I shared this answer at the start of the week in my Discord chat, but I liked the overall sentiment so much that I wanted to paraphrase it here for the article intro at Action.
The market is volatile here at Walnut Cove due to a lack of data, and that volatility also helps explain why books have been hesitant to take aggressive stances. We see that over and over again with shops posting generic blueprint takes that are more deeply rooted in long-term form than course fit.
In general, that's the correct way for them to play it. I've already talked quite a bit this week about how extrapolating numbers out of thin air for this "unknown test" can be dangerous. However, any true course breakdown shows where this divide comes in and how the "known" can still be found.
We get five par-three holes from 200+ yards. Long-iron proximity will come into play from 150+ onward. Those factors aren't being heavily weighted in the betting odds, which means the market is giving a stronger opening to take chances than normal.
It doesn't guarantee we will get the answers right, but it does suggest the misalignment is creating an opening we wouldn't normally see for potential value. That's where we should trust our numbers and hope for the best.
Let's dive into my Biltmore Championship picks and PGA Tour best bets for this week's event. Make sure to download the Action Network App for more picks and analysis!
Biltmore Championship Outright Picks
Benjamin James (30/1)
Ben James is entering the fall season as an undervalued youth commodity, with the market's attention on Jackson Koivun at the top. That doesn't mean Koivun isn't fairly priced and the deserving favorite, but my math puts Koivun and James closer together than public sentiment and pricing suggest.
As you can see above, James landed first in this field for 'Weighted Strokes Gained Total.' The simplified version of that return suggests that when you extrapolate the projected strokes gained metrics for Walnut Cove, James climbs to the top of the field for scoring.
I warned against extrapolating too much for a course with so many unknown variables, but for 30% of my model, it aligns with another reason the American is a real threat to take home this title.
Kevin Yu (40/1)
I got into this space eight years ago as someone who aggressively told people to prioritize ball-striking metrics over pure putting stats. Over the last eight years, the industry has probably moved too far toward that answer, day by day. However, the edge still lies in identifying parallel traits in a green complex that align with what the golfers will be playing that week and how that intersects with the aforementioned ball-striking totals.
Yu is not a good putter by the modern definition of the stat. Fifty-ninth in a weaker field doesn't scream a ton of positives, but it is worth noting that we have seen him steadily climbing the ranks this season with his flat stick.
Top-25 returns on similar greens and recent putting reinforce that narrative, and a course like Walnut Cove could deliver more upside than we've seen from him throughout his career if that putter does become a legitimate weapon.
Ben Kohles (60/1)
When I was building my model on Sunday night and Monday morning, I had to make sure that Ben Kohles' data was pulling in correctly. That is how much he was breaking my sheet across various iterations.
I don't love that this hiatus in the schedule might have put a pin in a balloon that was rising higher and higher each week, but Kohles' data stretches far beyond a recent stretch of golf that is finding optimism.
The 36-year-old posted top-five grades for the majority of the categories that I weighed this week. Does that mean upside gets found? Not necessarily, but Kohles is a safe commodity and someone who graded as a pure outlier within my data. You can also consider a top-20 if you want action on him that isn't to win this contest.
Kristoffer Ventura (70/1)
Kristoffer Ventura was the best value I had on the board when he opened in the 80s on Monday. While the price has fallen a bit into the 70s, there is still some meat left on this bone.
Ventura landed next to Jackson Koivun, Jacob Bridgeman, Doug Ghim, Davis Thompson, Ben James, Kevin Yu, Blades Brown and Ben Kohles as the only golfers in this field to grade inside the top-40 of all seven statistical categories that I weighed this week.
There are other ways to consider using him (placement bets, a matchup against Max Greyserman?, etc.), but Ventura was the first ticket that I punched for a reason.
Biltmore Championship Matchup Pick
Blades Brown over Marco Penge (+117)
I might end up being very wrong when it comes to how this course is going to play, but the flat nature of returns we have gotten from books isn't taking into account some of the neutralizing that Walnut Cove appears to do for Marco Penge on paper.
Look, I get that we are talking about a golfer who experienced health scares throughout the season and finally seems to be healthy. I understand those results have come in successfully to end the PGA Tour season and to end it over in Europe, but Penge's game is predicated on off-the-tee acumen, which this week's venue removes by taking the driver out of his hands.
If the course delivers more driving decisions and impact than I project, this could look very bad, but this is one of those weeks where pricing is about as far off my numbers as I have seen. I will take my shots and chances.
