Zerillo’s Horse Racing Picks for Saturday: Multi-Race Wager Card & Win Bets at Gulfstream Park & Oaklawn Park (April 11)
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Saturday’s racing features the late Pick 4 sequence at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas, including the Oaklawn Mile (Race 9 at 5:43 p.m.) and Oaklawn Stakes (Race 11 at 6:48 p.m. ET).
However, I’m also going to attack the early card Oaklawn (2:08 p.m. ET), in addition to the Middle Pick 4 at Gulfstream Park (2:52 p.m. ET), where there are some horses we can key on for win wagers and multi-race tickets
Instead of breaking down the entire card at each track, I’m going to sort this article by track and bet type, beginning with the post time when that wager starts.
Let’s get to it.
Race 6 (Pick 3, Pick 4)
Time: 2:52 p.m. ET
There are a couple of horses that I like as singles in the middle Pick 4, but we’ll begin with the No. 7 Dark Web (4-1) and No. 13 Ima Pharoah (6-1) in Race 6.
The former is tied for the highest last-out speed figure, and he likes to be near the lead in a race without a ton of pace. The latter is a son of American Pharoah, who should continue to improve in his second start after a sharp debut for trainer Todd Pletcher.
- Pick 3: (7, 13 / 7 / 1)
- Pick 4: (7, 13 / 7 / 1 / 4, 7)
Race 7 (Daily Double, Pick 3)
Time: 3:22 p.m. ET
The win bets that I like in this sequence include the No. 7 Derby Champagne (3-1) in Race 7 and No. 1 Per Capita (9-5) in Race 8 — the only two horses in their respective races to achieve Beyer-speed figures higher than 80. You can bet them to win, use them to continue the Pick 4, pair them in a Daily Double, or single them to start a Pick 3.
We can close that Pick 3, and the Pick 4 from Race 6 with the No. 4 Young Raymond (6-1) and No. 7 Zanno (9-2) – who has been working extremely well ahead of his three-year-old debut.
- Daily Double: (7 / 1)
- Pick 3: (7 / 1 / 4, 7)
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Race 2 (Daily Double, Pick 3)
Time: 2:08 p.m. ET
The No. 8 Miss Imperial (3-1) is favored for trainer Brad Cox, having won her past two starts against better competition.
The question is whether the other speed in this race wears her down with jockey Florent Geroux likely looking to press the pace.
- Daily Double: (8 / 8)
- Pick 3: (8 / 8 / 2, 5)
Race 3 (Daily Double, Pick 3)
Time: 2:39 p.m. ET
The No. 8 Skol Factor (2-1) ran a big 83 Beyer-speed figure in his debut and is coming off of a bullet work on April 20. This is one of my favorite win bets of the day and much the horse to beat in this maiden special weight.
In Race 4, the only two horses to crack 90 in terms of speed figures are the No. 2 Shooters Shoot (7-2) and No. 5 Blackberry Wine (3-1), which limits the selection pool.
And in Race 5, I have another favorite win bet in the No. 12 Cynical Girl (9-2), who should lay over this field if she runs back to her 83 Beyer-figure from February when she remained game after carving out blistering fractions.
- Daily Double: (8 / 2, 5)
- Pick 3: (8 / 2, 5 / 12)
Race 8 (Pick 5)
Time: 5:12 p.m. ET
This is a hazardous Pick 5 sequence, so we’re not going to go too deep in any one race except for Race 10 – which is an absolute minefield.
We’ll start off with two selections in the No. 3 Mo Gotcha (4-1) and No. 9 Proverb (9-2). Proverb ran ok in his first start off of a layoff, but should move forward this time out and won’t have to deal with the slop as he did that day. Mo Gotcha will remove the blinkers and shorten up in distance, and he should be able to work out a trip to put himself into contention.
- Pick 5: 3,9 / 3 / 4,7,8,9,10,12 / 1,4 / 6,10
Race 9 (Pick 4)
Time: 5:43 p.m. ET
The mile might be short for the No. 3 Tom’s d’Etat (3-1), but he’s the class of this field with six consecutive triple-digit Beyer figures. He’s a must use, and a likely single.
My alternatives are the No. 2 Mr. Money (4-1), who had an excellent three-year old season, but needs to crack triple digits for the first time coming off of a long layoff, and the No. 8 Bankit (15-1), who should appreciate the dry/fast conditions after getting the slop last time.
I’m against the No. 14 Improbable, a horse I’m a fan of, who drew incredibly poorly in post 14, which is rarely used posts. Posts 10-12 are 7 for 109 (6%) on dirt at the current Oaklawn meet.
The No. 11 Lord Guinness (30-1) looks like a sharp price horse for exotics.
I’ll use my B options to begin the Pick 4, but not on my Pick 5 ticket.
Race 10 is a headache. I had to spread. The No. 4 What a Country (8-1), No. 7 Oxide (5-1), No. 8 Urbanite (10-1), No. 9 Eddy Forever (9-2), No. 10 Dean Martin (7-2), and No. 12 Hunt the Front (6-1), are on all of my tickets. And I had a tough time leaving off slingshots No. 1 Prodigious Bay (20-1) and No. 6 Ugo (20-1).
As for Race 11, I have pretty clear A and B options. My “A” horses are Bob Baffert’s No. 4 Thousand Words (5-2) who gets a bit of class relief after a disappointing effort in the San Felipe behind his stablemate Authentic, and Steve Asmussen’s No. 1 Basin (7-2) who ran in the slop last time out in the Rebel fist off of the layoff. Basin is the lone Grade one winner in this race, and I’ll be betting him to win at 3-1 or better, expecting a move forward now that he’s back on a dry track.
My “B” option in Race 11 is the No. 8 Taishan (8-1), who I’ll be including in my Pick 4, but not in the Pick 5.
As for Race 12, I’m only going two deep with the favorites No. 10 Sonny Smack – with the highest last-out figure in the field (90) and two wins at this distance at the Oaklawn meet – and No. 6 Exulting – who is dropping down in class and has the highest figure (92) of any horse in this field over their past three starts; and one of just three to crack 90.
- Pick 4: 2,3,8 / 4,7,8,9,10,12 / 1,4,8 / 6,10
Favorite Win Bets for April 11
- Race 7: No. 7 Derby Champagne (3-1)
- Race 8: No. 1 Per Capita (9-5)
- Race 2: No. 8 Miss Imperial (3-1)
- Race 3: No. 8 Skol Factor (2-1)
- Race 5: No. 12 Cynical Girl (9-2)
- Race 9: No. 1 Basin (7-2)