Branden Grace a High-Floor, Low-Upside Bet at U.S. Open

Jun 11, 2018 2:12 PM EDT

For analysis of the top 85 golfers in the field, check out this page. “Best odds value” and “Best matchup value” listed below are determined by a proprietary model built by Colin Davy. It factors in the course, plus a variety of weighted metrics.


The Info: Branden Grace

DFS Pricing: $8,400 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel

U.S. Open History (2013-2017): MC, N/A, T-4, T-5, T-50

Odds: +3300 to win, +330 top-10 finish, +175 top-20 finish, -400 to make cut, +275 to miss cut

Best Odds Value: +275 to miss cut

Best Matchup Value: Branden Grace (-120) over Bryson DeChambeau

Tee Times: 7:40 a.m. (Thursday); 1:25 p.m. (Friday)

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The Outlook

One of the most consistent players on the PGA Tour, Grace enters the U.S. Open having made 12 of 12 cuts this year. His game does not possess any real weaknesses but doesn’t include any major advantages either. He ranks a very respectable 38th in total driving; he’s 32nd in GIR percentage. These are both very important stats this week, as ball-striking will be at the biggest premium we see all year. His game is suited to have a solid showing, as he rarely puts himself in big trouble, but he lacks the firepower to truly contend. A solid top-25 bet may be the way to go here.


The Metrics

Here’s how Grace ranks in the U.S. Open field in several key metrics. For many more, be sure to check out the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

  • Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: T-25th
  • Recent Adjusted Round Score: T-19th
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 38th
  • Long-Term Driving Distance: 80th
  • Strokes Gained: Approach: 47th

Want more U.S. Open coverage? Check out this page for tips on the 85 best golfers in the field.

Credit:

Michael Madrid-USA TODAY Sports. Captioned: Branden Grace

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