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2022 PGA Championship PrizePicks Plays: Mito Pereira Among 5 Picks for Final Round

2022 PGA Championship PrizePicks Plays: Mito Pereira Among 5 Picks for Final Round article feature image
Credit:

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Xander Schauffele.

Mito Pereira holds a three-shot lead at 9-under par after shooting a 69 on Saturday at Southern Hills.

Now, we look forward to Sunday’s fourth and final round, which features plenty of prop angles to attack on PrizePicks.

Below, I give out my five Round 4 PrizePicks flex plays for the 2022 PGA Championship. For those unfamiliar with PrizePicks flex plays in golf, different combinations of overs and unders generate different payouts.

Using the five plays below, getting five-of-five correct registers a 12.5x payout, four-of-five correct registers a 2x payout and three-of-five correct registers a 0.4x payout.

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PGA Championship Round 4 PrizePicks Plays

Xander Schauffele: Round 4 Over 9 Fairways Hit

Xander Schauffele sits T17 at even-par after shooting a 69 on Saturday. Schauffele only hit seven fairways in Round 3, which is why I think we are getting a generous number for Round 4.

We should see some positive regression from Schauffele as he hit 11 fairways in both Rounds 1 and 2. After hitting this prop successfully in Round 2, I am going back to the well as Schauffele has proven to have one of the better drivers on TOUR.

This season, Schauffele ranks 29th on TOUR in SG: Off-the-Tee and 70th in Driving Accuracy.

I would play this total up to 9.5.

Abraham Ancer: Round 4 Under 72 Strokes

Abraham Ancer sits in fifth place at 4-under par after shooting a 70 in the third round. After shooting a 70 or better in each of the first three rounds, I see no reason why Ancer’s success won’t continue in Round 4.

While this could be a trap line, Ancer’s play has been too good to pass up. Hitting fairways at will and showing off one of the better putters in this tournament, Ancer’s iron game would really need to regress for him not to go under this total.

I just do not see that happening as Ancer ranks 17th amongst the remaining field in SG: Approach-the-Green and 13th in SG: Tee-to-Green. While those numbers indicate some regression could appear, two full shots of regression feels like an over adjustment.

I would not play this number any lower than 72.

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Rory McIlroy: Round 4 Over 71.5 Strokes

Rory McIlroy is T17 after shooting a 74 on Saturday. After successfully hitting this prop in that round, I am going back to the well once again.

As I mentioned in my article earlier this week, iron/wedge play is key to success in the PGA Championship. After a strong start to the tournament, McIlroy’s iron/wedge play has caught up to him as he ranks just 32nd amongst the remaining field in SG: Approach-the-Green.

This number should not be too surprising as McIlroy ranks 66th on TOUR this season in SG: Approach-the-Green.

I would not play this number at anything higher than 71.5.

Cameron Smith: Round 4 Under 9 Fairways Hit

Cameron Smith is T23 after shooting a 73 on Saturday. This is another prop that I hit in Round 3 and am taking again as the number has shockingly remained the same.

Smith has gone under this total in two straight rounds and should be a good fade candidate once again as his driver is the worst part of an otherwise outstanding golf game. On TOUR, Smith ranks 143rd in SG: Off-the-Tee and 150th in Driving Accuracy.

I would play this total down to 8.5.

Mito Pereira: Round 4 Over 9.5 Fairways Hit

Sitting in first place with a three-stroke lead, Mito Pereira is in a terrific spot to claim his first PGA TOUR victory on a grand stage. With such a large lead, Pereira has the benefit of being able to play it safe with his driver and aim for accuracy over distance.

While I would like this over even if he was in 20th place, this is a huge benefit as Pereira will have no need to take dangerous chances with the big club. In this tournament, Pereira has gone over this total in all three rounds and ranks fifth amongst the field in Driving Accuracy.

I would not play this number at anything higher than 9.5.

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