2022 Tour Championship Final Round Best Bets: Stick with Scheffler
Weather put a halt to the Tour Championship on Saturday as the final group made it through just twelve holes of the third round. It took nearly that many holes for leader Scottie Scheffler to find his next birdie as he went from the 12th on Friday to the 8th in Round 3 before he made anything other than par.
The issue for Scheffler is that everyone around him was still taking advantage of the soft conditions and he now only has a one shot advantage over Xander Schauffele. Sungjae Im and Rory McIlroy are also lurking within four shots of his lead, which makes it a much more interesting tournament with twenty-six holes still to play on Sunday.
I won’t get into the strokes gained data as we normally do for a Sunday final round, as with just partial round information, we can’t get too much out of it before they start back up in the morning. I do expect the nerves to be up much more than they have the first few days, which could have this thing tighten up even further with the big purse on the line. Let’s see if any value sticks out as we head into Sunday at the final event of the season.
Scottie Scheffler +110 (BetMGM)
I still think the eventual champion will be the player that has separated himself this season, Scottie Scheffler. While he hasn’t been able to find the line and speed on the greens over the past twenty or so holes, he is putting himself in position to score. He rates 5th in the field in SG: Approach across the holes played this week, which is better than all four of his closest contenders.
If he keeps doing that, I think the putting will come back to him and he should be able to build back some of the cushion he had earlier in the week.
Collin Morikawa Top 10
I’m willing to go down with the ship on my reads this week. I have been consistently buying these same players each round, and I’ll do so again with Collin Morikawa. Hopefully he can avoid a double digit score tomorrow, as his overall play has been fantastic, especially on approach.
He ranks at the top of the field with his irons, which is something we have come to expect from him, but again the putter has been balky. I am hopeful he can put one round together at the most important time as the pressure of the size of the purse gets to some of those around him. Each shot will be worth a ton on Sunday and I’m backing Morikawa to climb while others falter.
Jordan Spieth DFS/Matchups
Since we don’t have the third round completed yet, we are limited on where we can take our action for Sunday. I will be going right back to Jordan Spieth in some capacity, as I refuse to believe he can continue to go through this week with the poor putting he has displayed. He regressed even further on Saturday when he lost 1.43 strokes on the greens.
Spieth has generally rolled it well at East Lake with two Tour Championships to his name where he gained more than six strokes putting during the week. He rates 9th this week in SG: Approach and I think Sunday may be the round where he finally pairs that good iron play with some putting.
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