2022 World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba Odds, Expert Picks & Preview: Jason Day, Emiliano Grillo Fit El Camaleón Golf Club

After the Irishman Seamus Power prevailed at Port Royal in Bermuda, the PGA TOUR heads to Playa Del Carmen, Mexico for the 2022 World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba at El Camaleón Golf Club.

Previously named The Mayakoba Golf Classic and the OHL at Mayakoba, the event has been a TOUR stop since 2007 but was an alternate event until 2014 when it was moved to November and became the primary event. Since then, the tournament has offered full FedEx Cup points and now has a purse of $8.2 million.

The field is very strong for the second consecutive year and is a major upgrade over last week's field.  Some of the notable golfers among the 132 in the field include: Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Tony Finau and Billy Horschel.

El Camaleón Golf Club is a 7,039-yard, par-71 Greg Norman design featuring paspalum greens. This short, coastal track has played relatively easy since the tournament's switch to November but could get tricky if the wind doesn't cooperate.

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Past Winners at El Camaleón Golf Club

• 2021: Viktor Hovland (-23)
• 2020: Viktor Hovland (-20)
• 2019: Brendon Todd (-20)
• 2018: Matt Kuchar (-22)
• 2017: Patton Kizzire (-19)
• 2016: Pat Perez (-21)
• 2015: Kevin Kisner (-18)
• 2014: Charlie Hoffman (-17)
• 2013: Harris English (-21)

Let's take a look at several metrics for El Camaleón Golf Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

Strokes Gained: Approach

The greens at El Camaleón are large, soft and slow. Therefore, players should be firing at pins. The green complexes are among the easiest on TOUR, so elite approach play will be key, as usual.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:

1. Tom Hoge (+25.9) (+3000)
2. Collin Morikawa (+19.9) (+1800)
3. Tony Finau (+19.7) (+1400)
4. Mark Hubbard (+18.4) (+13000)
5. Russell Henley (+15.4) (+6000)

Fairways Gained

El Camaleón is a course where consistent and accurate driving is rewarded. Being a short course, golfers can't bomb their way around the track.

Total Fairways Gained in past 24 rounds:

1. Ryan Armour (+37.0) (+20000)
2. Adam Long (+34.2) (+7000)
3. Ryan Moore(+33.8) (+40000)
4. Brendon Todd (+32.8) (+4500)
5. Chez Reavie (+31.1) (+18000)

Strokes Gained Total: Paspalum

Paspalum greens are a different surface than what most of the TOUR players are used to. They can be bumpy and slow, and certain golfers tend to really thrive on them year in, year out.

Comparable greens can be found at TPC Kuala Lumpur (CIMB Classic), Coco Beach Golf and Country Club (Puerto Rico Open) and Corales Golf Club (Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship).

Total Strokes Gained: Paspalum in past 24 rounds:

1. Billy Horschel (+44.3) (+1600)
2. Brandon Wu (+36.6) (+14000)
3. Emiliano Grillo (+35.8) (+4000)
4. Adam Long (+35.7) (+7000)
5. Aaron Wise (+30.1) (+1600)

Opportunities Gained

With the soft conditions we typically see at El Camaleón, it will be important to target golfers who consistently see birdie opportunities from within 15 feet. Historically, poor putters have done fairly well on paspalum, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see a typically strong tee to green player get hot with the flat stick.

Total strokes gained in category in past 24 rounds:

1. Tom Hoge (+28.7) (+3000)
2. Russell Henley (+17.2) (+6000)
3. Scottie Scheffler (+16.4) (+900)
4. Kevin Streelman (+14.8) (+13000)
5. Justin Suh (+14.2) (+15000)

Greens in Regulation Gained

GIR Percentage at El Camaleón has been a key indicator of success for past winners. Statistically, GIR has also been more of a factor here than average for a PGA TOUR event. If you are missing greens in regulation this week, it will be almost impossible to keep up with the low scores on top of the leaderboard. The last five winners of the event have finished in the top 10 for greens in regulation.

Total strokes gained in category in past 24 rounds:

1. Tony Finau (+34.7) (+1400)
2. Scottie Scheffler (+32.3) (+900)
3. Sepp Straka (+31.2) (+8000)
4. Adri Arnaus (+25.8) (+20000)
5. Russell Henley (+24.8) (+6000)

Statistical Model

Below, I've reported overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: App (25%) Fairways Gained (25%); SG: Paspalum (20%); Opportunities Gained (15%); and, GIR Gained (15%)

1. Emiliano Grillo (+4000)
2. Billy Horschel (+1800)
3. Hayden Buckley (+8000)
4. Scottie Scheffler (+900)
5. Russell Henley (+6000)
6. Collin Morikawa (+1800)
7. Aaron Rai (+8000)
8. David Lipsky (+18000)
9. Adam Long (+7000)
10. Russell Knox (+10000)

2022 World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba Best Bets

Emiliano Grillo +4000 (Caesars)

Emiliano Grillo has played most of his best golf on shorter resort-style courses in this region of the world and/or on Paspalum Greens. He has a second (2015) and third (2020) place finish at the Puerto Rico Open, a sixth at Corales (2021), and three top-10 finishes at El Camaleón (2016, 2017 & 2020). 

The 30-year-old has played a lot of golf on Paspalum, and it's the only putting surface he's a positive putter on for his career.

Grillo didn't play well in his most recent start in Japan, but his overall run of form is impressive. He has four top-10 finishes in his past 10 starts, including two of the past four. As frustrating as Grillo can be at times, he's more than capable of winning on this course against this field.

Jason Day +5000 (DraftKings)

Although I'm not entirely sure this is the right course for Day to finally break his four-year winless streak, he's playing too well to ignore. In his past two starts, the former No. 1 player in the world has gained an average of 6.9 strokes on the field from tee to green. His game is clicking on all cylinders, and he's even gained strokes putting in two consecutive events after a rough stretch on the greens.

The most important factor in going back to Day this week is his consistency. We've seen flashes of strong finishes from the 34-year-old, but his problem has been putting four rounds of good golf together. That changed in his most recent start where he finally shot four rounds in the 60s (69, 69, 69 & 67) for the first time in almost two calendar years.

I truly believe Day is in for a resurgent 2023. He may never be at the level he was at his peak, but he seems as healthy as he's been in recent memory and should contend in this field.

Matt Kuchar +6600(DraftKings)

Matt Kuchar is returning to the course where he infamously had a financial mishap with the local caddie, El Tucan. On the golf course, Kuchar was excellent, which should be no surprise given the type of players who have succeeded at El Camaleón. His lack of length off of the tee doesn't hurt him here, and when he's on, he's one of the best putters on TOUR. 

Kuchar has had a bit of a resurgence of late. In his past two starts, the 44-year-old has gained an average of 6.4 strokes from tee to green. Ironically, he hasn't putted very well in those two starts. If Kuchar finds his usually trustworthy putting stroke, he has a chance to be a repeat winner at El Camaleón.

Cameron Champ +13000(DraftKings)

Cameron Champ is incredibly inconsistent but wins golf tournaments at a pretty high clip. The 27-year-old has three wins since 2018, which means he wins almost once a year on average.

When looking at Champ's past wins, it's pretty clear that he's the type of player to at least hint that the win may be coming. In his three victories, his worst finish in the week prior was 28th. Despite a bad run of form so far in the 2022-2023 season, Champ finished eighth in his most recent start at the ZOZO Championship.

Amazingly, two starts prior to each of his wins, he's posted a MC, 65th and MC. This shows that he really only needs one good start to spike for a win, and a consistent run of form hasn't been necessary.

Champ has also shown he enjoys playing in Mexico, having finished sixth at the Mexico Open at Vidanta back in May of 2022. His putting was excellent that week (+6.8 SG), and he will see similar Paspalum greens once again at El Camaleón.

This is a short price to pay for a player who offers consistent win equity year in and year out.

Brandon Wu +14000(DraftKings)

Thus far throughout his career, Brandon Wu has been sensational on courses that feature paspalum grass.

Last year, Wu had some of his best starts at the Corales and the Puerto Rico Open, both of which have paspalum greens. The 25-year-old Wu finished 28th at Corales and third in Puerto Rico. The Stanford product also finished seventh in Puerto Rico in 2021. For this reason, I bet Wu at the Mexico Open at Vidanta last year for a top-10 finish and outright. He finished second in the event despite being 150-1 pre-tournament.

I believe in Wu's talent long term. He won the 2020 Korn Ferry Tour Championship in a year where there were a lot of good players competing. He's had an encouraging start to his PGA TOUR career, and I think he will build off of that success this week in Mexico.

Kevin Yu +15000(DraftKings)

Kevin Yu is a former Arizona State Sun Devil with loads of talent. We saw that talent start to come to fruition at last week's Butterfield Bermuda Championship, where he finished in a tie for third place.

In his three starts in October, the 2022 Korn Ferry Tour graduate has finished 19th, 37th and third respectively. El Camaleón may just be the best course fit we've seen thus far for Yu. He is an accurate driver of the ball and has a similar game to some players who have been successful at this course in the past.

Yu got a small taste of what it's like to be in contention on the weekend last week. That experience should prove to be consequential if he finds himself back in the mix in Mexico.