2022 Sentry Tournament of Champions Betting Pick: ‘The Gimme’ Prop Bet Features Justin Thomas & Jordan Spieth
Tom Pennington/Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Thomas (left) and Jordan Spieth.
Every week during the PGA TOUR season, “The Gimme,” our streaming show on the GolfBet platform, will offer an exclusive prop bet with boosted odds that is available through BetMGM. Here is the breakdown for this week’s Gimme prop.
Sentry Tournament of Champions Betting Odds
Click for full odds, as of Wednesday afternoon via BetMGM.
|Si Woo Kim||+8000|
|Erik van Rooyen||+10000|
Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth to each finish top-10: +350
I’m usually a fan of looking into top-five/top-10 props in tournaments with shortened fields. This ain’t rocket science: The fewer players in the field, the easier it is for one of ‘em to finish inside a certain number on the leaderboard.
This week’s event at Kapalua’s Plantation Course includes 38 players in the field and while it’s stacked with superstars — seven of the top-eight on the OWGR are in attendance — the winners-only caveat means that the bottom half of the field isn’t as talent-laden as, perhaps, the Tour Championship or some WGC events.
Betting a player to finish top-10 this week means he only needs to beat less than 75% of the field, rather than the usual 92% or so in a full field.
With that in mind, let’s get to our two protagonists for this week’s prop.
In case you haven’t heard, Justin Thomas is pretty good around this place. In six career starts, he owns two victories and two top-five finishes. While the course certainly suits his game — and let’s face it, as one of the world’s best players, there aren’t many courses which don’t suit Thomas’ game — I believe that it’s as much about JT’s preparation that has led to his success here as anything else.
There are undoubtedly players coming into this week who might not have been grinding too much on the practice range during the recent holiday season and will use this week to still figure some things out. Thomas isn’t one of them. On the show this week, I’ll be taking him for a top-five, so it stands to reason that, yes, I do indeed like him for a top-10, as well.
That leaves new dad Jordan Spieth, who’s hoping for a little baby-bump/nappy-factor that we’ve seen from other first-time fathers who have found success in recent years.
“The Gimme” is live tonight at 8:30pm ET!
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Spieth understandably didn’t play too much golf during the fall portion of the 2021-22 PGA TOUR season, only competing in two events and finishing DFL at last month’s Hero World Challenge. Recent form doesn’t mean much when we’re coming off the only extended break of the season, though.
What matters more to me is the fact that, much like his good buddy JT, Spieth tends to prepare seriously for this event — and it’s shown in his previous results. In four prior starts at Kapalua, he owns a victory and nothing worse than a ninth-place showing.
There’s also further reason for optimism and it comes from Spieth himself.
“I feel really good,” he said Tuesday in advance of this week’s event. “I feel like this is the first off-season in quite a few years where it felt like I was very confident each day going out, that what I was doing was pushing me to the better. Instead of going out, getting frustrated over a couple days and trying something new, I stuck with the exact same game plan and just tried to continue to sharpen it.”
That’s all I needed to hear.
It’s a parlay prop where you’ll need both players to pull their weight, but a conservative one against a small field. I like each of these guys to come out firing and look like they’re in mid-year form this week.
The play: Bet the prop at +350