2023 Mexico Open Picks, Predictions & Odds: Major Champion Gary Woodland Can Contend With Jon Rahm

The Zurich Classic churned up a bit of unexpected drama on Sunday as several teams were in the mix down the stretch, but Davis Riley closed that door from off the green at the par-3 17th, as he holed the birdie with his putter to put his team two shots ahead of the field.

He and partner Nick Hardy both captured their first Tour wins, which is a big accomplishment for the two players who have shown flashes of promise in their young careers. Both will look to carry that momentum into the Mexico Open, where everyone will be trying to beat defending champion and heavy favorite Jon Rahm.

Rahm will come into the week at a nearly unprecedented number for a full-field event with DraftKings listing him at just +280. He used this tournament as a get-right, breakthrough spot in 2022, but he doesn't have issues coming into this week.

Rahm is very clearly at the top of his game, dominating many events throughout much of 2023, with only a stomach bug at The Players really slowing him down. He captured his first green jacket just a few weeks back and now is teeing it up against a field that features just eight of the top 100 players in the world and just one other top-20 player in Tony Finau.

The good news is that everyone else gets better odds when a player like Rahm is such a strong favorite. I'll be looking for ways to try to beat the World No. 1. I just don't think the Rahm number is worth consideration on its own.

Let's see who has the potential to take him down.

Early Bets for Mexico Open

Gary Woodland +3200 (FanDuel)

The first number that stands out to me right here is Gary Woodland, who has been playing much better golf since the start of 2023 — even if the top results aren't quite there for him.

It just seems that one metric is letting him down and keeping him from contending. Last time out, it was his play around the greens, where he lost 4.8 strokes to the field at the RBC Heritage to erase 4.4 strokes gained on ball striking and four more on the greens.

He's lost more than five shots with the putter in three separate events this year, including seven strokes lost on the greens at The Players, where he gained 8.2 strokes tee to green.

Overall, his ball striking has been really strong and elite at times. This is a course where he'll be firing driver off the tee to some fairly forgiving landing zones and should have plenty of opportunity to put himself in position for success with the short game.

If he can finally pair his game on and around the greens with the ball striking he has shown this year, the Mexico Open could be a great chance for him to capture his first win since the 2019 U.S. Open.

Pick: Gary Woodland +3200

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Garrick Higgo +6500 (FanDuel)

This field falls off in a hurry, so we'll be looking for the players who we know have the talent to contend but maybe aren't quite there yet, as was the case when Kurt Kitayama battled Rahm down the stretch last year.

That player for me this year is Garrick Higgo, who is someone I look to target on easier courses that will set up to play as more of a birdie-fest. Higgo earned a PGA Tour win during the COVID-19 season at the initial Palmetto Championship, as he posted a solid number on Sunday while everyone behind him struggled to get home.

This is a big course where Higgo can take advantage of his length off the tee, which will set up to suit his game much better than his last time out on a plodding course like he saw at the RBC Heritage.

The key for the South Africa native this week will be to pair it all together with one of the spike weeks he can put together on approach and on the greens.

This number bakes in some of those unknowns, but in this field, he's a name that sticks out with some potential as a longshot play.

Pick: Garrick Higgo +6500

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Cameron Champ +11000 (DraftKings)

You may be catching onto a theme here.

I'm buying into a bit of a bomber narrative, as we saw some big hitters at the top of the leaderboard on the first trip through this course last year. There are some opportunities to use length to access holes, especially around the driveable par-4 7th and the four par-5s, with three of those coming on the back nine.

Despite the start to my card, I don't think massive length off the tee is required, but players will need to gain strokes on the field in that metric, just as all of the top-12 players did last year. One of those players was Cameron Champ, who posted a T6 finish, which ended up as his best result of the season.

We have seen a lot of volatility over Champ's career, and in many years, it was a number of missed cuts and also a victory. He broke that streak last season, but we know he has the talent to contend when he's at the top of his game.

Champ is coming into this week off of a big stretch of missed cuts, which is really the reason for such a big number in a weak field. I'm hoping this will be one of the weeks we see his game turn around on a course that should fit his play. And after a top-10 finish last year, he should have some confidence.

He has the skills to have a better number in a tournament like this, so  I'll take a shot he can find it this week at +11000.