The 152nd Run for the Roses takes place today, Saturday, May 2, and our horse racing experts have found plenty of value on the board.
Mike Conti and Sean Zerillo hopped on the latest edition of the Action Network Podcast to break down their Kentucky Derby best bets, and give their picks and predictions for today's card.
| Horse | Odds | Expert |
|---|---|---|
| Top Win Selection: #12 Chief Wallaby | 8-1 | Sean Zerillo |
| Top Win Selection: #9 The Puma | 10-1 | Mike Conti |
| Top Long Shot: #15 Emerging Markets | 15-1 | Sean Zerillo |
| Top Long Shot: #15 Emerging Markets | 15-1 | Mike Conti |
| Top Long Shot: #8 So Happy | 15-1 | Sean Zerillo |
| Top Long Shot: #19 Golden Tempo | 30-1 | Mike Conti |
Specific betting recommendations feature the preferred odds as of writing. Remember to always shop for the best price(s) available. | ||
Top Win Selection: Chief Wallaby (8-1)
My top selection is Chief Wallaby as I make his fair odds 4-1. There's actually a horse I have ahead of him, but I do think Chief Wallaby is the most talented horse in the field.
If there's a horse capable of winning the Triple Crown, I think it's Chief Wallaby. I’m choosing him as the highest upside horse in the field. He maybe got a little bit distracted in the lane last time, but in terms of eye-catching workouts over the past two weeks, nobody has apparently looked better.
Give me Chief Wallaby to etch his name in history at 8-1.
— Sean Zerillo
Top Win Selection: The Puma (10-1)
The Puma is my top selection.
He's run some really good races in the Tampa Bay Derby and the Florida Derby, which is very similar to Mage, who finished second in that Florida Derby and then came back to win the Kentucky Derby back in 2023. He is by Essential Quality and out of a Declaration of War mare, so he is clearly bred for the distance.
I really like The Puma's running style as he’s not going to be a deep closer or a stalker. I love horses that make big middle moves, and I think the Puma does exactly that.
— Mike Conti
Top Long Shot: Emerging Market (15-1)
Emerging Market has been one of the busiest horses all week.
If you're ever going to trust a trainer to get his horse set for the Kentucky Derby with just two lifetime starts, that trainer would probably be Chad Brown. Emerging Markets has been really sharp and very buzzy among sharp handicappers in workouts leading up to the race.
I make him about 13-1, but he's listed at 15-1. I think there is value on this horse if that number stays at around 15-1, as he has plenty of upside.
— Sean Zerillo
Top Long Shot: Emerging Market (15-1)
I like Emerging Markets for a lot of the same reasons. Yes, he's one of the more lightly raised horses — well, he's the most lightly raised horse in the field — but I also liked what I saw in that win in the Louisiana Derby, that was a tough, grinded-out win.
It should also be known that Flavien Prat knows how to ride horses and knows how to put his horses into a winning position. If there's a jockey that I'm going to trust in this situation, it is definitely Prat.
— Mike Conti
Top Long Shot: So Happy (15-1)
So Happy is also at 15-1, coming from the West Coast. Mike Smith is aboard, and this horse has gotten faster in every race. If there is a West Coast contender that can come in and beat the other horses, I think it is So Happy at 15-1.
However, I do consider him more of a B selection. I’ll be using So Happy, #8 underneath, and prefer his chances of winning to Emerging Markets.
— Sean Zerillo
Top Long Shot: Golden Tempo (30-1)
I’m not tossing Golden Tempo aside. I don't think he has a chance to win, but as we start talking about exotics — especially if we have the pace setup that I think we're going to get in this race — a deep closer is really interesting.
I'm also a big fan of horses that are coming out of Fairgrounds. I think that long stretch run at Fairgrounds is very similar to what they deal with in the Derby. So, someone like Golden Tempo, who can close into that fast pace, becomes appealing.
Do I think he can win? No. But do I think he could pick up a piece and be an interesting horse to maybe use underneath and in exotics at a big price? Yes.
— Mike Conti
Zerillo's Other Contenders
Primary Win Contenders (A-List):
#12 Chief Wallaby
#18 Further Ado (6-1)
#6 Commandment (6-1)
Secondary Contenders (B-List):
#9 The Puma
#1 Renegade (4-1)
Conti's Other Contenders
Primary Win Contenders (A-List):
#9 The Puma
#12 Chief Wallaby
Secondary Contenders (B-List):
#6 Commandment
#7 Dan and Bourbon (20-1)
#8 So Happy
#18 Further Ado
