If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
The Cleveland Guardians host the Chicago White Sox on October 5, 2026. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 5:00 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on truTV.
The Guardians are favored by -154 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The White Sox are +130 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 6.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and White Sox vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
White Sox vs Guardians Prediction
- White Sox vs Guardians Pick: Over 6.5 (Play to -140)
My White Sox vs Guardians best bet is on the over total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
White Sox vs Guardians Odds
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -182 | 6.5 -115o / -105u | +130 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 6.5 -115o / -105u | -154 |
- White Sox vs Guardians moneyline: White Sox +130, Guardians -154
- White Sox vs Guardians over/under: 6.5 (-115o / -105u)
- White Sox vs Guardians spread: White Sox +1.5 (-182), Guardians -1.5 (+150)
White Sox vs Guardians Probable Pitchers
| Anthony Kay (LHP, CHW) | Stat | Gavin Williams (RHP, CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-9 | W-L | 14-8 |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.5 |
| 4.44/5.05 | ERA / xERA | 3.76/3.82 |
| 4.75/4.65 | FIP / xFIP | 3.47/2.85 |
| 10.3% | K-BB% | 25.1% |
| 43.4% | GB% | 43.5% |
| .293 | BABIP | .288 |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 103 | Location+ | 105 |
White Sox vs Guardians MLB Betting Preview
Chicago White Sox Betting Preview
Game 2 is often the biggest game of the ALDS. If the home team won Game 1, they need this win to hold serve and need just one on the road to win the series. On the flip side, losing one of these home games, as the Guardians already did, gives the opposing team the home-field advantage.
The White Sox take a 1-0 series lead into game two and will start with Anthony Kay as an "opener." I expect Kay to pitch two innings, partly to make Steven Vogt use his bench early. Kay tossed 1 1/3 scoreless innings in game one, and he's able to give 3-4 innings since 31 of his 33 outings this year were starts.
Manager Will Venable indicated that Sean Burke will follow Kay, but didn't say when. Burke pitched four innings and struck out eight Astros in his postseason debut. The imposing 6-6, 240-pound Burke held the Guardians in check three times this year, throwing 17 innings and giving up three earned runs.
This was Burke's breakout campaign. He led the White Sox with a 3.34 ERA and was the staff's most reliable pitcher. Between his elite extension and mid-90s fastball, Burke racks up a 9.94 K/9. He also doesn't allow a lot of slugging, so the Guardians will have to rely on their death by dink and dunks to beat Burke.
Chicago got a boost from Munetaki Murakami in game one with a two-run homer that proved to be the difference-making play. That's what makes this White Sox team a real threat. They can flip a game in one swing with hitters like Murakami, Miguel Vargas, and Colson Montgomery having 30+ home-run power — which led to the team hitting the fifth-most homers in MLB.
On the flip side, the White Sox can put up a clunker if the long balls don't come, as they struck out over 24% of the time (fifth-highest).
Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview
Chicago will have to ramp up for big velocity from Guardians breakout star, Gavin Williams, who posted a 3.76 ERA with a 12.11 K/9 in a career-high 184 1/3 innings. The White Sox had decent success against Williams, scoring two runs in two of his three outings and three in his other.
In a vacuum, I love this matchup for Williams due to his experience in the playoffs and the White Sox strikeout issues. However, he can spray the ball at times and the long balls are an issue.
The Guardians offense is better than you probably think, and their zero-run showing in game one won't help their perception.
In September, Cleveland posted an 111 wRC+, the eighth-best in MLB. Four hitters (Travis Bazzana, Brayan Rocchio, Steven Kwan, and Chase DeLauter posted a 130 wRC+ or better. Rocchio is the one shocker in that group since Bazzana, Kwan, and DeLauter were lava hot in the second half.
My one issue with this Cleveland lineup is Vogt's unwillingness to drop Jose Ramirez from second in the lineup. Let's face it: Ramirez has been bad all year. Take his name away, and batting someone with a 92 wRC+ second is a dicey choice.
White Sox vs Guardians Pick, Betting Analysis
Before the line dropped, I thought I'd want to play the under here. However, with the total sitting at 6.5 at -115, I have to play the over.
Williams will likely give up a few runs to a strong offense, and this Guardians offense is too good to stay silent for long.
Pick: Over 6.5 (Play to -140)
