2022 Presidents Cup Odds & Expert Picks: 2 Best Bets Featuring Patrick Cantlay & Adam Scott
Simon Baker/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Australian golfer Adam Scott
After a three-year hiatus, the Presidents Cup is back.
It's the United States' turn to host the event as we head to historic Quail Hollow to settle the 14th edition of the Presidents Cup.
Back in 2019, the U.S. team defeated the International team at Royal Melbourne, 16-14, in an exciting event. The events hosted by the U.S. haven't gone as well for the International team with only one of those events having a margin of victory of fewer than three points (1996 at Robert Trent Jones Golf Club).
Overall, the U.S. team is 13-1-1 overall against the International team.
It was going to be an uphill climb for Internationals regardless, but the task looks even more challenging now that they've lost some of their best players to the LIV Golf series. Cameron Smith, Marc Leishman, Louis Oosthuizen, Joaquin Niemann and Abraham Ancer are all unable to compete.
Quail Hollow is a par-71 that will be playing at 7,576 yards. The course features Bermuda-grass greens. The tree-lined, parkland-style course can play quite difficult, and it features one of the most difficult three-hole stretches in golf known as "The Green Mile," which typically is holes 16-18, but this week will play as holes 13-15. Additionally, the ninth hole with now play as the 18th. Quail's "The Green Mile" features two mammoth par 4s and a 221-yard par 3.
Thursday will feature five four-ball matches, and Friday will have five foursome matches. On Saturday, the teams will play four four-ball matches in the morning, and team play will conclude with four foursome matches in the afternoon. On Sunday, all 12 players on both teams will compete in a singles match.
Let’s take a look at several key metrics for Quail Hollow to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
1. Strokes Gained: Approach
Strokes gained: Approach will be extremely important this week as second shots at Quail Hollow can be very difficult. Great iron players such as Justin Thomas have had tremendous success at the course.
Total SG: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds
- Tony Finau (+19.7)
- Scottie Scheffler (+18.5)
- Corey Conners (+18.3)
- Xander Schauffele (+17.8)
- Collin Morikawa (+16.5)
2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
Quail Hollow is a long course where it is important to play from the fairway. Both distance and accuracy are important, as shorter tee shots will result in approach shots from 200+ yards. With most of the holes heavily tree-lined, errant drives will create some real trouble for the players in their matches.
Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Past 24 Rounds:
- Taylor Pendrith (+20.4)
- Cameron Young (+19.8)
- Sungjae Im (+17.8)
- Scottie Scheffler (+17.4)
- Justin Thomas (+15.3)
3. Proximity: 200+
The length of Quail Hollow is a major factor this week and will result in some very long approach shots. Additionally, three of the 4 par 3s are more than 200 yards.
Proximity: 200+ over past 24 rounds:
- Xander Schauffele (+27.8)
- Max Homa (+17.8)
- Cameron Davis (+15.7)
- Collin Morikawa (+15.5)
- Viktor Hovland (+15.1)
4. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda-grass)
Strokes Gained: Putting has historically graded out as the most important statistic at Quail Hollow. While it isn’t always predictable, I do want to have it in the model to bump up golfers who prefer to putt on Bermuda grass. Putting becomes even more important in match play.
Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermudagrass) Over Past 24 Rounds
- Sam Burns (+22.0)
- Kevin Kisner (+19.0)
- Sungjae Im (+12.6)
- Adam Scott (+9.8)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+8.9)
5. Par 4: 450-500
Quail Hollow features five par 4s measuring between 450-500 yards. These holes are among the most difficult on the course.
Par 4: 450-500 over past 24 rounds
- Tony Finau (+18.6)
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+10.3)
- Taylore Pendrith (+9.9)
- Max Homa (+9.6)
- Patrick Cantlay (+9.2)
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Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Thomas.
The Presidents Cup Model Rankings
Below, I've compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed – SG: Approach (25.2%); SG: Off the Tee (23.2%); Proximity: 200+(19.2%); SG: Putting Bermuda grass (16.2%); and Par 4: 450-500 (16.2%).
- Sungjae Im
- Scottie Scheffler
- Xander Schauffele
- Taylor Pendrith
- Tony Finau
- Patrick Cantlay
- Cameron Davis
- Justin Thomas
- Corey Conners
- Collin Morikawa
Presidents Cup Best Bets
Top United States Point Scorer: Patrick Cantlay (+700 via Bet365)
The theme this week throughout both of my "Top Team Points Scorer" bets is going to be volume.
For the U.S. team, one thing I am reasonably sure of is that Patrick Cantlay will be playing with Xander Schauffele, and they will be playing quite often. The duo has played together in both a Presidents Cup and a Ryder Cup, and were incredibly successful in those matches. They also won the Zurich Classic as a team this past season, looking absolutely dominant in the process. Cantlay and Schauffele have a 4-0 record in foursome matches in the Presidents Cup and Ryder Cup combined.
The other duo that should be playing all of the matches are Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth. While they have a strong chance to challenge both Cantlay and Schauffele in this market, I give the edge to the latter due to their current form. Both players have won in their past five individual starts and are playing like top-5 players in the world.
The question now becomes whether or not Cantlay will beat Schauffele in this market, and it will come down to the Sunday singles matches. In their career (including Presidents Cup, Ryder Cup, Dell Match Play) Schauffele has an overall record of 5-4 in singles matches, and Cantlay has an overall record of 8-3. I'm giving the edge to Cantlay.
Top International Point Scorer: Adam Scott (+750 via Bet365)
Adam Scott is the player I expect to receive much of the "volume" for the International Team.
Despite being 42, the Australian will be hell-bent on going out there for as many matches as possible and helping his team battle a far superior United States Team. Since 2003, Scott has played in 42 of the 45 possible sessions for the International Team.
Speaking to Golf Digest, Scott was bullish on his ability to help his team succeed on the golf course:
"I’m there to win points like everyone else. Without loading pressure on myself, it clearly looks good for the rest of the team if I go out and win some matches. My head is going to be focused on doing just that."
Scott's trip to Quail Hollow will make him the first-ever international player to make 10 career starts in the Presidents Cup. The former Masters champion is the team's leader both on and off the course, and I fully expect him to score some points for his team, regardless of whom he is paired with.
Scott also has been playing some encouraging golf of late, with two top-5 finishes during the FedEx Cup playoffs. He's made it a point to be in form for this event, and I believe in his ability as a competitor to do his job for the Internationals.
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