2022 ZOZO Championship Round 3 Odds & Picks: Value on Xander Schauffele and Tom Kim
Atsushi Tomura/Getty Images. Pictured: Xander Schauffele.
It was a struggle in Round 2 for a couple of players that led the way after the first round, including first round leader Brendan Steele. He opened the round with a double bogey and would pile two more bogeys on top of that to go to four over through just three holes in his first round.
He'd eventually end the day at 3-over, dropping from solo first to T24. While he struggled, many others took advantage of good playing conditions from Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club.
John Huh came through with the low round of the day and week so far as he fired a bogey-free, 9-under 61. He vaulted his way all the way up to solo fourth just two shots back of the lead. Those leaders, Andrew Putnam and Rickie Fowler, had the second and third best rounds of the day with 8 and 7-under scores respectively.
They've got a one shot edge over Keegan Bradley in third, but the big storyline building is with twenty-two year old Keita Nakajima. The former top ranked amateur in the world is making big noise this week in his home country and it'll be fun to watch as he looks to handle the pressure of being in contention just a few tournaments into his professional career.
The field has spread out just a touch after two rounds with just twelve players sitting inside of five shots from the lead. As John Huh showed us though, really low scores can be out there for a player that has a complete game, which can certainly keep the longer shots in play with two rounds to go.
Best Bets
Xander Schauffele +2000 (FanDuel)
Heading into Round 3, I am betting it with a mindset that I don't have too much worry that the top four players on the leaderboard will run away from the rest of the field with a low score. Keegan may be the biggest concern near the top but with him on my card to start the week, I can look to add some names that I think move into position before Sunday.
Xander Schauffele is one of those names as the pre-tournament favorite has two scores in the sixties, but has yet to be able to put a complete round together. He ranks in a tie for second for the key greens-in-regulation metric this week, having missed just seven greens through the first thirty-six holes, but has only converted that into seven birdies for the week.
I expect that we see him capitalize on more of those opportunities especially on the par 5s where he is just two under in the six times he's played those holes. If he can gather some momentum, he is certainly a player that can go low and set himself up for a late tee time in the final round and the odds are now stretched just enough to take that shot.
Tom Kim +148 over Cameron Young Round 3 Matchup (FanDuel)
This is just an odds play for me as I think it's natural that Kim has come out a bit sluggish to start the week after his second career win last week in Vegas. He still finds himself under par and within the top half of this field and I wouldn't be surprised to see him put together a good Round 3.
While I expect his game to improve and have seen some up and down stats for Cameron Young through two rounds, it's more about the numbers here in this matchup for me. I just don't think there is a scenario where Young should be -176 over Kim for an eighteen hole matchup, implying a 63.77% win probability.
I don't have a problem with Young being favored but this number is quite a bit too long, creating solid value on Tom Kim for Round 3.
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