USA and Sweden meet in the quarterfinals round for the 2026 Winter Olympics. Puck drop is set for 3:10 p.m. EST at Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy. The game will be broadcast live on USA Network and streamed on Peacock.
USA is favored by 1.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 5.5 (-140o/ +120u). USA is a -220 favorite to win outright, while Sweden is +180 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my USA vs Sweden predictions and Olympics picks.
USA vs Sweden Odds, Pick
- USA vs. Sweden Puck Line: USA -1.5 (+115), Sweden +1.5 (-135)
- USA vs. Sweden Over/Under: 5.5 (-140o / +120u)
- USA vs. Sweden Moneyline: USA -220, Sweden +180
USA vs. Sweden Preview
USA
The United States wrapped up group play with a dominant 5–1 victory over Germany on Sunday, finishing 3-0-0-0 and earning a bye into the quarterfinals.
If you nitpick their first three games, the U.S. started slowly in each. They were tied with Latvia in the second period, trailed Denmark after one, and remained scoreless against Germany until the final seconds of the opening period. Still, they powered through, outscoring opponents 16–5 across those games.
I hate to be yet another voice on this, but you can’t help but wonder if they’d be starting faster with Jason Robertson or Cole Caufield on the roster.
Even so, the top line of Jack Eichel and the Tkachuk brothers has bailed them out when needed, and the Guentzel–Matthews–Boldy line looked outstanding against Germany.
Overall, the top six looks encouraging heading into the quarterfinals, and the depth at center gives the coaching staff flexibility to find combinations that work.
The biggest advantage for the United States comes in net, where Connor Hellebuyck is one of the best goaltenders in the world. He hasn’t faced a heavy challenge yet, but he’s stopped 40 of 42 shots for a .952 SV% across two starts. Sweden will provide its first true test of these Olympics, but it’s hard to see him not rising to the occasion.
Lastly, here’s a crazy stat: the U.S. men haven’t beaten Sweden in the Olympics since February 1960, losing or tying each of their last eight matchups. This time, they seem to have the upper hand in almost every area and a great chance to buck that trend.
Sweden
Over the last five periods or so, Sweden has finally looked like the team everyone expected at the start of the Olympics.
The way they dominated much of the third period against Slovakia carried over into a full game as they rolled past Latvia 5–1. Lucas Raymond posted his second straight three-point game and continues to be one of Sweden’s most reliable offensive weapons.
Head coach Sam Hallam faced plenty of scrutiny over Sweden’s first three games. Filip Forsberg, who leads all Swedish NHL players in goals this season, logged just 1:07 against Italy and only 9:31 in the 4–1 loss to Finland. Meanwhile, Oliver Ekman-Larsson didn’t see any time in that first game.
Against Latvia, though, Forsberg broke through with his first Olympic goal, and Ekman-Larsson, along with the rest of Sweden’s defense, looked far more composed.
I think Sweden’s defense is a clear strength that they can leverage against any opponent. Though playing on a back-to-back, it will be interesting to see if the U.S. tries to wear down their blue line as the game goes on.
Jacob Markström got the start again on Tuesday and stopped 20 of 21 shots. He didn’t have to be outstanding, but he was solid. Filip Gustavsson looked like the clear starter heading into the Olympics, but struggled in his two starts, giving up two ugly goals to Italy and appearing overwhelmed against Finland.
Hallam kept his starting goalie plan under wraps against Latvia but hinted that the choice he had already made was a confident one. Given Gustavsson’s struggles, I wouldn’t be surprised if Markström gets the start again against the United States. He wasn’t overly taxed against Latvia and might be the best option, as surprising as that might sound.
Another option would be Jesper Wallstedt; however, I doubt they’d throw a 23-year-old rookie into this situation, even though he’s had some strong stretches with the Wild this season.
USA vs. Sweden Prediction
This is a surprising quarterfinal matchup, with Sweden landing the seventh seed out of group play, but it could be good for the U.S. to finally get tested. Despite a slow start in the Olympics, Sweden has always been the team most capable of challenging Canada and the U.S. for gold.
Both teams are stacked on the blue line. The U.S. has Hughes, Werenski, Sanderson, Slavin, and Faber, while Sweden counters with Forsling, Dahlin, Karlsson, and Hedman. Add Hellebuyck in net for the U.S., and this shapes up as a low-scoring game where both sides will try to limit chances.
With Sweden on a back-to-back, I think this game starts slow, and the U.S. looks to wear down their blue line as it goes along. Combined with the U.S.’s tendency to start slowly, the under is a strong play.
I’m taking plus-money at 5.5, though it’s also available at 6.5 in most places, which would likely be the wiser choice.
Pick: Under 5.5 (+120)
