2023 RBC Canadian Open Round 4 Odds & Picks: Justin Rose in Position to Contend

2023 RBC Canadian Open Round 4 Odds & Picks: Justin Rose in Position to Contend article feature image

Pictured: Justin Rose. (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images)

There were some low rounds available Saturday at the RBC Canadian Open and Nick Taylor, one of the local favorites, charged from just inside the cutline to the top of the leaderboard early in the day. His 9-under round is the best of the week and put him just two shots back C.T. Pan.

Pan heads into Sunday as the solo leader, but has a number of big name players, including Rory McIlroy and final round playing partner Tommy Fleetwood, looking to chase him down.

Saturday played as the easiest day this week. The remaining field shot better than a half stroke under par with a strong number of those near the top posting rounds of 5-under or better. It seemed as if a number of players figured out the greens and were able to hole a lot more putts. Fleetwood gained 4.46 shots on the greens and had just 24 total putts. In fact, this tournament has shaped up to be a bit of a putting contest as the top of the leaderboard is littered with top putters.

However, none of the seven players at T2 or better are within the top six this week in SG: Tee-to-Green or SG: Ball Striking. Typically, those categories lead us to the top players in the field, but that's flipped this week, making for a pretty unpredictable Sunday.

I typically lean on the ball striking and tee-to-green play to shape my picks with the hopes that the putter will follow suit. This week, I'll be looking for some players who are putting well and hoping they can do enough tee-to-green to be in the mix down the back stretch.

Strokes Gained Explanation

Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer has truly played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it collects, the Tour calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field. Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation. In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:
  • Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
  • Strokes Gained: Approach
  • Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
  • Strokes Gained: Putting
  • Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
In general, SG: Ball Striking and SG: Tee-to-Green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility. You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but are just not getting putts to drop. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.

2023 RBC Canadian Open Final Round Best Bets: 3 Golfers to Buy

Justin Rose catches my eye as the player with the best trends going into Sunday. We've already seen him get over the hump and win this year with a final round where he simply closed the door on the rest of the competition at Pebble Beach. I wouldn't be surprised to see Rose do it again on Sunday in Canada, especially after the back nine he put together Saturday.

Rose started his third round in ugly fashion with two bogeys in his first seven holes, but completely turned things around with six birdies across his closing seven. I expect he can continue to carry that momentum into Sunday and am picking him to win. I will not pretend as though we are getting good, or even fair, odds at +500, but Rose is still the guy I'm backing to take home a win before next week's US Open.

There are certain times where everything seems to come together on the greens for Corey Conners. He has flashes where we realize how much he could win on this stage with his ball striking if the putter would cooperate just enough. I know he will need more than that on the greens Sunday at the RBC Canadian Open, but something is telling me the Canadian might just have one of those days.

Conners is four shots back of the lead, but just two back of the bunch at 12-under. If Pan comes back to the crowd a bit early on, especially with the pressure from being in the final group, it will really open up this championship to a number of players. Conners is one of the guys who could walk through that door on Sunday and at +2500, he's one of the long shots I'm eyeing.

Looking down the board for a placement play, I'm going back to my pretournament pick of Shane Lowry. He's been just what I wanted for much of the week, gaining strokes in all metrics, but just can't get out of his own way. Lowry keeps making the big mistake, posting double bogeys in each of his first two rounds, and then recording consecutive squares in Round 3. I'm expecting those errors to stop Sunday, and if they do, he'll climb up the leaderboard. I like Lowry at +140 to finish inside the top 20.

Strokes Gained Data for All Players After Round 3

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