2023 Wells Fargo Championship Final Round Odds & Picks: Wyndham Clark Poised for Breakthrough Win
Pictured: Wyndham Clark. (Photo by Jason Allen/ISI Photos/Getty Images).
The third round of the Wells Fargo Championship saw the best scoring opportunities of the week as the field played Quail Hollow to an under par average on Saturday. The two players that took advantage most of those scoring opportunities were Wyndham Clark and Xander Schauffele and their 8- and 7-under rounds put them three clear of the rest of the field going into Sunday.
Clark will start the final round with a two-shot advantage over Schauffele in what sets up to be a likely two-man battle in the final round. Not since 2012 has a winner on this course come from more than two shots back to take the title, and Schauffele is the only player in that category entering Sunday.
The betting opportunities, outside of the top two, will be plentiful in the final round as 15 players are within three shots of third place — the battle for a top-five result will be a fight to the very end. Let’s see who stands out for the win and who has a great chance at a top-five finish on the final day from Quail Hollow.
Strokes Gained Explanation
Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer has truly played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field.
Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.
In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
In general, SG: Ball Striking and SG: Tee-to-Green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.
You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but are just not getting putts to drop. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.
3 Golfers to Buy for Round 4 of the Wells Fargo Championship
I came into this article fully expecting to write up Schauffele as the winner of the Wells Fargo Championship, but upon further review, I just can’t go against Clark. He has simply been great this week, especially on approach, where he has gained more than six shots on the field through the first three rounds. He’s improved in that category each day and there’s no reason to expect him to slow down now. I don’t expect him to gain three shots on the greens again, but his closest competitor is set for some regression. I will be clear in that I’m not planning to put a bet down on Clark at even money to capture his first TOUR win as I think the opportunity to do so has passed, but he is my pick to win.
Viktor Hovland was a popular pick to win coming into the week, but he got out of the gates slow, which kept him from getting his name in the mix, even with a solid 5-under round Saturday. He sits T16 going into the final round and I think we’ll see him continue to build on that momentum Sunday.
My play on the Norwegian will be for a top-10 finish and while I like the odds available at +175 (BetRivers), I will wait to see if BetMGM rolls something out before play starts. The congested board beyond the leaders will make the paying of ties in full even more valuable for our placement bets. Hovland is just one shot from that position as things stand and if he can keep his play going, he’ll certainly be in position for that type of finish and may be able to threaten a top-5 result as well.
There doesn’t need to be much there for me to find a reason to make a play on fellow Gamecock Matthew NeSmith, but he is giving me quite a bit to work with this week. He is the only player ahead of Clark in SG: Tee-to-Green as he has gained more than 10 shots on this elite field in that category. NeSmith’s ball striking has led the way as he’s gained better than two shots in that category per round, and that’s with losing strokes on approach on Friday. He’s in the T20 position, but if he continues to play the way he is, he will climb the leaderboard, which makes for a solid top-20 pick (+190) at DraftKings.
Pick: Wyndham Clark +160
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Strokes Gained Data for All Players After Round 3
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