2022 Wyndham Championship Round 3 Odds and Picks: Big Names Linger Behind the Leaders
(Photo by Eakin Howard/Getty Images) Pictured: Will Zalatoris.
Friday at the Wyndham Championship turned into a bit of a marathon as bad weather halted play in the afternoon, leaving a few players still on the course needing to finish the second round. They'll wrap it up on Saturday morning before starting the third round, which will bring in many eyes as the cutline hangs in the balance depending on the finish of a couple of players right around the number.
I'll focus on players within the number for now, but with everyone separated by at most eight shots, there are very few players eliminated from contention. Kevin Kisner was seven shots back as the weekend started last year, showing that players can come from behind at Segefield Country Club. Let's see if we can find a few players with a chance to make a jump up the leaderboard on moving day in Greensboro.
Strokes Gained Explanation
Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer has truly played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field.
Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.
In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
In general, SG: Ball Striking and SG: Tee-to-Green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.
You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but are just not getting putts to drop. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.
3 Golfers to Buy in Round 3
Since I'm going to be looking for some guys to play their way to the top with a bunch of players ahead of them, I'll look to the talent of the field. I really think Davis Riley is going to be one of those guys in the mix at the end of the week, but since we bought on him at a nice number yesterday, I'll instead turn my attention to Tyrrell Hatton.
Hatton put together another nice round on Friday, but fell short of going really low. His irons really started to shine as he gained 1.79 shots on the field while maintaining his strong short game. If he can keep that going and just improve some off the tee, he has the skillset to put a low round together and get in contention. I'd be willing to take a shot on that at +3600 on FanDuel.
If I'm betting some money on a player to come from well back and make a run at the title by Sunday it has to be on Will Zalatoris. He was one of the studs coming into the tournament and while he used a couple of eagles to get him into the weekend down the back nine on Friday, he's too good of a player to stay down long. I'll take a bite at +5500 on DraftKings as I think we may see the Wake Forest product go low with his third round.
Si Woo Kim is another player from six back that I will take a shot on going into Saturday. He was really sharp with his game tee to green on Friday as he went bogey-free on the round. However, he was unable to capitalize on some chances due to a balky putter. Kim gained more than three shots on the field tee to green in the second round, including 1.92 on approach, but he gave back 1.25 with the putter. He is someone with an impeccable history around this course and has gained shots on the field on these greens in each of the past three years. I expect he will find his way on Saturday and at +9000, it's worth a shot to see if Kim can move into the hunt before the final round.
3 Golfers to Fade in Round 3
Everything about the numbers for Joohyung "Tom" Kim say he's a fade going into Round 3. It really pains me to do it though, because he seems so incredibly likeable and has been really fun to watch early in his career. I'll put that bias aside though and take on the fade for a guy who has made more than 150 feet of putts in EACH of the first two rounds. Kim was better on Friday, gaining better than a shot on the field with his irons, but his putter has put up over eight shots on the field through two days. Needless to say that seems unsustainable and if his play doesn't continue to improve tee to green, he won't be able to hold that top spot for long on Saturday.
Let's go bold and fade the biggest name at the top, Sungjae Im. It may not end well, but I always get worried when we see ball striking struggles from him. They certainly popped up in a big way Friday when he lost 1.18 shots to the field with his irons and more than a half shot tee to green. He really struggled down the back nine as he only gained shots on the field on approach on one of his final nine holes. That is a big concern for me and enough to put me on the fade for the South Korean going into Saturday's Round 3.
Martin Trainer has gained over seven strokes putting across the first two days of the Wyndham Championship. The flatstick carried him to consecutive rounds of 67 and a T10 standing going into the weekend. While he did actually gain .16 shots on the field tee to green on Friday, it was with field average play in nearly every metric and so I again will hit the fade on him going into the third round. There is nothing that points to Trainer staying in the mix, especially if scoring picks up this weekend.
StrokesGained Data for All Players in Round 2
*Cutline to be determined Saturday morning when Round 2 is completed
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