Reed +10000
Taylor Moore +10000
Thomas Pieters +10000
Adam Svensson +12500
Andrew Putnam +12500
Brendon Todd +12500
Carlos Ortiz +12500
Chez Reavie +12500
Dylan Frittelli +12500
K.H. Lee +12500
Kevin Streelman +12500
Lee Hodges +12500
Martin Laird +12500
Matt Jones +12500
Nick Taylor +12500
Pat Perez +12500
Rickie Fowler +12500
Sahith Theegala +12500
Sam Ryder +12500
Taylor Pendrith +12500
Troy Merritt +12500
Aaron Rai +15000
Beau Hossler +15000
Danny Willett +15000
Garrick Higgo +15000
Lucas Herbert +15000
Nicolai Hojgaard +15000
Takumi Kanaya +15000
Zach Johnson +15000
Alex Smalley +15000
Cam Davis +15000
Davis Riley +15000
Greyson Sigg +15000
J.J. Spaun +15000
Patrick Rodgers +15000
Patton Kizzire +15000
Brendan Steele +20000
Danny Lee +20000
Doug Ghim +20000
Hudson Swafford +20000
Michael Thompson +20000
Min Woo Lee +20000
Sean O’Hair +20000
Branden Grace +20000
Matt Wallace +20000
Scott Stallings +20000
Cameron Champ +25000
Henrik Stenson +25000
Rory Sabbatini +25000
Trey Mullinax +25000
Vince Whaley +25000
Adam Schenk +30000
Brandt Snedeker +30000
Hayden Buckley +30000
Nick Watney +30000
Stephan Jaeger +30000
Charl Schwartzel +35000
Graeme McDowell +35000
James Piot +35000
Kevin Tway +35000
Padraig Harrington +35000
Peter Malnati +35000
Adam Long +40000
Davis Thompson +40000
Henrik Norlander +40000
Jonathan Byrd +40000
Anirban Lahiri +50000
John Pak +50000
Paul Barjon +50000
Sam Bennett +50000
G. Koch +100000

The Honda Classic was a frustrating week to say the least. Both villains squeaked through the cut on the number, needing heroic birdies through the bear trap just to make the weekend.

Our guys had opposite fates through the final holes at key points in the tournament. Niemann missed the cut by 1 shot after water balls on 17 and 18, and Knox blew a three-shot lead with two holes to play in the final round to lose to K.H. Lee by one stroke.

Fluke events that lead to us landing on the wrong side of both matchups. Golf can be cruel, both betting it and playing it.

We’re back at it this week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational and another course (Bay Hill) with a ton of history to draw from.

For those new to the article, welcome! Every week, I use Strokes Gained data, course history and a multitude of other data points to handicap the matchups offered by both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Using a computer simulation tool I built from scratch, I simulate each available matchup 10,000 times to determine each golfer’s probability of winning. Using that winning percentage, I am able to set my own line for every matchup, and compare it against what the books are offering.

The goal is to find value in the current betting lines and give ourselves a small edge over and over to churn out profit throughout the course of the year. I picked matchups at a 61% clip for the 2020-21 PGA TOUR season and hope to continue that momentum this season.

Below, I have outlined the matchup that showed the most value in my simulations this week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. For each matchup, I provide the current line, what my simulations set the line at and why I believe it is a profitable bet.

Let’s get to it.

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Chris Kirk (-112) over Si Woo Kim (FanDuel)

My line: -146

Kirk checks a lot of boxes for me in this matchup, with advantages in both recent form and course history.

Kirk’s last two events saw him finish 14th in Phoenix and seventh last week at the Honda Classic. Both weeks saw him gain strokes in every statistical category.

There’s even more reason to be optimistic in Kirk this week. His last five starts at Bay Hill have gone eighth-15th-13th-MC-12th. Kim, meanwhile, has missed the cut in each of his last three starts here.

Si Woo ranks 105th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 112th in SG: Putting over the last 24 recorded rounds. Kirk is 45th and 53rd in those respective categories.

All in all, my model firmly puts Kirk in the driver seat of this matchup.

Bet Chris Kirk at FanDuel and get a $1,000 risk-free bet.

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