2022 PLAYERS Championship Odds & Picks: Top Bets & DFS Targets at TPC Sawgrass

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We have the self-proclaimed fifth major on tap this week for THE PLAYERS. This is one of the best events of the year and it comes with the biggest purse ($20 million). The field is stacked and everyone is itching for Thursday morning.

TPC Sawgrass is a Par 72 that measures 7,256 yards. It features four par fives and a drivable par four. This is a unique course in that there are plenty of scoring opportunities and plenty of landmines. Water is in play on 17 of the 18 holes and the greens are tough to hit on average seeing as how they are only 5,500 square feet on average.

There isn't one specific skill set that will lead to success at this course. Accuracy is certainly preferred over distance off the tee, but many of the big hitters will be clubbing down on a lot of the holes. Approach play is critical each and every week and Pete Dye courses tend to reward good iron shots. Scrambling will be a tough test and the three-putt percentage here is higher than your average PGA TOUR event.

The big story of the week is the weather. The current forecast calls for rain on both Thursday and Friday, potential 30+ mph gusts on Saturday, and cold temperatures on Sunday. Golfers will not only have to battle a difficult golf course, but the elements as well.

Before we get into this week's picks, let's quickly cover the selections for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Matthew Fitzpatrick and Billy Horschel were the two outright picks and they were both in the mix on the back nine on Sunday. When betting these large outrights, that's really all you can ask for as a bettor. Ian Poulter won his matchup bet over Erik Van Rooyen and Lanto Griffin returned value as a cheap DFS option, so it was a pretty strong week overall.

Favorite Outright: Jon Rahm +1300

It's only a matter of time before Rahm's short game shows up and he starts running away with events. His ball striking is as sharp as ever, as he's gained 11.4, 9.4, and 11.4 strokes in his last three starts. He's losing strokes on and around the greens, which isn't something we expect from Rahm.

He nearly won THE PLAYERS in 2019 before making a bad decision on the back nine on Sunday and has posted progressively better finishes every time he's played the event. The stacked field allows us to get a much better number on Rahm and I'm not missing my opportunity to bet him at +1300.

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Longshot: Matt Fitzpatrick +4000

I'm going right back to the well with this one, as Fitzpatrick has now racked up five straight top 12 finishes worldwide. As noted above, you don't have to be a bomber to contend at TPC Sawgrass. Fitzpatrick isn't long off the tee, but he gains strokes thanks to his ability to pepper fairways.

He's solid with his mid-irons, he is good around the greens, and he might be the best bermudagrass putter on tour. If the conditions get bad, it could really favor some of these European Tour players that are used to playing in poor weather.

Bet Fitzpatrick at Caesars and get a $5,000 risk-free first bet.

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Matchup: Adam Scott -112 over Sam Burns

When betting matchups, we want to focus on consistency over upside. Scott has made at least 13 straight cuts at THE PLAYERS with a win and seven other top-20 finishes during that stretch. He's also made 14 of his last 15 cuts on the PGA TOUR.

Meanwhile, Burns was nearly dead last in his PLAYERS debut in 2021 and has missed three of his last four cuts on tour. The two have similar ceilings, but Scott offers the much higher floor at this particular venue.

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DFS Value: Paul Casey $7,400 DK / $9,600 FD

It's funny how a couple of rounds can change people's perception of a golfer. When salaries were first released for THE PLAYERS, everyone was quick to point out how cheap Casey was and how popular he was going to be. After shooting 17-over par on the weekend at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, the buzz around Casey is completely gone.

We've all had bad rounds of golf. If we zoom out, Casey is a perfect fit for the course and finished in the top five here last year. He has two wins in Florida and was in solid form prior to those two bad rounds at Bay Hill.

Prepare for carnage and best of luck this week!

Read more of Derek's content over at RotoGrinders.