Atlético Madrid and Club Brugge will face off today in the first leg of the Champions League play-offs, with kick-off scheduled for 3:00 p.m. EST at Jan Breydel Stadium in Bruges, Belgium.
Atlético is favored at a -112 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-150o / +120u) goals.
Let's get into my Atlético vs. Brugge prediction.
Atlético vs. Brugge Prediction
Pick: Draw
My Atlético vs. Brugge best bet is for the match to end in a draw.
Atlético vs. Brugge Odds
| Atlético Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -120 | 2.5 -150o / 120u | -112 |
| Brugge Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -125 | 2.5 -150o / 120u | +290 |
Atlético vs. Brugge Picks
Pick: Draw (+250)
Brugge has emerged as a pleasant surprise in Europe this season, securing a place in the top 24 with two consecutive victories in the final rounds of the league phase.
While Atlético are without a loss in the last eight away matches, they’ve drawn three, implying that option could be a value pick here.
At home in Europe, the hosts have failed to secure points against Arsenal only, but demonstrated their ability to compete with Spain's best by holding Barcelona to a 3-3 draw.
Levante, Galatasaray and Real Sociedad were all priced as outsiders at home against the Atleti, but held the visitors to a draw just recently.
Even domestically, Diego Simeone’s side were held to a draw on the road five times in 11 games. Only Betis have more ties on the road than Atleti.
Two of the past four games between these teams ended in draws, including the most recent match.
Atlético vs. Brugge Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Atlético | Draw | Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| 52.1% | 22.3% | 25.6% |
Projected Total Goals
| Atlético | Total Goals | Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| 1.83 | 3.09 | 1.26 |
Atlético vs. Brugge Betting Analysis
The Belgians secured their qualification in the final two matches of the league phase with large victories over Kairat (4-1) and Marseille (3-0).
Brugge finished 19th in this season's league phase and are experienced in European knock-out ties. In fact, they advanced past the play-offs in the 2024/25 season by eliminating Atalanta.
Atlético have looked dangerous in recent weeks, beating Barcelona 4-0 in the Copa del Rey last Thursday, and will be expecting to earn a place in the Champions League’s round of 16. However, the Belgian underdogs have shown they are capable of troubling Europe’s best teams at home.
As mentioned, in this Champions League edition, Brugge already secured a prestigious 3-3 draw against Barcelona at home on November 25th.
Atleti are in the knockout phase of the competition for the 11th time in the last 13 seasons, always under Diego Simeone's leadership. However, this is a crucial moment for his side, as they have lost four of their last six knockout-phase ties in the Champions League.
Bookmakers favour Simeone's side, but the outcome is not clear-cut, with the latest odds giving Atletico Madrid a probability of victory just over 52%.
