AT&T Byron Nelson Picks and Odds: Final Round Best Bets

AT&T Byron Nelson Picks and Odds: Final Round Best Bets article feature image

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Pictured: Hideki Matsuyama

As we head into the final round of the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson, the tournament is up for grabs. First-round leader Sebastian Munoz (+260) is in the lead at -21, but Jordan Spieth sits just one shot behind him and is now the favorite at +195 on DraftKings. Joaquin Niemann (+450) and Justin Thomas (+550) are the big names lurking and are also the only other golfers currently under 20-1 to win the tournament.

In my both my pre-tournament preview and my third-round preview, I expressed confidence that Spieth would win the event and there's no reason to back off of that now. Spieth looks incredibly comfortable in his home state of Texas and the statistics back that up. This week, the 28-year-old ranks third in the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 11th in Strokes Gained: Approach, third in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and 16th in Strokes Gained: Putting. He's put on a fantastic performance in all facets of the game and I'd be extremely surprised if he wasn't there at the end on Sunday.

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Round 4 Best Bets

Round 4 Matchup: Jordan Spieth (-125) over Joaquin Niemann (DraftKings)

We bet this in round three and it paid off. I have no issues going right back to the same bet in round four. I expect Jordan Spieth to win the tournament and to do so he will have to hold off Joaquin Niemann, who is one shot behind him.

Niemann has had a great week, but Spieth has been more consistent from tee to green. Throughout the first three rounds Spieth has outgained Niemann in Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. Niemann has outperformed Spieth in Strokes Gained: Putting, but I don't expect that to continue Sunday. Spieth hasn't had his best putting season, but he's a better putter than the Chilean.

Round 4 Matchup: Hideki Matsuyama (+100) over Dustin Johnson (DraftKings)

Hideki Matsuyama has put together an excellent week. He had an average day Saturday, but did nothing to give me any cause for concern heading into round four. Matsuyama ranks second in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and has really looked like vintage 'Deki for the better part of three rounds. The Japanese star had what I believe to be an outlier day on Saturday, losing 2.0 strokes around the greens. He's typically one of the best around the green players on TOUR, so it's a safe bet we will see some positive regression Sunday.

Dustin Johnson gained 1.7 strokes around the green Saturday and was just above average everywhere else. He has looked great at times this week, but hasn't been all that consistent. He hasn't played much golf in the past few months and this feels like Johnson is using the week as a tune-up for next week's PGA Championship.

I'll take Matsuyama, who seems to be more motivated and in better current form.

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