The "honeymoon phase" of the second Trump administration has transitioned into a period of high-stakes governing, with some Washington insiders now bracing for a Trump Cabinet bloodbath.
While the initial Cabinet was characterized by a rare period of early stability, a series of high-profile departures has shattered that calm.
Kristi Noem was fired as Secretary of Homeland Security in early March 2026, reportedly due to friction over border enforcement logistics. She was followed by Attorney General Pam Bondi, whom President Trump fired on April 2, 2026 after growing increasingly unhappy with her handling of Justice Department files related to Jeffrey Epstein and the DOJ's failure to successfully prosecute several of his political enemies.
Most recently, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer resigned on April 20, 2026, amid a misconduct probe from the Labor Department's inspector general.
With these recent exits now officially on the books, the market for "Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?" has reset, focusing on who will be the next to announce their departure.
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The Current Odds: Who is on the "Hot Seat"?
With the first major Cabinet exit now officially on the books, the Kalshi market for "Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next?" has reset, focusing on the next person to announce their departure.
- Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence) – 29%: Gabbard has surged to the top of the market and now leads all candidates with a 29% implied probability, though her odds have dipped 3 points recently. She occupies one of the most scrutinized seats in Washington. Following the high-profile resignation of Joe Kent, a top official who left citing policy disagreements, renewed focus has landed on the DNI's office. Traders are betting on whether Gabbard will remain in lockstep with the President or if geopolitical friction will create an irreconcilable rift.
- Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense) – 19%: Hegseth has emerged as the second-most likely departure, sitting at 19% after a 4-point drop. His tenure has been marked by controversy, and traders appear to be pricing in ongoing scrutiny of his leadership at the Pentagon.
- Howard Lutnick (Secretary of Commerce) – 17%: Lutnick comes in third at 17%, down 9 points, the steepest recent decline among the top candidates. The sharp drop may reflect traders reassessing the likelihood of his departure as other names have risen in prominence.
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (Secretary of Health and Human Services) – 16%: RFK Jr. has seen the biggest surge in the market, jumping 11 points to reach 16%. His unorthodox policy positions and ongoing tensions with the broader public health establishment appear to be fueling trader interest in his potential exit.
- Chris Wright (Secretary of Energy) – 9%: Wright sits at 9%, with traders watching how his energy deregulation agenda plays out against broader political headwinds.
- Lee Zeldin (EPA Administrator) – 8%: Zeldin holds an 8% implied probability of being the next to leave, as questions linger about the pace and durability of his environmental rollbacks.
- Susie Wiles (White House Chief of Staff) – 8%: Wiles remains the bedrock of the administration's operations, though her odds have ticked up 3 points. Following her breast cancer diagnosis last year, the sheer physical and mental demand of the role has caused the market to hedge on a potential voluntary transition, even as she continues to serve with the President's full confidence.
Here's a handy tool that can help you convert prediction markets odds to American odds.
Is High Presidential Cabinet Turnover Normal?
While a "firing" often generates a news cycle of its own, it is not uncommon for presidential administrations to see early turnover. In fact, modern history shows that the "burnout rate" for top-level officials is remarkably consistent.
- Historical Precedent: Looking back at the first Trump term, the administration saw a 92% turnover rate among "A-team" positions over four years. However, this isn't unique to one party; the Biden administration saw nearly 71% turnover in senior roles by the end of its first term, and the Obama administration famously saw three different Chiefs of Staff in its first two years.
- The "Two-Year Itch": Political scientists often note that many Cabinet members serve for roughly two years—long enough to implement a signature policy—before returning to the private sector or seeking elective office. For traders, the question isn't if someone will leave, but rather who will be the first to blink under the pressure of the 2026 midterm cycle.
Expanding Your Strategy: Related Kalshi Markets
Turnover in Washington is rarely limited to the Cabinet. Kalshi and other political betting sites offer several nuanced markets to help you trade on the overall stability of the Executive Branch:
Who will leave the Trump administration this year? While "Cabinet" refers to the specific heads of 15 departments, the "Administration" is a much larger pool that includes influential White House advisors and agency deputies who do not require Senate confirmation.
When will a member of Trump's Cabinet leave? This market focuses on the timing of the next vacancy rather than naming a specific individual.
Will a cabinet member be impeached? Given the polarized nature of the current Congress, this contract tracks the probability of the House bringing formal articles against a high-profile Secretary.
How many Cabinet members will Trump fire this year? This tracks the total volume of turnover, measuring the overall volatility of the President's top-level team throughout 2026.
The Fine Print: How the Market Resolves
The Kalshi market of who will leave Trump's cabinet next is governed by strict, verifiable rules, as is standard practice when it comes to the best prediction market apps. A member is only considered to have "left" if they quit, are fired, or are impeached—leaving office due to death does not count, nor does a leave of absence.
In the event of a "double departure"—where two members exit at the same time—the rules provide an alphabetical tie-breaker: the person whose last name comes first alphabetically (e.g., Chavez-DeRemer over Wiles) will resolve as the winner.
Related: Kalshi Election Markets Guide
