2022 BMW Championship Odds, Picks: Bet Rory McIlroy in Penultimate FedEx Cup Event
Ben Jared/PGA TOUR. Pictured: Rory McIlroy.
Click arrow to expand 2022 BMW Championship odds via BetRivers
2022 BMW Championship Odds
|Varner III, Harold||+9000|
|Si Woo Kim||+10000|
The PGA TOUR has reached the penultimate event of the 2022 season as we head to Wilmington, Delaware, to play the BMW Championship.
The top-70 players left standing in the race for the FedEx Cup will tee it up this week looking to punch their ticket to East Lake.
This is the first time the BMW Championship will be played at Wilmington Country Club, and the event has had a different host in each of the past six years.
Wilmington Country Club is a par-71 measuring 7,534 yards and features Bentgrass greens. The course was designed by Robert Trent Jones and renovated by Keith Foster in 2008.
The BMW Championship will be a no-cut event, with the top 30 players in the FedEx Cup standings moving onto the Tour Championship next week.
Past Winners at the BMW Championship
- 2021: Patrick Cantlay (-27) Caves Valley
- 2020: Jon Rahm (-4) Olympia Fields
- 2019: Justin Thomas (-25) Medinah
- 2018: Keegan Bradley (-20) Aronimink
- 2017: Marc Leishman (-23) Conway Farms
5 Key Stats For Wilmington Country Club
Let's take a look at five key metrics for Wilmington Country Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their past 24 rounds.
1. Strokes Gained: Approach
When analyzing a course that's never been utilized for a professional event, Strokes Gained: Approach is a logical place to start. The greens at Wilmington Country Club are massive, therefore proximity will be much more important than just hitting the green in regulation.
SG: App Over Past 24 Rounds
- Russell Henley (+30.9) (+7000)
- Tony Finau (+30.2) (+1400)
- Brendan Steele (+26.0) (+15000)
- Rory McIlroy (+23.9) (+1000)
- Will Zalatoris (+21.2) (+1400)
2. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking will give us a strong indicator of who's playing the best from tee to green. At this time of year, the players who are playing the best tend to win.
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tony Finau (+49.9) (+1400)
- Brendan Steele (+42.1) (+15000)
- Rory McIlroy (+39.4) (+1000)
- Cameron Young (+38.9) (+2500)
- Sungjae Im (+37.0) (+2000)
3. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)
We've consistently seen the best Bentgrass putters play well on the surface time and time again. At last year's BMW Championship, Patrick Cantlay feasted on his favorite green type and won on the back of +14.6 Strokes Gained: Putting.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Past 24 rounds:
- Patrick Cantlay (+32.2) (+1400)
- Christian Bezuidenhout (+24.3) (+9000)
- Rory McIlroy (+22.0) (+1000)
- Alex Noren (+21.1) (+13000)
- Seamus Power (+17.5) (+7000)
4. Par 3: 200+
Three of the four Par 3s at Wilmington Country Club are longer than 200 yards. With the Par 4s not incredibly long on the course, the Par 3s figure to be some of the most difficult holes for the week.
Par 3: 200+ Over Past 24 Rounds
- Matt Fitzpatrick (+4.4) (+1400)
- Aaron Wise (+3.6) (+6000)
- Xander Schauffele (+3.5) (+1400)
- Scottie Scheffler (+3.1) (+1400)
- Brendan Steele (+3.0) (+15000)
5. Birdie or Better Gained
With the exception of the 2020 BMW Championship, every rendition of the event since 2015 has had a winning score better than 20-under par. Contending this week will most likely require plenty of birdies.
Birdie or Better Gained Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Rory McIlroy (+34.9) (+1000)
- Tony Finau (+32.2) (+1400)
- Patrick Cantlay (+28.9) (+1400)
- Xander Schauffele (+28.5) (+1400)
- Will Zalatoris (+26.7) (+1400)
BMW Championship Model Rankings
Below, I've compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed: SG: Approach (26%), SG: Ball Striking (23%), Strokes Gained: Putting Bentgrass (18.4%), Birdie or Better (18.4%), and Par 3: 200+ (14%).
- Tony Finau (+1400)
- Rory McIlroy (+1000)
- Sam Burns (+2500)
- Scott Stallings (+15000)
- Xander Schauffele (+1400)
- Will Zalatoris (+1400)
- Taylor Pendrith (+9000)
- Mito Pereira (+7000)
- Scottie Scheffler (+1400)
- Patrick Cantlay (+1400)
BMW Championship Outright Bets
Rory McIlroy (+1000, BetMGM)
I am all in on Rory McIlroy this week. It's rare for me to ignore most of the board and put all of my chips on the favorite, but I believe the BMW Championship is one of the few events on TOUR where it's the most logical strategy.
The FedEx Cup playoffs typically yield elite winners, and I don't anticipate that this week will be any different. Specifically, the three most recent winners of the BMW Championship were Patrick Cantlay, who defeated Bryson DeChambeau in a playoff; Jon Rahm, who defeated Dustin Johnson in a playoff; and Justin Thomas. All five of the players who've either won or had a chance to win in the past three editions of the event have been big-name stars. There are plenty of weeks during the course of the season to chase value, but this isn't one of them.
McIlroy missed the cut at last week's FedEx Cup St. Jude Championship. For many players on TOUR, that could be a concern. Not for Rory. Three of his past eight victories on TOUR have come after a missed cut in his previous start. He won the 2018 Arnold Palmer Invitation after missing the cut at the Valspar Championship, the 2019 Canadian Open after missing the cut at the Memorial Tournament, and the 2021 Wells Fargo after missing the cut at The Masters. In addition to his wins after missed cuts, the 21-time TOUR winner also has three top-six finishes after a missed cut. It may not seem like that many, but for a player who's only missed 10 cuts since the start of the 2018 season, it's a significant sample size.
While this is a new course on TOUR, the first-glance course fit for McIlroy at Wilmington Country Club seems ideal. He's been excellent on Robert Trent Jones designs and typically plays well on tree-lined classical layouts. He's also been one of the best putters on Bentgrass this season and ranks third in the field in his past 24 rounds putting on the surface.
In addition to the incredible putting of late, McIlroy also ranks fifth in the field in his past 24 rounds in Strokes Gained: Approach. He's gained strokes on the field in nine consecutive events, and that should prove to be a major advantage this week with the greens at Wilmington Country Club being absolutely massive.
With six of the past seven BMW Championships having a winning score of -20 or better, I believe this week will be another low-scoring affair. The 33-year-old ranks first in the field in Birdie or Better and should be able to keep up with the scoring pace if the event turns into a shootout.
It's been a month since Rory's heartbreak at St. Andrews, and I believe this is the week he bounces back and adds to his all-time lead in FedEx Cup career earnings.