The US-Iran conflict has been ongoing since late February. While there have been ceasefires over the course of the conflict, both sides are still gridlocked in coming to a permanent peace deal. Both sides agreed to a 60-day memorandum of understanding (MOU) today which will help with maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, but permanent peace talks are still ongoing. As oil prices remain high and terms have yet to be met, you can trade right now on US-Iran peace deal odds on Kalshi and Polymarket as of Thursday, May 28.
If you are new to prediction market apps, there are welcome bonuses you can claim now to use bonus funds to trade on US-Iran peace deal odds. Sign up with Kalshi promo code ACTION, make $10 in trades, and get a $10 bonus today. Further, create a new prediction market account with Polymarket promo code ACTION, deposit $20, and get $50 in bonus funds for trades on any markets you prefer.
How to Trade on Kalshi, Polymarket US-Iran Peace Deal Odds
Polymarket has the most extensive markets related to politics and global events. Right now, you can trade on US-Iran peace deal odds and other angles of the conflict. Here is an example of the trending market on Polymarket:
US x Iran Permanent Peace Deal By?
After recent engagements on Memorial Day and the US downing drones launched by Iran at a commercial ship this week, it's highly likely both countries will not reach an agreement this week. The US has a history of launching offensives around major holidays and events to avoid stock market reactions. This means if both countries engage in more hostilities, no peace deal will happen with the upcoming Fourth of July as the 250th birthday of the United States.
This is reflected in the Polymarket probabilities shown above. It's more likely an agreement will happen towards the end of summer or even by the end of 2026. Kalshi also offers a way to trade on the conflict, but the market is centered around a nuclear deal between the two countries. This will likely resolve around the same time as a peace deal because Iranian nuclear capability is a red line issue for the United States.
US-Iran Nuclear Deal?
Kalshi offers a market on current US-Iran nuclear deal odds. As noted in how the market can resolve, it will likely include verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program and lifting or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran.
As you can see from above, US-Iran nuclear deal odds are not likely, even by the end of 2026. I would pair this with trading on US-Iran peace deal odds on Polymarket because the permanent peace agreement is not likely without an agreement on nuclear program restrictions and terms.
Steps to Sign Up With Kalshi, Polymarket Referral Code
Here are the easy steps to create your new account on Kalshi before trading on the US-Iran conflict and other markets:
- Create your account with this link on the Kalshi app. Register with your email, name, address, and date of birth.
- Enter the promo code: Input Kalshi promo code ACTION during sign-up to attach the welcome offer to your account.
- Complete identity verification: Submit a valid photo ID, which is required before depositing or trading on the CFTC-regulated exchange.
- Deposit at least $1 via debit card, ACH bank transfer, Apple Pay, wire transfer, or USDC.
- Trade to unlock: Make a cumulative $10 in event contracts across any market. Your $10 bonus is credited once you hit the threshold.
Likewise, it only takes a few minutes to get started on Polymarket referral code:
- Tap this Polymarket sign-up link to start registration in your state.
- Create your account and enter Polymarket promo code ACTION.
- Complete identity verification and log in.
- Deposit at least $20 using your preferred payment method.
- Get a $50 bonus to trade a position on US-Iran peace deal odds or any market you prefer this weekend.
Must be 18 years or older and have a legal, U.S. residential address within the applicable state, D.C., or U.S. territories. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, and OH.
