2023 Mexico Open Picks, Predictions & Odds: Major Champion Gary Woodland Can Contend With Jon Rahm

2023 Mexico Open Picks, Predictions & Odds: Major Champion Gary Woodland Can Contend With Jon Rahm article feature image

Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images. Pictured: Gary Woodland.

Click arrow to expand 2023 Mexico Open at Vidanta odds via BetMGM
Jon Rahm+250
Tony Finau+750
Wyndham Clark+1800
Gary Woodland+2500
Nicolai Hojgaard+2800
Patrick Rodgers+2800
Byeong Hun An+3500
Beau Hossler+4000
Maverick McNealy+4000
Stephan Jaeger+4000
Aaron Rai+4500
Alex Noren+4500
Emiliano Grillo+5000
S.H. Kim+5000
Taylor Pendrith+5000
Ben Martin+5500
Alex Smalley+5500
Brandon Wu+5500
Joseph Bramlett+6000
Robby Shelton+6000
Andrew Putnam+6600
Lee Hodges+6600
Luke List+6600
Matt Wallace+6600
Will Gordon+6600
Garrick Higgo+6600
Harry Hall+6600
Chez Reavie+8000
David Lipsky+8000
Lanto Griffin+8000
M.J. Daffue+8000
Mark Hubbard+8000
Patton Kizzire+8000
Dylan Wu+9000
Nate Lashley+9000
Akshay Bhatia+10000
Andrew Novak+10000
Charley Hoffman+10000
Eric Cole+10000
Michael Kim+10000
Vincent Norrman+10000
Austin Eckroat+12500
Cameron Champ+12500
Doug Ghim+12500
Erik van Rooyen+12500
Francesco Molinari+12500
Greyson Sigg+12500
Henrik Norlander+12500
Jimmy Walker+12500
Kevin Streelman+12500
Peter Malnati+12500
Adam Long+15000
Alejandro Tosti+15000
Augusto Nunez+15000
Dylan Frittelli+15000
Harry Higgs+15000
Kevin Chappell+15000
Matthias Schwab+15000
Ryan Gerard+15000
Scott Piercy+15000
Sean O'Hair+15000
Aaron Baddeley+17500
Ben Taylor+17500
Brent Grant+17500
Carl Yuan+17500
Doc Redman+17500
Lucas Glover+17500
Martin Trainer+17500
Matti Schmid+17500
Austin Smotherman+20000
Brandon Matthews+20000
Brice Garnett+20000
Callum Tarren+20000
Cameron Percy+20000
Carson Young+20000
Hank Lebioda+20000
Kevin Tway+20000
Nico Echavarria+20000
Tano Goya+20000
Seung-Yul Noh+22500
Chris Stroud+25000
Cody Gribble+25000
James Hahn+25000
Martin Laird+25000
Satoshi Kodaira+25000
Zecheng Dou+25000
Austin Cook+30000
Jonathan Byrd+30000
Kevin Roy+30000
Paul Haley+30000
Ryan Armour+30000
Ryan Moore+30000
Grayson Murray+35000
Harrison Endycott+35000
Michael Gligic+35000
Trevor Werbylo+35000
Tyson Alexander+35000
Bill Haas+40000
Cristobal Del Solar+40000
Fabian Gomez+40000
Kelly Kraft+40000
Kyle Westmoreland+40000
Scott Harrington+40000
Alvaro Ortiz+50000
Brian Stuard+50000
Camilo Villegas+50000
D.J. Trahan+50000
Geoff Ogilvy+50000
Jose De Jesus Rodriguez+50000
Mateo Fernandez de Oliveira+50000
Max McGreevy+50000
Richy Werenski+50000
Ricky Barnes+50000
Scott Brown+50000
Sung Kang+50000
Trevor Cone+50000
Wesley Bryan+50000
William McGirt+50000
Kyle Reifers+60000
Derek Ernst+75000
Derek Lamely+75000
Greg Chalmers+75000
Jonas Blixt+75000
Kyle Stanley+75000
Nick Watney+75000
R. Pereda+75000
Sebastian Vazquez+75000
Arjun Atwal+100000
Ben Crane+100000
Boo Weekley+100000
Brian Davis+100000
D.A. Points+100000
George McNeill+100000
J. B. Holmes+100000
Jose Cristobal Islas+100000
Kevin Stadler+100000
Omar Morales+100000
R. Lebrija+100000
S. Jurgensen+100000
Richard S. Johnson+100000
Ted Potter Jr+100000
Tommy Gainey+100000
Zach Bauchou+200000

The Zurich Classic churned up a bit of unexpected drama on Sunday as several teams were in the mix down the stretch, but Davis Riley closed that door from off the green at the par-3 17th, as he holed the birdie with his putter to put his team two shots ahead of the field.

He and partner Nick Hardy both captured their first Tour wins, which is a big accomplishment for the two players who have shown flashes of promise in their young careers. Both will look to carry that momentum into the Mexico Open, where everyone will be trying to beat defending champion and heavy favorite Jon Rahm.

Rahm will come into the week at a nearly unprecedented number for a full-field event with DraftKings listing him at just +280. He used this tournament as a get-right, breakthrough spot in 2022, but he doesn't have issues coming into this week.

Rahm is very clearly at the top of his game, dominating many events throughout much of 2023, with only a stomach bug at The Players really slowing him down. He captured his first green jacket just a few weeks back and now is teeing it up against a field that features just eight of the top 100 players in the world and just one other top-20 player in Tony Finau.

The good news is that everyone else gets better odds when a player like Rahm is such a strong favorite. I'll be looking for ways to try to beat the World No. 1. I just don't think the Rahm number is worth consideration on its own.

Let's see who has the potential to take him down.

Early Bets for Mexico Open

Gary Woodland +3200 (FanDuel)

The first number that stands out to me right here is Gary Woodland, who has been playing much better golf since the start of 2023 — even if the top results aren't quite there for him.

It just seems that one metric is letting him down and keeping him from contending. Last time out, it was his play around the greens, where he lost 4.8 strokes to the field at the RBC Heritage to erase 4.4 strokes gained on ball striking and four more on the greens.

He's lost more than five shots with the putter in three separate events this year, including seven strokes lost on the greens at The Players, where he gained 8.2 strokes tee to green.

Overall, his ball striking has been really strong and elite at times. This is a course where he'll be firing driver off the tee to some fairly forgiving landing zones and should have plenty of opportunity to put himself in position for success with the short game.

If he can finally pair his game on and around the greens with the ball striking he has shown this year, the Mexico Open could be a great chance for him to capture his first win since the 2019 U.S. Open.

Garrick Higgo +6500 (FanDuel)

This field falls off in a hurry, so we'll be looking for the players who we know have the talent to contend but maybe aren't quite there yet, as was the case when Kurt Kitayama battled Rahm down the stretch last year.

That player for me this year is Garrick Higgo, who is someone I look to target on easier courses that will set up to play as more of a birdie-fest. Higgo earned a PGA Tour win during the COVID-19 season at the initial Palmetto Championship, as he posted a solid number on Sunday while everyone behind him struggled to get home.

This is a big course where Higgo can take advantage of his length off the tee, which will set up to suit his game much better than his last time out on a plodding course like he saw at the RBC Heritage.

The key for the South Africa native this week will be to pair it all together with one of the spike weeks he can put together on approach and on the greens.

This number bakes in some of those unknowns, but in this field, he's a name that sticks out with some potential as a longshot play.

Pick: Garrick Higgo +6500

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Cameron Champ +11000 (DraftKings)

You may be catching onto a theme here.

I'm buying into a bit of a bomber narrative, as we saw some big hitters at the top of the leaderboard on the first trip through this course last year. There are some opportunities to use length to access holes, especially around the driveable par-4 7th and the four par-5s, with three of those coming on the back nine.

Despite the start to my card, I don't think massive length off the tee is required, but players will need to gain strokes on the field in that metric, just as all of the top-12 players did last year. One of those players was Cameron Champ, who posted a T6 finish, which ended up as his best result of the season.

We have seen a lot of volatility over Champ's career, and in many years, it was a number of missed cuts and also a victory. He broke that streak last season, but we know he has the talent to contend when he's at the top of his game.

Champ is coming into this week off of a big stretch of missed cuts, which is really the reason for such a big number in a weak field. I'm hoping this will be one of the weeks we see his game turn around on a course that should fit his play. And after a top-10 finish last year, he should have some confidence.

He has the skills to have a better number in a tournament like this, so  I'll take a shot he can find it this week at +11000.

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