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2023 AT&T Byron Nelson Odds & Picks: Bet Michael Kim, Seamus Power & Sam Stevens at TPC Craig Ranch

2023 AT&T Byron Nelson Odds & Picks: Bet Michael Kim, Seamus Power & Sam Stevens at TPC Craig Ranch article feature image
Credit:

Via Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Michael Kim of the United States plays his shot from the sixth tee during the third round of the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Country Club on May 06, 2023 in Charlotte, North Carolina.

As anticipation mounts for the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club, the PGA Tour will make one final pit stop at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas to play the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson.

Last year was the second time TPC Craig Ranch hosted the Byron Nelson. Prior to 2021, the event was held at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas.

TPC Craig Ranch is a 7,414-yard par-71 that features Bentgrass greens. The event historically plays relatively easy, and that has remained the case in the two editions at TPC Craig Ranch.

The course structure may provide some additional intrigue with the par-3 17th featuring a stadium setup called “Ranch 17” which is reminiscent of the 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale. The course also has both long and difficult par-4s mixed with drivable par-4s, which should create some exciting moments.

Today we’re getting a look at “Ranch 17” here at TPC Craig Ranch. It’ll be the first time the Byron Nelson has a fully enclosed stadium at 17.

They wanted more energy with this addition, and they hope more people/an enclosed backdrop will provide it. pic.twitter.com/bnNtsJ87jc

— Joseph Hoyt (@JoeJHoyt) April 18, 2023

There are 156 golfers in the field this week, and many stars will be taking the week off to prepare for 2023’s second major championship. Notable players in the field include Scottie Scheffler, Tyrrell Hatton, Hideki Matsuyama and Jason Day. Jordan Spieth unfortunately withdrew from the AT&T Byron Nelson on Monday due to a wrist injury.

Past Winners of the AT&T Byron Nelson

  • 2022: K.H. Lee (-26 at TPC Craig Ranch)
  • 2021: K.H. Lee (-25 at TPC Craig Ranch)
  • 2019: Sung Kang (-23)
  • 2018: Aaron Wise (-23)
  • 2017: Billy Horschel (-12)
  • 2016: Sergio Garcia (-15)
  • 2015: Steven Bowditch (-18)


5 Key Stats at TPC Craig Ranch

Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Craig Ranch to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

Strokes Gained: Approach remains the best measure of current form.

Hot iron play will be at a premium this week. Last year, K.H. Lee was ninth in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, gaining 5.2 strokes. In his 2021 victory, he was second in the field and gained 8.3 strokes on the field in the category.

Strokes Gaines: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+25.7)
  2. Tom Hoge (+20.6)
  3. Kevin Roy (+17.3)
  4. Stephan Jaeger (+16.8)
  5. Eric Cole (15.7)

2. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

Fairways are wide at TPC Craig Ranch.

Distance will certainly be helpful, and there aren’t too many difficult holes on the course. Golfers who put themselves in position off of the tee this week should have a sizable advantage.

Strokes Gained: Off the Tee Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+23.2)
  2. Luke List (+21.3)
  3. Tyrrell Hatton (+20.1)
  4. Brent Grant (+16.8)
  5. Tyler Duncan (+13.8)

3. Birdie or Better

There aren’t many hazards on the course, and all of the par-5s should be reachable in two for the majority of the players in the field. I am anticipating a birdie fest, and this statistic should be helpful in finding the birdie-makers.

Birdie or Better Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+23.2)
  2. Sam Stevens (+20.9)
  3. Sam Ryder (+17.0)
  4. Taylor Montgomery (+17.0)
  5. Jason Day (+16.9)

4. Par 3: 200+ Yards

Three of the four par 3s at TPC Craig Ranch measure over 200 yards (No. 4: 219, No. 7: 232 and No. 15: 216).

This week, I will be looking for golfers who can play these difficult par-3s effectively and who have strong proximity statistics on similarly long holes.

Par 3: 200+ Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Justin Suh (+4.1)
  2. Stephan Jaeger (+3.9)
  3. Aaron Rai (+3.8)
  4. Scottie Scheffler (+3.7)
  5. Tom Hoge (+3.1)

5. Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass)

Many golfers on TOUR have some major putting surface variance in their statistics and prefer bentgrass to other surfaces.

Bentgrass is common in Texas, and we often see golfers who play well in Texas continue to do so, finding a great feel around the greens.

Strokes Gained: Putting (Bentgrass) Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+29.6)
  2. Justin Lower (+27.0)
  3. Maverick McNealy (+25.3)
  4. Austin Cook (+21.6)
  5. Seung-yul Noh (+21.4)


AT&T Byron Nelson Model Rankings

Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), SG: OTT (25%), Birdie or Better (22%), Par-3: 200+ (12%), and SG: Putting Bentgrass (14%).

  1. Scottie Scheffler
  2. Sam Stevens
  3. Tyrrell Hatton
  4. Jason Day
  5. Eric Cole
  6. Tyler Duncan
  7. Aaron Rai
  8. Hideki Matsuyama
  9. Matt Kuchar
  10. Justin Suh

2023 AT&T Byron Nelson Picks

Seamus Power +4500 (BetRivers)

After winning in the fall and starting off 2023 hot with four consecutive top-25 finishes, Seamus Power finally cooled off from mid-February until last week. At Quail Hollow, the Irishman finished 18th at the most recent designated event in a field with some of the best players in the world. While the strong showing at the Wells Fargo Championship may have been an aberration, I believe Power is a better player than most in his price range and is therefore worth the gamble.

In addition to the impressive start last week, Power also has encouraging course history at TPC Craig Ranch. In his two starts at the golf course, the 35-year-old has finishes of ninth and 17th. It’s not a surprise that Power plays the course well, as he’s excelled on easy tracks throughout his career. His two PGA Tour victories featured scores of -21 (Barbasol Championship) and -19 (Butterfield Bermuda). Considering the winning score this week should be in the -22 range, the event should be right in Power’s wheelhouse.

Power is a great putter on Bentgrass greens and has shown the ability to beat up on weaker PGA Tour fields over the past few seasons.


Michael Kim +9000 (FanDuel)

K.H. Lee, who was born in Seoul, South Korea, has won in back-to-back years at the AT&T Byron Nelson. This year, I believe another golfer who hails from Seoul has a strong chance to get into contention at TPC Craig Ranch.

Michael Kim, who was born in South Korea but raised in California, has a golf pedigree that is difficult for the majority of PGA Tour players to match. The 29-year-old is a former Haskins Award winner and was the first player from Cal to win the award in 43 years. After winning the award as a sophomore, Kim went on to win the Nicklaus Award and compete on the victorious 2013 Walker Cup team alongside Justin Thomas and Max Homa, both of whom he was ranked higher than.

Since then, Kim’s career has seen plenty of ups and down. However, he has won a PGA Tour event. Michael dominated the 2018 John Deere Classic, getting to -27, proving that he can keep pace in a birdie-fest.

After struggling and making his way back to the PGA Tour, the former college star has begun to show glimpses of what made him such a promising young player. He finished seventh last week at the Wells Fargo Championship and gained 7.2 strokes ball striking, which is the most he’s gained in his career.

The now-Texas native has worked incredibly hard to get back to his current form, and he has a chance to remind the golf world who he is this week in McKinney.


Sam Stevens +9000 (BetRivers)

Sam Stevens is a Fort Worth, Texas native who’s played some great golf recently in his home state. The 25-year-old finished 2nd at the Valero Texas Open last month, and his statistics in the event were impressive. He gained 8.6 strokes on approach, which ranked 2nd in the field behind only the winner, Corey Conners. He also gained 5.9 strokes putting, which ranked 4th in the field.

The former Oklahoma State product absolutely crushes the ball, averaging 314 yards off the tee. TPC Craig Ranch isn’t a short course, and while distance isn’t a requirement, it’s an advantage.

Texas familiarity and strong form make Stevens a solid bet this far down the odds board.

Austin Smotherman +25000 (PointsBet)

Austin Smotherman has been up and down during the 2023 season but had his best start on the PGA Tour a few weeks ago at the Mexico Open. The Dallas resident raced out to the first-round lead at Vidanta by shooting -8, showing he can go low at an easier course on Tour. He gained 6.3 strokes on approach that week, which was the best performance of his career thus far.

Getting into contention recently combined with the fact that he’ll be comfortable playing in the state of Texas is enough reason to take a flier on the former SMU standout.


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