Shiners Children’s Open Updated Odds & Expert Picks: Bet Emiliano Grillo & Thomas Detry in Las Vegas

We had a couple players reach the top of the leaderboard last week for a short period of time with Thomas Detry and Dean Burmester, but neither really stayed there for long.

Now, we're off to Las Vegas for one of the familiar events of the fall swing with the Shriners Children's Open.

The Course

TPC Summerlin hosts the event, which is a pretty familiar stop for the TOUR during the fall swing. It’s a relatively easy course, measuring at 7,255 yards for a par-71 layout. Outside of the 2017 edition, when the winds picked up and 9-under par won in a playoff, the champion usually gets to around 20 strokes under par.

The top players are tough to beat on this course. Sungjae Im, Bryson DeChambeau, Patrick Cantlay and Webb Simpson have won here fairly recently as players near the top of the board. However, without much trouble to test the players from tee to green, this can turn into a bit of a putting contest, and we’ll see the odd longshot triumph, like when Rod Pampling held off Brooks Koepka in 2016.

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The Favorites

Patrick Cantlay opens as the clear favorite here at +600 as this has been one of his best courses over his career. He's notched a win and two runner-up finishes in four starts. He's also coming off some strong results in the Presidents Cup, so the game should be in solid shape. With his form and history, it's going to be a difficult week for someone to knock him off.

Sungjae Im is next in line at +1400 as the defending champion. He's also got two other top-15 finishes to go with the win in three starts. Like Cantlay, he's another strong player with great results and great form who's going to have me limiting my card this week.

Max Homa, Tom Kim and Aaron Wise close out this tier in the +2000s. Like most fields in the fall, it's not deep here at the top, but the guys that have shown up are all riding some good play entering the week. Homa hasn't really done much in Vegas in the past with a string of four straight missed cuts, so I'd steer clear of him, but Kim and Wise are both likely to be good fits.

The Midtier

We'll open the week with Emiliano Grillo at +5000 on DraftKings. Grillo was fifth last week and had a great week off the tee and with the irons. The putter even cooperated for large portions of the event as well. One late mistake ended up being too much to overcome, but he's playing well heading into this event.

I'm going back to Thomas Detry here at +6600 on BetRivers. It was a decent week for him in Jackson. He was tied for the 36-hole lead, but the weekend didn't go his way as he slipped to ninth. The form remains solid, which was why I went to him last week. The ball striking took a dip on the week, but he still gained ground on the field in all four categories.

I'll also go with Matthew NeSmith at +8000 on DraftKings. NeSmith closed the Sanderson Farms with a 64 and gained a little over four strokes on approach that round. Now, he's going to a course that has been kind to him so far early in his career as he's never finished worse than 18th in three starts at Summerlin. So I'll take a chance here that he figured something out on Sunday and can carry that into a course that has fit him so far.

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The Longshots

I'll throw out a few darts here since this course tends to favor stars or longshots.

We'll start with Callum Tarren at 150/1 on DraftKings. Tarren was 13th last week at the Sanderson and has played fairly well in these lower tier events dating back to the middle of the summer. He had a solid ball striking week and tends to putt at least around the field average when he's not on poa, so this could be a good spot for him to pop up.

We'll close here with Kevin Yu at 350/1 on Bet365. Yu has had a couple of good weeks from tee to green to start his rookie season. He's also used to playing golf in the desert, coming from Arizona State. The driver has been pretty good for him dating back to the Korn Ferry season. It's been about the rest of his game catching up. So far, the irons seem to be in decent shape, and the short game saw a decent tick upward to around the field average at the Sanderson.

The Shriners Card

• Emiliano Grillo +5000 (.66 units)
• Thomas Detry +6600 (.5 units)
• Matthew NeSmith +8000 (.41 units)
• Callum Tarren +15000 (.22 units)
• Kevin Yu +35000 (.09 units)

Total Stake: 1.88 units

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