Canada and Czechia meet in the quarterfinals round for the 2026 Winter Olympics. Puck drop is set for 10:40 a.m. EST at Milano Santagiulia Ice Hockey Arena in Milan, Italy. The game will be broadcast live on USA Network and streamed on Peacock.
Canada is favored by 2.5 on the puck line, with the over/under set at 5.5 (-165o/ +140u). Canada is a -950 favorite to win outright, while Czechia is +625 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Canada vs Czechia predictions and Olympics picks.
Canada vs Czechia Odds, Pick
- Canada vs. Czechia Puck Line: Canada -2.5 (-155), Czechia +2.5 (+130)
- Canada vs. Czechia Over/Under: 5.5 (-165o / +140u)
- Canada vs. Czechia Moneyline: Canada -950, Czechia +625
Canada vs. Czechia Preview
Canada
I've already knocked on wood in case Canadians are going to come at me for jinxing their team, but the preliminaries have been a total cakewalk for Canada.
And it's hard to find a more compelling forward group. Connor McDavid is leading all Olympic skaters with the most points, and it's probably the least surprising part of this tournament.
However, what is surprising is how little the magnitude of the Olympics has affected youngster Macklin Celebrini. He's currently tied with Tim Stutzle and Nick Oleson for the Olympic lead in goals scored with four, and is tied for second in plus/minus.
What has truly made Canada shine has been its depth. It's received quality play by Bo Horvat, who's already tucked in two goals, as well as Tom Wilson, Mitch Marner and Mark Stone.
Oddly enough, we haven't seen Sam Reinhart make much of an impact, though. Reinhart has been one of the NHL's best goal scorers for the past three seasons, but has so far gone invisible in this tournament.
And having him play on the fourth line surely isn't maximizing his potential. As good as Reinhart is, he isn't a grinder, and he needs to play with skill players. No slight on Horvat and Seth Jarvis, but why not put Reinhart beside Nathan MacKinnon, who's been a steamroller all Olympics?
But what do I know?
I anticipate that Jordan Binnington will start again for the qualifiers, as that seems to be what Canada has been bent on doing during international play.
And speaking of which, whatever international play does to Binnington is remarkable because he's looked like an actual competent goaltender again. In two starts, he's playing to a .950 SV% and holds one shutout.
Czechia
What an exciting game it was on Tuesday morning between Czechia and Denmark in the qualifiers.
A game that started with a 0-0 first period eventually turned into a five-goal second period with the Czechs leading 3-2. It looked like Czechia was going to run away with this game after taking a 3-1 lead, but then it let up a second Danish goal with just under three minutes left in the second.
This has been a frustrating Olympics for the Czechs, though. They clearly have the talent to do some significant damage, but as I've watched them, I've noticed a lot of lackadaisical play.
What helped Denmark get on the board on Tuesday was a nifty tic-tac-toe play by Joachim Blichfeld on an Alexander True goal.
The problem was, it seemed like the Czechs were coasting through that play.
I've harped on the age of this Czechia blue line, and it was quite evident during that play. Radko Gudas, who can throw the body with the best of them, let True get past him without any pressure, and his partner, Michal Kempny, was standing around.
It wasn't an encouraging look for this team, and if they want to get past Canada, that effort must improve.
I just don't see it happening. Lukas Dostal had to bail out this team far too many times against the Danes, whether it be from silly penalties or the aforementioned poor effort. Based on what I've seen, on a back-to-back against possibly the deadliest team in these Olympics, it may end up being a long day for Czechia.
Canada vs. Czechia Prediction
If you polled me earlier in this tournament, I probably wouldn't think this was a mismatch.
But after seeing Canada whoop Czechia earlier 5-0, and the Czechs coming off a heated game yesterday, I think this is a total mismatch.
Bet365 seems to think the difference in this game is 2.5 goals, but I think it's more. You're not getting very good value at 2.5 since the odds are listed at -155, which is why I'm more interested in pressing my luck and going for the jugular.
If you lock in Canada -3.5, you can get +130 odds, which is a tremendous payout, given the fact that Canada stomped the Czechs by five goals earlier.
Martin Necas and David Pastrnak may be the only real threats for Canada, but the rest of the Canadian roster is too deadly to ignore. Take the alt puck line, and back the more rested and better team.
Pick: Canada -3.5 (+130)
