Kentucky Derby 2026: Trends, Stats and What History Says About This Year's Field
Favorite is in the No. 1 post — time to break the trend?
It's been decades since the rail produced a winner, and the favorite hasn't cashed in seven years either, yet that's exactly where Renegade finds himself heading into Saturday. Coming off the NFL Draft buzz in Pittsburgh, the setup feels unique — but the Derby rarely plays out the way it looks on paper.
This year's field brings a mix of strong profiles and major historical red flags, setting up one of the more intriguing trend battles in recent runnings.
Horse-by-Horse Quick Analysis
Tier 1 — Hits Most Winning Trends
#1 Renegade (4-1) — Won Arkansas Derby last out, 5-2-2-1 lifetime, Pletcher. Top-3 last + won last = matches 90% historical winner profile.
#6 Commandment (6-1) — Won Florida Derby, 4-for-5 lifetime, top class rating in field (120), Brad Cox. Hits virtually every winning trend.
#8 So Happy (15-1) — Won SA Derby with field-best 107 last-race speed; best dirt speed of any starter.
#15 Emerging Market (15-1) — Won LA Derby, undefeated 2-for-2. Caveat: lightest-raced contender at just 2 starts; Chad Brown still 0-for-Derby.
#18 Further Ado (6-1) — Won Blue Grass G1, #1 Prime Power (149.7), Brad Cox, top Beyer (106) in field.
Tier 2 — Mixed Profiles
#2 Albus (30-1) — Won Wood, but only 91 last-race speed — well below contenders. A-letter (best historical trend, +4.3% above average).
#5 Right to Party (30-1) — 2nd in Wood (top-3 ✓), but did so at 38-1 (market skeptical).
#9 The Puma (10-1) — 2nd in Florida Derby (top-3 ✓). T-letter weak historically (4.2%).
#11 Incredibolt (20-1) — Won VA Derby (top-3 ✓), but skipped April preps and steps up significantly in class.
#12 Chief Wallabee (8-1) — 3rd in Florida Derby (top-3 ✓), Bill Mott. Only three lifetime starts (light experience).
#14 Potente (20-1) — 2nd in SA Derby (top-3 ✓), #5 Prime Power, Baffert. Failed as a favorite.
#16 Pavlovian (30-1) — 2nd in LA Derby at 21-1 (top-3 ✓). GRAY (0 winners since 2005).
#19 Golden Tempo (30-1) — 3rd in LA Derby (top-3 ✓). Modest figures.
#20 Fulleffort (20-1) — Won Jeff Ruby, but on synthetic — never raced on conventional dirt. GRAY (negative trend).
Tier 3 — Trend Headwinds
#3 Intrepido (50-1) — 4th in SA Derby; outside the top-3.
#4 Litmus Test (30-1) — 7th in Arkansas Derby, beaten 17+ lengths. Outside the top-3, declining form.
#21 Great White (50-1) — 5th in Blue Grass. GRAY GELDING — combined trend headwinds.
Tier 4 — International Shippers
#7 Danon Bourbon (20-1) — Japan, 3-for-3 undefeated. The foreign trend is brutal.
#10 Wonder Dean (30-1) — Japan-based, won the UAE Derby. UAE Derby winners 0-for-many in Kentucky.
#17 Six Speed (50-1) — UAE-based, 2nd in UAE Derby. Same trend headwind.
The Favorite Question
Renegade enters as the favorite at 4-1 odds. Favorites have won 56 of the previous 151 editions of the Kentucky Derby (37%), according to the official media guide, including six straight from 2013 to 2018.
But the favorite hasn't won since Justify in 2018 — seven straight losing years, the longest streak since the 20-year drought from 1980 to 1999.
Last seven favorites and how they finished:
- 2025 — Journalism (+342) — 2nd
- 2024 — Fierceness (+321) — 15th
- 2023 — Angel of Empire (+406) — 3rd
- 2022 — Epicenter (+410) — 2nd
- 2021 — Essential Quality (+290) — 3rd
- 2020 — Tiz The Law (-125) — 2nd
- 2019 — Improbable (+400) — 4th
Favorites by finish position since 1950 (88 races):
- Won: 21
- 2nd: 15
- 3rd: 10
- 4th: 4
- 5th: 6
- 6th-10th: 20
- 11th or worse: 10
- Scratch: 1
- DNF: 1
One more thing: the last seven Derby winners have all paid more than $17.96. Three straight winners (Sovereignty, Mystik Dan, Mage) have been double-digit-odds shippers. So, Renegade's win would break a recent trend.
Post Position Trends
Winning the Derby from either of the first two post positions isn't easy. No horse has won from post 1 since Ferdinand in 1986, and post 2 has gone winless since Affirmed in 1978. Renegade (4-1) and Albus (30-1) will try to change that.
With Renegade the favorite in the first post position, this would be the first favorite to go off at No. 1 since "Lookin at Lucky," a Bob Baffert horse, back in 2010, went off at 3-1 odds and finished 6th.
The only post position to produce double-digit Derby winners since 1930 is the No. 5 post. That gate has produced 10 winners, with the most recent being Always Dreaming in 2017. With 10 winners from 96 starters, the win percentage from post 5 is 10.4% — that's Right to Party (30-1) this year.
Out of only 19 total starters from post No. 20, two horses have won the Derby: Big Brown in 2008 and Rich Strike in 2022. That's a winning percentage of 10.5%, skewed by the small sample — but the gate is on the board with Fulleffort (20-1).
Post 10 also has a strong history at 10.1% (9 wins), occupied this year by Wonder Dean (30-1) — though no international horse has ever won from that group.
Six Speed is looking to become the first horse to ever win the Derby from the No. 17 post. Starters from post 17 are 0-for-46 all-time, and only three starters from that gate have finished in the money.
The Baffert Factor
Bob Baffert enters this year's Derby with two horses: Litmus Test (30-1) and Potente (20-1).
The last Triple Crown winner was Justify in 2018, and before that it was American Pharoah in 2015 — both trained by Baffert, reinforcing his dominance on the sport's biggest stage.
Baffert's six official Kentucky Derby wins are tied for the most by a single trainer alongside Ben Jones. While he has had seven horses cross the finish line first in the Derby, Medina Spirit's victory was later disqualified, meaning it no longer counts toward his official total.
Across all Triple Crown races, Baffert's impact is even greater. His 17 total victories in those races are the most by any trainer in history.
Final Prep Trends
86 Derby winners since 1940. The numbers are remarkably consistent.
- Average finish in final prep, all-time since 1940: 1.8
- Average finish in final prep, last 20 years: 1.9
- 11 of the last 20 winners won their final prep
- 18 of the last 20 winners finished top-3 in their final prep
The two exceptions in the last 20 years (Mine That Bird, Mandaloun) are 1-in-20 events — and Mandaloun only got the win on Medina Spirit's DQ.
Horses outside the top-3 in their last prep this year:
- 4th — Universe, Nearly, Intrepido, Bravaro, Creole Chrome
- 5th — Chip Honcho, Blackout Time, Great White, Napoleon Solo, Start the Ride
- 6th — Cherokee Nation, Courting, Reagan's Honor
- 7th — Iron Honor, Litmus Test, Robusta, Moonstrocity
- 8th — Talk to Me Jimmy
- 10th — Minorinconvenience
- 11th — Buetane
- 12th — Red Zone Runner
Experience Trends
Experience remains one of the most important factors in identifying a Kentucky Derby winner.
Historically, horses entering the Derby with two starts or fewer have almost never succeeded — only one such horse has ever won the race, and that came all the way back in 1883. In this year's field, Emerging Market (15-1) fits that rare and historically unfavorable profile.
Several horses enter with exactly three career starts: Danon Bourbon, Class President, Iron Honor, Potente, Chief Wallabee, and Moonstrocity.
Looking at the historical performance of the three-start group, 29 horses have entered the Derby with three career starts, producing an average finish of 10.5. Only 17% of those horses have finished in the top three, though four notable winners have come from this group:
- Regret (1915)
- Big Brown (2008)
- Justify (2018)
- Mage (2023)
While lightly raced horses can win — recent history has shown that — the overall data suggests experience remains a meaningful advantage.
International Horses
International runners continue to face a major uphill battle in the Kentucky Derby.
Looking at the last 50 horses with experience outside of the United States or Canada, none have gone on to win the Derby — a trend that dates back to 1977. Across that sample, the average finishing position is 10.4, and only two of those 50 horses (4%) have managed to finish in the top three.
This year, that trend directly applies to Danon Bourbon, Wonder Dean and Six Speed.
For additional context, the last horse to win the Kentucky Derby with a similar international profile was Bold Forbes in 1976, representing Puerto Rico. Since then, despite increased global participation and higher-quality entrants, international runners have consistently fallen short on Derby day.
Gray Horses
The data on gray and roan starters is brutal.
45 gray/roan starters have run in the Derby since 2006:
- Average finish: 9.9
- 5 of 45 finished top-3 (11%)
- Zero winners
The last gray winner was Giacomo in 2005, just outside the 20-year window. Before him were Silver Charm (1997) and Spectacular Bid (1979). Since Eight Belles' tragic 2nd-place finish in 2008, no gray has even finished better than third.
This year's six grays — Fulleffort, Pavlovian, Great White, Napoleon Solo, Confessional, Minorinconvenience — face that steep historical headwind. None is among the top-tier favorites either, so the trend would suggest looking elsewhere for the winner.
Letter Trends
Picking the Derby winner by the horse's first letter? There are certainly worse ways.
Top letters by win percentage:
- A — 11.8%
- J — 9.8%
- W — 9.7%
- M — 9.3%
- S — 9.2%
- G — 9.1%
Worst letters:
- E — 3.6% (lowest of any letter)
- T — 4.2%
- I — 4.9%
For this year, that puts Albus on the best historical letter (A), with So Happy, Silent Tactic, Six Speed on the strong-sample S group, and The Puma and Intrepido sitting on the two weakest letters in Derby history.
Longshot History
Wondering if your pick would be the biggest longshot in history?
The 10 biggest Derby longshot wins by $2 win mutuel payout:
- Donerail (1913) — $184.90
- Rich Strike (2022) — $163.90
- Country House (2019) — $132.40
- Mine That Bird (2009) — $103.20
- Giacomo (2005) — $102.60
- Gallahadion (1940) — $72.40
- Charismatic (1999) — $64.60
- Proud Clarion (1967) — $62.20
- Exterminator (1918) — $61.20
- Dark Star (1953) — $51.80
Longest odds to ever win the Derby:
- 1913 — Donerail, 91-1 (Roscoe Goose / Thomas P. Hayes)
- 2022 — Rich Strike, 80-1 (Sonny Leon / RED-TR Racing)
- 2019 — Country House, 65-1 (Flavien Prat / Mrs. J.V. Shields Jr., E.J.M. McFadden Jr. and LNJ Foxwoods)
- 2009 — Mine That Bird, 50-1 (Calvin Borel / Double Eagle Ranch)
- 2005 — Giacomo, 50-1 (Mike Smith / Jerry and Ann Moss)
- 1940 — Gallahadion, 35-1 (Carroll Bierman / Milky Way Farm)
- 1882 — Apollo, 32-1 (Babe Hurd / Morris and Patton)
- 1999 — Charismatic, 31-1 (Chris Antley / Bob and Beverly Lewis)
- 1967 — Proud Clarion, 30-1 (Bob Ussery / Darby Dan Farm)
- 1918 — Exterminator, 29-1 (Willie Knapp / Willis Sharpe Kilmer)
- 2011 — Animal Kingdom, 21-1 (John Velazquez / Team Valor International)
- 1982 — Gato Del Sol, 21-1 (Eddie Delahoussaye / Hancock and Peters)
