2022 Shriners Children’s Open Final Round Buys & Fades: Cantlay Set for Revenge on Tom Kim
Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Cantlay.
The third round at the Shriners Children's Open was highlighted by some really low rounds by the biggest names in the tournament. Both of the past two winners made charges up the leaderboard on Moving Day, with Patrick Cantlay leading the way. His 11-under round of 60 moved him into the lead before he would be matched at the top after a dart for birdie from Tom Kim on the par 4 18th to cap off a 9-under 62 of his own.
Kim and Cantlay will make up the final pairing on Sunday in what is a dream setup for the TOUR and fans alike. The budding star in Kim will get his shot to go head to head against one of the top players in the world and a recent Presidents Cup adversary. They are three shots ahead of the rest of the field, but defending champ Sungjae Im is just four shots short of the lead after his 8-under 63.
It doesn't get much better in the fall swing than the Sunday we are set up for from Vegas. I'm pumped to see it play out, though I don't expect to get much value at the top from the bookmakers.
Strokes Gained Explanation
Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer has truly played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field.
Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.
In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
In general, SG: Ball Striking and SG: Tee-to-Green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.
You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but are just not getting putts to drop. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.
3 Golfers to Buy in Round 4
As if Patrick Cantlay needed a reason for extra motivation, you've got to think he will have a little bit of it after Tom Kim beat him in singles match play on Sunday at the Presidents Cup. I'll take that as the edge for the more established winner on TOUR, though I can't say that it feels overly great against what seems to be a budding superstar in Tom Kim.
The "stick with our buy" play of the week has to be with Sungjae Im. He was a buy for us at +2200 going into the round on Saturday and certainly did nothing to change that sentiment. Unfortunately, Sungjae ran into a buzzsaw in both Cantlay and Kim, leaving him still four shots back going into the final round. I'll stick to my read there and say if there is any player not in that final pair that I expect to win, it has to be the 2021 champion of this event.
If you're looking for a player that can make a climb into the top 10 or better on Sunday, I'd go to Kevin Yu. He is the only player beyond that current top 10 gaining more than a shot per round both off the tee and on approach. He is dialed in with his ball striking and that is what I am looking for in a player to climb up the board with the pressure rising on Sunday.
3 Golfers to Fade in Round 4
I don't want to fade Tom Kim, but when I make my play for the winner, his co-leader has to be a fade. That's just simply how it works. The truth is that both players are playing some great golf and showing that they are the upper class of this field, but only one will come away with the win. I'm picking Cantlay on the expectation we see some "Patty Ice" in the final round and a quick reminder that while Tom is on the rise, he isn't quite there just yet.
Si Woo Kim is another of my favorites, but if I'm calling it like I see it, he also needs to be a Sunday fade. He has progressively gotten worse in the key approach category this week, as he was only .30 shots better than the field on Saturday. If the trend continues into Saturday he is headed for a loss in that metric and that is the type of scenario that could lead him to dropping from his current position inside the top 10.
If we are looking at the overall numbers to find someone who doesn't belong by their current position, it has to be Beau Hossler. The former Texas Longhorn has gained just .34 shots on the field tee to green this week, and he only posted a positive .56 strokes gained on approach in his 7-under round on Saturday. None of this adds up to a player set for a top 20 type of finish, which gives him my final fade for Sunday.