White Sox vs. Guardians Odds & Betting Predictions - October 5, 2026

*Playoff Dogs* Overall: 86-66-0,57% (ROI:29%) Season:1-0-0,100% (ROI:130%) #TSA

(Novig) I know Sean went against this on today's Payoff Pitch, partially because Williams has struggled against the White Sox, but just too much moving in his favor. Weather not necessarily K friendly (-1%), BUT it is cold and will knock down fly balls with the wind blowing in at double digits. Williams biggest problem 3.84 xERA due to 11.4% Barrels/BBE, 46.6 HardHit%. Knocking down some of those fly balls should allow him to pitch deeper into this game. Williams 35.3 K% v LHBs (30.2% v RHBs). I’m projecting 23 batters with these weather conditions, which would be 16 from LH side. First 23 in CWS order avg 24.6 K% vs RHP. With this lineup construction, the park offers a 4% strikeout boost with Gabe Morales nearly another 6%. Take away the 1% for weather and Williams gets around a 9% environmental boost. I think this is a massive upside spot for Williams and would even play him if I projected only 21 batters. Novig is currently offering 48.5-49% (+106 to +104). If you can only get something above -110, I’d cut to 0.5u and would play to around -140.

@cowhitchurch https://www.youtube.com/live/hGqa3ObNpIQ?is=4ZfIg0rXsWzQb5Sm