As soon as the Opening Ceremony concludes on February 6, hundreds of countries will begin competing for gold medals across dozens of sports in the Winter Olympics.
But which country will win the most gold medals? Well, prediction market Kalshi has odds posted for which nation will win the most golds.
You can trade on this and other winter events, as well as thousands of other markets, at Kalshi, which is available in most states. We wrote a full explainer on how it works here.
Winter Olympics Most Gold Medals Odds
Norway Gold Medal Odds
Norway took home the most gold medals in the 2022 games, outdoing second-place Germany 16 to 12. Norway found most of its success in the biathlon and cross-country skiing events, winning 11 individual golds across those two sports.
With many of its skiers set to return in 2026, Norway should be able to stack up with any other country, just as it did four years ago.
United States Gold Medal Odds
The U.S. managed just nine gold medals in Beijing, a number it hasn't passed since 2002 in Salt Lake City. Still, that was the third-most gold medals of any country and tied the U.S. with the host country, China.
The American team's performance was a bit more spread out than Norway's, as the nine golds were won across five different sports. The U.S.'s most dominant sport was figure skating, where it won both the Men's Single Skating and Team events.
Germany Gold Medal Odds
Germany captured 12 gold medals in its last Winter Olympics, marking the fourth time in the past seven Winter Olympic games that Germany has matched or exceeded that mark.
The Germans dominated luge, sweeping all four events to make up a third of their gold medal count. They weren't too shabby in bobsleigh either, taking the gold in three of four events, while failing to podium only in Women's Monobob.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
