(FD) Hasn't hit this # in 8 starts (early June). 12.6 K%, but 10 SwStr% over that stretch. Even adjusting his K rate upward for that, still can't get beyond 17%. Park suppresses Ks 3% too and roof should be closed with chance of rain.

(B365) Have a 2 run gap between Wheeler and Phillips, even just bet the under on the latter’s K prop, but this is inflated because MIA losing streak. MIA proj. LU avg 107/113/112 wRC+ Hm/v RHP/L30 days, PHI 79/97/90. MIA proj defense 35 FRV edge. MIA pen even slightly better pen estimators L30 days. PHI also off grueling series with NYY, including Sun. night game before flying to Miami. It feels gross, but has to be done.

(B365) I’ll defer to BARTOLO since Scherzer has six starts all season and one since April (5.72 wFIP, 5.09 proj.) Even using the latter number, Alvarez has been a full run better. I have him almost exactly at four on the dot. WAS proj LU 106/101/127 wRC+ Hm/v RHP/L7 days, TOR 71/91/86. Even TOR proj. defense only 2 FRV edge. WAS 13 BRR edge too. TOR pen estimators almost a run better L30 days, so splitting unit 60/40 between F5/full.

(B365) See 1st F5 bet notes. Full game line changed quickly, so now all F5.

(FD) Cecconi 4.60 ERA aligns w/ weighted estimators around 4.5. Burns a run above 2.42 ERA, so about a full run separation, though Burns has struck out just 12 of 66 and CIN has pulled around 90 pitches 2 of L3. He just surpassed last year’s innings total. With Ramirez back, proj. CLE LU 98/98/81 wRC+ Rd/v RHP/L7 days, CIN 105/96/100. CLE 35 FRV, 5 BRR edges. CLE pen estimators more than a run better L30 days. Splitting unit between F5/full.

(FD) See F5 notes.

(FD) Park suppresses scoring 4%, forecast could give 0-5% boost, no umpire yet. Fried looked fine first game back, weighted estimators just above three. Schultz not good, but wEST still three-quarters run below 6.04 ERA. CWS proj LU 90/86/86 wRC+ Hm/v LHP/L30 days, NYY 105/105/53. Proj defenses combine for 7 FRV, NYY pen estimators L30 days just below four, CWS 2nd best MLB.

(B365) Struck out just 11 of 87 for Cubs. With great defense, they have him throwing more fastballs/sinkers, fewer breaking balls or bat missing pitches. Only 13.6 K% vs RHBs this season, proj. to face 16 (22 BF total). First 22 in STL proj. LU avg 18.1 K% vs LHP. Park suppresses strikeouts 11%, weather maybe another 3-4%.

(B365) Both pitchers have pitched better than their results (Sproat 5.09 ERA, Mahle 5.31 ERA), but the former by only half a run and the latter by a full run. While Sproat has had better results over the last month (3.71 ERA), it comes with a 4.81 SIERA and .341 xwOBA. Mahle 4.68, .304 over the same stretch. Give MIL proj. LU (avg 120/118/104 wRC+ Rd/v RHP/L30 days) slight edge over SFG (96/111/105). Proj. defenses both within 1 FRV of zero. MIL pen ½ run better L30 days. Have this closer to even.