Team USA faces its toughest test yet at the 2026 Winter Olympics as it prepares for Wednesday's quarterfinal showdown against Sweden, with Kalshi traders pricing USA's chances at 78 cents (78% probability) on the market.
The prediction market shows strong confidence in the Americans despite facing one of hockey's traditional powerhouses. With 686 contracts traded and the current bid-ask spread at 67-78 cents, bettors are backing USA's perfect tournament run over Sweden's star-studded roster that includes Gabriel Landeskog, Mika Zibanejad, and William Nylander.
If want to trade on Grand Canyon vs. San Diego State at Kalshi, sign up using the Kalshi promo code. This prediction market app is legal in most states and offers a variety of unique markets beyond college ball.
USA vs Sweden Odds
Sweden punched its ticket to the quarterfinals Tuesday with a dominant 5-1 victory over Latvia to set up this marquee matchup. Despite finishing 2-1 in round-robin play, the Swedes were forced into a qualification game due to goal differential, finishing behind Finland and Slovakia in their group tiebreaker.
"They're one of the powerhouses in the world, they've been playing really well this tournament," USA alternate captain Matthew Tkachuk told USA Today. "I think every single player plays in the NHL, so we're very familiar with a lot of those players."
The Americans earned their quarterfinal berth by securing first place in Group C with a 5-1 victory over Germany, highlighted by captain Auston Matthews' three-point performance. Coach Mike Sullivan called it their "most complete game of the tournament."
The 78% market probability reflects USA's undefeated record and high seeding, but Sweden's NHL-heavy lineup presents a formidable challenge. With players like Adrian Kempe and Filip Forsberg finding their scoring touch against Latvia, Sweden has the talent to upset the market's expectations in what promises to be a classic Olympic hockey battle.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment, and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
