2023 PGA Championship Odds: Breaking Down the Board at Oak Hill
Andrew Redington/Getty Images. Pictured: Jon Rahm.
We’re two weeks away from golf’s second major of 2023. PGA Championship odds are no doubt going to shift between now and then, but there are a few things that stood out as I looked at FanDuel‘s offerings.
Here are my early observations, as of Tuesday night.
The 3 Favorites
With the PGA Tour’s elevated events this year, we’ve seen Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy compete in the same tournament five times. Every time, the odds board looks the same — the trio is significantly ahead of the rest of the pack.
For the Masters, it was a bit of a surprise to see Rahm consistently behind Scheffler and McIlroy on the odds board. The Spaniard had already won twice and was in fine form. Scheffler definitely belongs up there, although it’s worth noting he shockingly missed the cut at this major last year.
McIlroy is the one with some significant question marks.
The Northern Irishman is the betting favorite at this week’s Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow. This is a tournament he has won three times (2010, ’15 and ’21), so maybe it’s a chance for him to get in form before the PGA Championship.
McIlroy has made six starts in the United States this year, and here are the results: T32, T29, T2, MC, 3, MC. The third-place finish came at the Match Play, and the missed cuts came at The Players Championship and the Masters. That means McIlroy enters the Wells Fargo coming up on two months since he last made a cut at a stroke-play event.
Rahm has been most active and consistently near the top of the leaderboard. He has four wins, six top-five finishes and seven in the top 10 this year. Scheffler is no slouch, though. His worst finish in nine stroke-play starts this year is T12, although he does have one fewer win than Rahm.
Pick: Jon Rahm +750
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Pick: Scottie Scheffler +850
A Noteworthy Dropoff
When looking at FanDuel’s odds board, something struck me as unusual.
There are 20 players at +3600 or lower to lift the Wanamaker Trophy. After that, Hideki Matsuyama is +4600, Tom Kim is +5500, then we shoot all the way up to a group of seven players at +7500.
The group of 20 features players who have won major championships or have been in good form on the PGA Tour this year. FanDuel clearly believes there is not just a trio at the top, but 20 golfers (22 if you count Matsuyama and Kim) who have separated themselves as serious contenders.
One note about that top 20: Shane Lowry is +3600 for the PGA Championship, but he’s +6600 at the Wells Fargo Championship. Something seems off there.
LIV Golf’s Odds
The PGA Tour’s nightmare would be a player currently playing for LIV Golf winning a major championship.
According to FanDuel, Brooks Koepka is the biggest threat. Koepka, of course, was in the final group at the Masters before faltering down the stretch. He’s +2100 to win this tournament for a third time, tied with Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth as the fifth favorites.
2023 Open Championship winner Cameron Smith is +3200, but his form in LIV Golf events hasn’t been very impressive. The same could be said for Dustin Johnson, who’s +3600.
The aforementioned group at +7500 features Patrick Reed, Joaquin Niemann and Talor Gooch, who might be the hottest golfer in the world right now. Gooch has won back-to-back LIV Golf events in consecutive weeks, first in Adelaide and then in Singapore.
Bryson DeChambeau, whose struggles make Smith and Johnson look like they’re in the form of their lives, is +9000, while Louis Oosthuizen, Paul Casey, Mito Pereira and Abraham Ancer are +12000.
Pick: Brooks Koepka +2100
Pick: Talor Gooch +7500
Golf’s Two Favorite Sons
For some reason, as of Tuesday, May 2 at 10:30 p.m. ET, FanDuel didn’t have Phil Mickelson listed on its odds board for the PGA Championship. Lefty is presumably going to tee it up at Oak Hill, though.
DraftKings has Mickelson at +13000, a number that is no doubt much lower thanks to his performance at the Masters. Mickelson was struggling in LIV Golf events throughout the new tour’s short history, so there was no reason to believe he’d contend at Augusta National.
Naturally, Mickelson finished in a tie for second.
FanDuel does have a number for Tiger Woods, who’s +16000 to win another Wanamaker Trophy. At DraftKings, they’re playing it safe and have Woods listed at a shocking +6500!
Pick: Tiger Woods +16000
Woods bowed out of the Masters after suffering an ankle injury that required surgery, and there’s no timetable for his return. Whether he tees it up at the PGA Championship is up in the air. If you’ve already bet +6500, I don’t know what to tell you.
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