2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Matchup Pick: Chris Kirk Has Betting Value at Bay Hill

The Honda Classic was a frustrating week to say the least. Both villains squeaked through the cut on the number, needing heroic birdies through the bear trap just to make the weekend.

Our guys had opposite fates through the final holes at key points in the tournament. Niemann missed the cut by 1 shot after water balls on 17 and 18, and Knox blew a three-shot lead with two holes to play in the final round to lose to K.H. Lee by one stroke.

Fluke events that lead to us landing on the wrong side of both matchups. Golf can be cruel, both betting it and playing it.

We’re back at it this week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational and another course (Bay Hill) with a ton of history to draw from.

For those new to the article, welcome! Every week, I use Strokes Gained data, course history and a multitude of other data points to handicap the matchups offered by both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Using a computer simulation tool I built from scratch, I simulate each available matchup 10,000 times to determine each golfer’s probability of winning. Using that winning percentage, I am able to set my own line for every matchup, and compare it against what the books are offering.

The goal is to find value in the current betting lines and give ourselves a small edge over and over to churn out profit throughout the course of the year. I picked matchups at a 61% clip for the 2020-21 PGA TOUR season and hope to continue that momentum this season.

Below, I have outlined the matchup that showed the most value in my simulations this week for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. For each matchup, I provide the current line, what my simulations set the line at and why I believe it is a profitable bet.

Let’s get to it.

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Chris Kirk (-112) over Si Woo Kim (FanDuel)

My line: -146

Kirk checks a lot of boxes for me in this matchup, with advantages in both recent form and course history.

Kirk’s last two events saw him finish 14th in Phoenix and seventh last week at the Honda Classic. Both weeks saw him gain strokes in every statistical category.

There’s even more reason to be optimistic in Kirk this week. His last five starts at Bay Hill have gone eighth-15th-13th-MC-12th. Kim, meanwhile, has missed the cut in each of his last three starts here.

Si Woo ranks 105th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 112th in SG: Putting over the last 24 recorded rounds. Kirk is 45th and 53rd in those respective categories.

All in all, my model firmly puts Kirk in the driver seat of this matchup.

Bet Chris Kirk at FanDuel and get a $1,000 risk-free bet.

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